Decisive: How to make better choices in life and work

by Chip Heath

Kahneman says that we are quick to jump to conclusions because we give too much weight to the information that’s right in front of us, while failing to consider the information that’s just offstage. He called this tendency “what you see is all there is.”

44% of lawyers would recommend that a young person not pursue a career in law.

it’s hard to correct a bias in our mental processes just by being aware of it.

“Any time in life you’re tempted to think, ‘Should I do this OR that?’ instead, ask yourself, ‘Is there a way I can do this AND that?’

Cole is fighting the first villain of decision making, narrow framing, which is the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, to see them in binary terms.

When people have the opportunity to collect information from the world, they are more likely to select information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.

we often pretend that we want truth when we’re really seeking reassurance:

When we want something to be true, we will spotlight the things that support it, and then, when we draw conclusions from those spotlighted scenes, we’ll congratulate ourselves on a reasoned decision.

There’s one critical ingredient missing from this kind of analysis: emotion. Grove’s decision wasn’t difficult because he lacked options or information; it was difficult because he felt conflicted.

the analysis left him paralyzed, and it took a quick dose of detachment—seeing things from the perspective of his successor—to break the paralysis.

the fourth villain of decision making is overconfidence. People think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold.

A study showed that when doctors reckoned themselves “completely certain” about a diagnosis, they were wrong 40% of the time.

We have too much confidence in our own predictions. When we make guesses about the future, we shine our spotlights on information that’s close at hand, and then we draw conclusions from that information.

You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options. You analyze your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one. Then you live with it. But you’ll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold.

analyze your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving info. So … → Reality-Test Your Assumptions.

short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one. So … → Attain Distance Before Deciding.

you’ll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold. So … → Prepare to Be Wrong.

you are still going to make a healthy share of bad decisions.

it’s usually easier to see other people’s biases than your own.

Much has been written in recent years about intuitive decisions20, which can be surprisingly quick and accurate. But—and this is a critical “but”—intuition is only accurate in domains where it has been carefully trained.