The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver

Information becomes knowledge only when it’s placed in context. Without it, we have no way to differentiate the signal from the noise, and our search for the truth might be swamped by false positives. What isn’t acceptable under Bayes’s theorem is to pretend that you don’t have any prior beliefs. You should work to reduce your biases, but to say you have none is a sign that you have many. To state your beliefs up front—to say “Here’s where I’m coming from”12—is a way to operate in good faith and to recognize that you perceive reality through a subjective filter.