Superforecasting


Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
Thinking, Fast and Slow
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The Doors of Perception & Heaven and Hell
Common Sense
The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision
The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It . . . Every Time
Other People's Money: The Real Business of Finance
A History of Warfare
System Effects
The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
You Are Not So Smart
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy