Suppose you weight the strength of these arguments, they feel roughly equal, and you settle on a probability of roughly 50%. But notice what’s missing? The time frame. It obviously matters. To use an extreme illustration, the probability of the regime falling in the next twenty-four hours must be less—likely a lot less—than the probability that it will fall in the next twenty-four months. To put this in Kahneman’s terms, the time frame is the “scope” of the forecast.
