The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver

this book is emphatically against the nihilistic viewpoint that there is no objective truth.

When we can’t fit a square peg into a round hole, we’ll usually blame the peg—when

Voulgaris’s big secret is that he doesn’t have a big secret. Instead, he has a thousand little secrets, quanta of information that he puts together one vector at a time.

Laplace came to view probability as a waypoint between ignorance and knowledge.

global warming is a problem wherein even if the politics are local, the science is not.

This book is less about what we know than about the difference between what we know and what we think we know.