Probability judgments should be explicit so we can consider whether they are as accurate as they can be. And if they are nothing but a guess, because that’s the best we can do, we should say so. Knowing what we don’t know is better than thinking we know what we don’t. This comes into focus if we think about forecasting carefully. But we often don’t—leading to absurdities like twenty-year geopolitical forecasts and bestsellers about the coming century. I think both Taleb and Kahneman help explain why we keep making these sorts of mistakes. Kahneman and other pioneers of modern psychology have
...more
