The analogy between forecasting and bicycling is pretty good but, as with all analogies, the fit isn’t perfect. With bike riding, the “try, fail, analyze, adjust, and try again” cycle typically takes seconds. With forecasting, it can take months or years. Plus there is the bigger role of chance in forecasting. Cyclists who follow best cycling practices can usually expect excellent outcomes but forecasters should be more tentative. Following best practices improves their odds of winning but less reliably so than in games where chance plays smaller roles.
