Bowden’s account reminded me of an offhand remark that Amos Tversky made some thirty years ago, when we served on that National Research Council committee charged with preventing nuclear war. In dealing with probabilities, he said, most people only have three settings: “gonna happen,” “not gonna happen,” and “maybe.” Amos had an impish sense of humor. He also appreciated the absurdity of an academic committee on a mission to save the world. So I am 98% sure he was joking. And 99% sure his joke captures a basic truth about human judgment.
