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Partway through the trial, Cochrane met with a group of the cardiologists who had tried to stop his experiment. He told them that he had preliminary results. The difference in outcomes between the two treatments was not statistically significant, he emphasized, but it appeared that patients might do slightly better in the cardiac care units. “They were vociferous in their abuse: ‘Archie,’ they said, ‘we always thought you were unethical. You must stop the trial at once.’” But then Cochrane revealed he had played a little trick. He had reversed the results: home care had done slightly better ...more
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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