More on this book
Community
Kindle Notes & Highlights
by
Reid Hoffman
You’ll never be fully certain. Don’t conflate uncertainty with risk.
Risk is associated with downside versus upside. Do you have enough informstion to determine what those possiblities are most likely? If not, then its risky. If so, then proceed even if you do not have all the info. You can still make a risk-managed decision.
In all situations, you simply cannot know everything about all possible pros and cons.
But uncertainty does not automatically mean something is risky.
But the biggest and best opportunities frequently are the ones with the most question marks. Don’t let uncertainty lull you into overestimating the risk.
Consider age and stage. What will the risks be to you in a few years?
Consider higher order consequences
If something worthwhile will be riskier in five years than it is now, be more aggressive about taking it on now.
Pursue Opportunities Where Others Misperceive the Risk
there will also be times when people like you—people with similar assets, aspirations, and operating within the same market realities—will perceive something as riskier than it actually is.
This creates an opening for you to go after an opportunity that your peers may be unwisely avoiding.
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when ot...
This highlight has been truncated due to consecutive passage length restrictions.
Rather, you pursue opportunities that have a lower risk than your peers think, but which are still high-reward.
Jobs that pay less in cash but offer tremendous learning.
Part-time or contract gigs that are less “stable” than full-time jobs.
they are a terrific way to build the skills and relationships that help you pivot into a wide range of Plan B’s.
Hiring someone without much experience but who’s a fast learner and much cheaper.
An opportunity where the risks are highly publicized.
That so many entrepreneurs perceive recession timing as high-risk actually makes it lower-risk.
Contrarian...coincidence? Hindsight seems risky, but at the time focused on opportunity and recession doesn't seem a risk because founders are resourceful!
SHORT-TERM RISK INCREASES LONG-TERM STABILITY
the unexpected, rare, high-impact event.
The way to intelligently manage risk is to make yourself resilient to these shocks by pursuing those opportunities with some volatility baked in.
the less volatile the environment, the more destructive a black swan will be when it comes.
illusion of st...
This highlight has been truncated due to consecutive passage length restrictions.
In the long run, though, low volatility leads to increased vulnerability, because it renders the system less resilient to unthinkable external shocks.
New and old systems need stress testing, need to test that they're still adapted to the environment. Otherwise, sudden changes can pull the rug out
This paradox—high short-term risk leading to low long-term risk—holds true for careers as well.
Without frequent, contained risk taking, you are setting yourself up for a major dislocation at some point in the future.
Some job paths automatically provide regular volatility (e.g., entrepreneurship or freelancing). In other jobs you’ll have to introduce shocks and disruptions manually.
join and create groups, be in motion, take on side projects, hustle.
Pretending you can avoid risk causes you to miss opportunities that can change your life.
When you’re resilient, you can play for big opportunities with less worry about the possible consequences of unanticipated hiccups.
For the start-up of you, the only long-term answer to risk is resilience.
the best way to put distance between you and the crowd, is to do an outstanding job with information.
How you gather, manage, and use information will determine whether you win or lose.”
What will get you somewhere is being able to access the information you need, when you need it.
gathering intelligence: actionable, timely information on all facets of their business,
You, too, need business intelligence to navigate these challenges.
You get it by talking to people in your network.
Yet your network is frequently a better—and sometimes the only—fount of pivotal intelligence.
Summers recalls asking Sheryl to research what the effects might have been of a bailout in 1917 in Russia.
What Sheryl did was call Richard Pipes,” a Harvard historian who specialized in the Russian Revolution.
Second, people offer personalized, contextualized advice.
Third, people can filter information you get from other sources.
People help focus your attention on the intelligence that’s actionable and relevant.
search literacy—the ability to enter the optimal search terms, wade through the ocean of results, and follow the links that lead to the best information.
The bigger advantage is gained by network literacy: knowing how to conceptualize, access, and benefit from the information flowing through your social network.
Your coworkers, business colleagues, allies, and acquaintances are each like a unique sensor that can relay different bits of information.
combine and compare multiple streams of information
and their blended perspectives produce rich intelligence.
So how to figure who has the intelligence you need at any given moment, and how to go about extracting it most effectively?
Pose Questions to Your Entire Network
(1) ask targeted questions to specific individuals in your network
