Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

Gaps like that are far from unusual. Research on calibration—how closely your confidence matches your accuracy—routinely finds people are too confident.10 But overconfidence is not an immutable law of human nature. Meteorologists generally do not suffer from it. Neither do seasoned bridge players. That’s because both get clear, prompt feedback. The meteorologist who calls for torrential rain tomorrow will know he was off if he wakes to sunshine. Bridge players, who estimate how many “tricks” they will win, get results at the end of each hand. If their forecasts fail, they know it. That is essential. To learn from failure, we must know when we fail. The baby who flops backward does. So does the boy who skins his knee when he falls off the bike. And the accountant who puts an easy putt into a sand trap. And because they know, they can think about what went wrong, adjust, and try again.