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We now know that these “facts” were false. After invading in 2003, the United States turned Iraq upside down looking for WMDs but found nothing. It was one of the worst—arguably the worst—intelligence failure in modern history. The IC was humiliated. There were condemnations in the media, official investigations, and the familiar ritual of intelligence officials sitting in hearings, faces sweaty, expressions grim, as congressional committees took turns tearing into them.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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