Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview
The weather wrecked havoc on last week’s Valero Texas Open and now we stay in Texas for the Shell Houston Open.
The course dimensions of this week’s Golf Club of Houston are very similar to last weeks. A par 72 that extends past 7,400 yards. They try to replicate Augusta National as much as possible with rough lengths, runoffs around the greens, etc. but there is only so much you can do when setting up a Texas course versus one in Georgia.
The fairways are about TOUR average but the greens are pretty large and that makes them easy targets. This means targeting bombers and ball-strikers will be beneficial this week. With rain in the forecast, you can pretty much ignore putting, in my opinion.
Players to Watch
Phil Mickelson… The man, the myth, the thrill…. Mister Phil. Lefty has gained a ridiculous 2.487 strokes on the field over his last 20 rounds here at GC of Houston. That’s out of this world good, and the main reason why I’m rolling him out in my One-and-Done league this week.
Jordan Spieth… His game contends anywhere, but he may not have the same mindset. After last week’s Valero, he mentioned the GC of Houston doesn’t suit his style of play. I don’t really think that’s completely true, but sometimes internal thoughts can change the way a golfer performs. I don’t want to pay his hefty price this week if he’s just using this to clean up before Augusta.
Charley Hoffman… A disappointing Saturday blowup but it’s hard to complain with a top-15 finish. He likes playing in Texas and should earn another paycheck this week.
Martin Kaymer… Finished at the bottom last week but at least he didn’t WD like many others. It’s concerning that his strokes gained:tee-to-green is all the way down at 121st but it’s a small sample size. He’s got poor course history here or else I would be looking for a big bounce back ahead of next week.
Charl Schwartzel… Speaking of bounce backs. I think Charl is due for a big one this week. His form is poor in relation to his true talents but he should be rested up after three weeks off and ready to get back inside the top 15.
20-20 Club… The 20-20 club made it’s debut last week and went 3-for-3 in cuts made even though two of them were on the wrong side of the weather draw. This week only one golfer fits this criteria of form combined with course history…. J.B. Holmes.
Graham DeLaet… He’s almost officially on every fantasy gamers’ shit list. This would be the ideal time for him to finally get that maiden win. I feel like I say this every week. He was ninth in my rankings for this event last year, and we could see him crawl back into the top 10 this week.
Jason Kokrak… He’s long off the tee and is rolling in form ahead of this week. Sadly, I think he may be set up for letdown this week. His median strokes gained at this venue is 0.021 which may mean we will be sweating a Friday cut line with Kokrak hovering near it.
Matt Kuchar… A top-10 machine at this course and just in general. The downside is his lack of length if the rain lengthens the course this week. Still a top-tier play in all formats.
Justin Rose… The Englishman is not one to play hurt for long periods of time so I think this form is just a matter of poor circumstances. Look for him to tidy up before Augusta with a top 25 this week.
Lee Westwood… I will be heavy on Lee next week at The Masters so I’m hoping he finishes just outside the top 10 this week… Just enough to keep him under the radar.
Louis Oosthuizen… I don’t recall the last time King Louie was this high on my rankings but this course fits his eye and he’s played well leading into it. The problem always lies in his high probability to WD mid-week.
David Toms… Was the consultant in designing this course but is just 2-for-4 since. The greens are reportedly slow and soft this week, which really benefits his ball-striking + lack of putting game style.
Tony Finau… I was high on Finau preseason but had to back off after his hot start and overpricing. I’m back on the train this week as this course suits bombers and aggressive play. He’s inside the top 10 in driving distance and going for the green. Sleeper alert!
Top 25 for the 2015 Shell Houston Open
1. Phil Mickelson
2. Sergio Garcia
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Lee Westwood
6. Louis Oosthuizen
7. J.B. Holmes
8. Bill Haas
9. Patrick Reed
10. Keegan Bradley
11. Shawn Stefani
12. Charley Hoffman
13. Charl Schwartzel
14. Rickie Fowler
15. Cameron Tringale
16. Matt Jones
17. Ryan Moore
18. Justin Rose
19. Jason Kokrak
20. Jamie Donaldson
21. Carlos Ortiz
22. Graham DeLaet
23. Daniel Berger
24. Charles Howell III
25. Brendan Steele
