there is a subtler explanation for Bill Flack’s underreaction to a Japanese official saying Shinzo Abe would visit the Yasukuni Shrine. The political costs of visiting Yasukuni were steep. And Abe had no pressing need to placate his conservative constituents by going, so the benefit was negligible. Conclusion? Not going looked like the rational decision. But Bill ignored Abe’s own feelings. Abe is a conservative nationalist. He had visited Yasukuni before, although not as prime minister. He wanted to go again. Reflecting on his mistake, Bill told me, “I think that the question I was really
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