Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

As the surgeon and historian Ira Rutkow observed, physicians who furiously debated the merits of various treatments and theories were “like blind men arguing over the colors of the rainbow.”7

meaningful accountability requires more than getting upset when something goes awry.

For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.