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In 1920 he was nearly wiped out when his foreign currency forecasts turned out to be horribly wrong. He found his footing again and made a fortune for himself and others in the 1920s. But just like Mary Simpson in 2008, Keynes didn’t see the disaster of 1929 coming and he again lost big. But he bounced back and did even better than before. For Keynes, failure was an opportunity to learn—to identify mistakes, spot new alternatives, and try again.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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