The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver

There are so many hypotheses to test, so many data sets to mine—but a relatively constant amount of objective truth.

key word: 'constant'

There is no denying that this is a detailed book—in part because that is often where the devil lies, and in part because my view is that a certain amount of immersion in a topic will provide disproportionately more insight than an executive summary.

On the losing side were those experts whose predictions were cited most frequently in the media. The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.