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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock

Again, Fermi-ization is key. When Bill Flack Fermi-ized the Arafat-polonium question, he realized there were several pathways to a “yes” answer:

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

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