U.S. Open Fantasy Preview
With a laptop malfunction on top of mind, please excuse my brevity this week. I will publish this now but check back as I may add more thoughts as the day goes on (time permitting).
The course this week if Chambers Bay and if you haven’t heard, it’s UNIQUE. It plays as short at 7,400 yards (which is still long) and can stretch out past 7,900 if needed. I think the USGA will play it by ear based on wind direction to set up the distances every day. There could be a couple days where the yardage plays similarly but the wind and or tee box setups could make it play entirely different. The grass is fescue throughout but the greens have patches of poa + bentgrass as well. The firmness throughout is evident as it’s basically like playing on a trampoline.
Built on pure sand, it would take a monsoon to get this course to play soft. It will play firm and fast all week, and the toughest task will be to keep it from getting baked out.
Bombers say it’s a bomber’s paradise. Short hitters say you don’t need distance due to firmness. Local Michael Putnam says the course has changed over the years, but not much while local Ryan Moore says it’s a completely different course when even compared to last week. The commonality this week appears to be that everyone is on a different page.
As a tiebreaker I want golfers that are longest in their threesome. Gives ability to see how the conditions are playing for the day before attacking pin. With so much unknown, this could give you a slight edge.
U.S. Open Trends
-Jerry Pate (1976) was the last to win the U.S. Open without 4+ Major starts prior to winning. Go with experience over form if needed.
-9 of last 10 winners had at least one Top 30 in a previous US Open. It’s key to know your golfer can overcome a USGA-setup course.
-8 of last 9 winners had at least one top 10 in their five starts leading into US Open. This is looking at PGA TOUR starts only. They don’t have to be en fuego, but they need to have shown signs of life recently. Sorry Adam Scott, Patty Reed, Charl, G-Mac, etc.
Players to Watch
Dustin Johnson… He flamed out last week and called it quits after nine holes. He’s still having a great year overall and remains one of the top Links golfers. I can almost guarantee he’ll win one of the three remaining majors. Could this be the one? Certainly.
Billy Horschel… He’s hot which means you keep riding him. He Periscoped from the course a few weeks ago so you know he’s done some preparation.
Jordan Spieth… Spieth’s caddie having knowledge of the course will be nice but it may also lead to Spieth questioning why he didn’t tell him about particular bounces or could be information overload if he tells him about every potential bounce or possible angle. Overall, I’m considering this a small factor but Spieth’s out-of-this-world talent is really what makes him appealing.
Rickie Fowler… Only DJ and Sergio have gained more strokes at the Open Championship since 2010. He loves some links golf. Give this big-game hunter a strong look this week.
Sergio Garcia… Speaking of Sergio, he loves a links-style layout and will get overlooked by many due to his reputation as a choke artist. I will gladly take someone that near the top on Sunday and can’t quite finish rather than someone that doesn’t even get into contention. It’s a good problem to have and you would think he will finally put away a major at some point in his career.
Justin Rose … He’s a wildcard in my eyes. On one hand he’s playing superb golf. On the other, he sucks on Links courses, at least historically. For that reason he’s dropped outside of my top 5 but still inside my top 10.
U.S. Open Cheatsheet… I love hearing about the success people are having with the weekly DraftKings cheatsheet so check it out.
Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!
Top 25 for the 2015 U.S. Open
1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Sergio Garcia
5. Rickie Fowler
6. Phil Mickelson
7. Brandt Snedeker
8. Henrik Stenson
9. Justin Rose
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Jim Furyk
12. Jason Day
13. Matt Kuchar
14. Brooks Koepka
15. Ryan Moore
16. Jimmy Walker
17. Kevin Chappell
18. Keegan Bradley
19. Ian Poulter
20. Francesco Molinari
21. Chris Kirk
22. Ryan Palmer
23. Bill Haas
24. Kevin Na
25. Hunter Mahan
