In many physics and engineering faculties, Fermi estimates or Fermi problems—strange tests like “estimate the number of square inches of pizza consumed by all the students at the University of Maryland during one semester”—are part of the curriculum. I shared Levitin’s discussion of Fermi estimation with a group of superforecasters and it drew a chorus of approval. Sandy Sillman told me Fermi estimation was so critical to his job as a scientist working with atmospheric models that
