Will China become the world’s leading economic power in the mid-twenty-first century? Many are sure it will. And it might. But in the 1980s and early 1990s, there was an even more prevalent belief that Japan would soon dominate the global economy, and its subsequent decline should at least give pause to those asserting China’s ascendancy.12 But it often doesn’t because when looking back it seems strange that anyone ever thought Japan would take the lead. Of course Japan would falter! It’s obvious—in hindsight—just as the prediction that China will not seems obvious today.
