Kaspar Papli

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If you didn’t know the punch line of EPJ before you read this book, you do now: the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee. But as students are warned in introductory statistics classes, averages can obscure. Hence the old joke about statisticians sleeping with their feet in an oven and their head in a freezer because the average temperature is comfortable.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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