Stewart Morris

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But our ancestors couldn’t maintain a state of constant alert. The cognitive cost would have been too great. They needed worry-free zones. The solution? Ignore small chances and use the two-setting dial as much as possible. Either it is a lion or it isn’t. Only when something undeniably falls between those two settings—only when we are compelled—do we turn the mental dial to maybe.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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