Decision Theory


Thinking, Fast and Slow
An Introduction to Decision Theory (Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy)
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Be careful... any time you find yourself defining the "winner" as someone other than the agent who is currently smiling from on top of a giant heap of utility. ...more
Eliezer Yudkowsky

Nick Bostrom
Human individuals and human organizations typically have preferences over resources that are not well represented by an "unbounded aggregative utility function". A human will typically not wager all her capital for a fifty-fifty chance of doubling it. A state will typically not risk losing all its territory for a ten percent chance of a tenfold expansion. [T]he same need not hold for AIs. An AI might therefore be more likely to pursue a risky course of action that has some chance of giving it co ...more
Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies

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