Philip Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project

Philip emails me:

Your recent book was very persuasive–and I see an interesting connection between your thesis and the “super-forecasters” we have been trying to select and then cultivate in the IARPA geopolitical forecasting tournament.

One niche we humans can carve out for ourselves is, under certain fleeting conditions, out-smarting algorithms (one of the extreme challenges we have been giving our supers is out-predicting various wisdom-of-crowd indicators).

You have brought us many forecasters over the years (including some “supers”) so I thought your readers might find the attached article on the research program  in The Economist of interest.

Our recruitment address is: www.goodjudgmentproject.com

The website writes:

The Good Judgment Project is a four-year research study organized as part of a government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Thousands of people around the world predict global events. Their collective forecasts are surprisingly accurate.

You can sign up and do it.  Here is a related article from The Economist.  Here is a good Monkey Cage summary of what they are doing.