A Rumination on Artistic Success

Success is inherently unpredictable. I don't mean unpredictable in the sense of wild and erratic; I mean unpredictable in the sense of literally impossible to call, no matter how much information you have. Ultimately, most of us don't get what we deserve. (And thank goodness for that!) We get what we get. It's never fair. It could usually be better. It could always be worse.

If you took ten of today's rock superstars and put them alongside ten talented people who never made it in the business, and entered them all in a contest where nobody knew who any of them were, no one — not the studio audience, not the judges, not the millions of viewers at home — would be able to select winners and losers in any way that corresponded with the reality of their careers. I bet you can name half a dozen pop singers on the Top 40 right now who are not particularly good. And I bet you can name half a dozen people you know personally who are way more musically gifted who don't have record deals, despite years of patient, diligent effort.

Social media experts armed with advanced degrees in marketing and human psychology, despite years of specialized training and access to vast amounts of research data, can't accurately or consistently develop campaigns that go viral.

Stock picks and sports bets made by the world's most highly qualified, experienced, and knowledgeable gurus are no better than random guesses when you look at a large and representative statistical sample.

So whatever your creative occupation happens to be, and whatever your ultimate aspirations, the most important piece of advice is to just keep showing up every day, week after week, month after month, year after year, and doing what you do. Looking at the numbers, you probably won't make it. Neither will I. But that's OK. And speaking as a lazy, undisciplined, self-centered, neurotic, anxiety-riddled whiner of lukewarm intelligence and mediocre abilities, I'm very glad there is no justice in the world.

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Published on May 03, 2015 17:50
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Austin Scott Collins
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