Rare disasters in the persistence of growth

An MR reader refers me to this interesting paper (pdf) by Max Gillman, Michal Kejak, and Michal Pakoš, the abstract is here:


Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate.  We extend their framework and extent consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence.  We model growth persistence by means of two hidden types of growth slowdowns: recessions and lost decades.  We estimate the model based on the postwar U.S. data using maximum likelihood and find that it can simultaneously match a wide array of dynamic pricing phenomena in the equity and bond markets.  The key intuition for our results stems from the inability to discriminate between the short and the long recessions ex ante.


In essence there is tail uncertainty about the length of the recession.


 •  0 comments  •  flag
Share on Twitter
Published on August 25, 2014 22:53
No comments have been added yet.


Tyler Cowen's Blog

Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen isn't a Goodreads Author (yet), but they do have a blog, so here are some recent posts imported from their feed.
Follow Tyler Cowen's blog with rss.