The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver

However, the fact that the few theories we can test have produced quite poor results suggests that many of the ideas we haven’t tested are very wrong as well.

I don't think you can assert that.

If you borrow $20 to wager on the Redskins to beat the Cowboys, that is a leveraged bet.*

You now have my attention.

The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.

Evidence you should not watch the news.