Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

Orders in the Wehrmacht were often short and simple—even when history hung in the balance. “Gentlemen, I demand that your divisions completely cross the German borders, completely cross the Belgian borders and completely cross the River Meuse,” a senior officer told the commanders who would launch the great assault into Belgium and France on May 10, 1940. “I don’t care how you do it, that’s completely up to you.”10 And Auftragstaktik wasn’t limited to senior officers, or even officers. Right down to junior officers, NCOs, and the lowliest private, soldiers were told what the commander wanted accomplished but were expected to use their judgment about how best to do that given what they were seeing. The battlefield “requires soldiers who can think and act independently, who can make calculated, decisive, and daring use of every situation, and who understand that victory depends on each individual,” the command manual stated.11