Decision Theory


Thinking, Fast and Slow
An Introduction to Decision Theory (Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy)
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
Nick Bostrom
Human individuals and human organizations typically have preferences over resources that are not well represented by an "unbounded aggregative utility function". A human will typically not wager all her capital for a fifty-fifty chance of doubling it. A state will typically not risk losing all its territory for a ten percent chance of a tenfold expansion. [T]he same need not hold for AIs. An AI might therefore be more likely to pursue a risky course of action that has some chance of giving it co ...more
Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Eliezer Yudkowsky
Be careful... any time you find yourself defining the "winner" as someone other than the agent who is currently smiling from on top of a giant heap of utility ...more
Eliezer Yudkowsky

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