Guest Blog: History’s Dangerous Rhyme
Today I am delighted to publish a guest blog by Nate McIntyre, author of Roaring Zeros. In his book ‘McIntyre has done an excellent job of combining an entertaining story with topics that are of incredible importance in the world today’. In his blog he uses an historic theme to issue a salutary warning that desperate people take desperate measures.
History’s Dangerous Rhyme
Most people are familiar with the idea that history repeats itself. Mark Twain is often quoted as saying “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” We often hear this sentiment expressed in the discussion of current events, in some cases with more relevance than others, and often without more than a superficial analysis of any similarities between the past and the present. It’s important to remember, however, that there are cases when this comparison holds water, and where the past can provide lessons for the present regarding what can happen under a given set of circumstances. Ever since the beginning of the Great Recession and global financial crisis in 2008, there’s been no shortage of comparisons with the Great Depression. On the other hand, there hasn’t been much discussion of how some of today’s more dangerous political trends resemble the darkest developments of the 1920s and 30s, or what effects they might have if the current crisis were to accelerate.
One of the main reasons I wrote Roaring Zeros was to imagine how things might play out from a Millennial perspective if the situation were to deteriorate in the US. However, I think it’s something a lot of people can relate to regardless of where they’re from. In the story, facing limited job prospects and massive personal debt, a group of bored, frustrated young men decide to take aggressive action after a group of far-right extremists attack the president and drive the economic and political crisis in the country to the breaking point. As the story progresses, they move further and further from their lives as party-loving 20-somethings and become active participants in a period of quasi-revolution that borders on civil war. It is a time when frustrated, angry people take measures into their own hands. Most importantly – and perhaps alarmingly – since I started writing the book in 2009, is how closely some events in crisis-stricken countries have come to resemble those of the story and of the Depression Era. In particular, I’m referring to the rise of extremist political parties, even a few of the fascist variety, which has been somewhat underreported. Before we look at this development, we need a brief history lesson.
Chaos, depression and extremism
The 1920s were a time of political turmoil and wealth disparity for much of the planet. Europe and other parts of the world were in chaos as governments and empires disappeared in the wake of World War I. America experienced the decadence of the “Roaring Twenties” thanks to a booming market. While many got rich in record time, many more suffered poverty and hardship. The mafia also rose to prominence in this period as a result of prohibition in the US. Due to the prevailing populist sentiments and feelings of alienation, radical political movements began to take shape across the world. Communist and other left-wing parties, inspired by the Bolsheviks in Russia, attempted revolutions in Germany and elsewhere. In response to this breakdown in social order and what they viewed as a betrayal of traditional values, far-right movements began to rise and concentrate around a “third position” opposed to both the radical movements on the left, and the capitalistic democracies that replaced many monarchies after World War I. This ideology came to be known as fascism after Benito Mussolini’s Fascist Party, which took power in Italy in 1922. Embracing violence in support of nationalism, these groups soon began to appeal a wide range of people in the working and middle classes who felt betrayed by their governments and current parties, as well as members of the upper classes seeking to “restore order” and crush the threat posed to them by the communists and others on the left.
The stock market crash of 1929 that ushered in the Great Depression provided the final catalyst that fascist groups needed to tip things in their favor. The group that benefited the most was Adolf Hitler’s infamous National Socialist or “Nazi” Party, which had failed in its coup attempt against the Weimar Republic in 1923. With millions of Germans now suffering even more than they had before, the Nazis found many willing supporters for their brand of fascism, which advocated a hard-line version of German nationalism and added extremist views on racial purity to the typical opposition to both communist and liberal-democratic ideals. Street battles and acts of violence occurred with frequency between the party’s SA “Stormtrooper” militia (also called the “brownshirts”), the Communist Party’s Red Front on the far left, and the Social Democratic Party’s Reichsbanner, which sought to defend the Weimar Republic from the other two. As the Depression accelerated, so did the violence and the electoral success of the Nazis. By 1932, they were the largest party in the Reichstag (German parliament). In early 1933, Hitler was appointed Chancellor, spelling the end of the Weimar Republic and ushering in over a decade of dictatorship.
Once it was entrenched in Italy and Germany, fascism began to spread to parts of Eastern Europe, Spain and even picked up supporters in countries like the UK and US. In America’s case, there was even reliable evidence of a fascist-style coup plot against Franklin Roosevelt uncovered in 1933 (BBC documentary on the plot available here). The 1936 outbreak of the Spanish Civil War provided a testing ground for ideologies and tactics that would be a part of the coming Second World War. The war began with a semi-successful coup by Spanish fascists, monarchist and other right wing parties under the leadership of a group of military generals. This Nationalist side was eventually led by General Franco and backed by Hitler and Mussolini. They rose in opposition to the Spanish Republic and its Popular Front, which consisted of everything from liberal democrats and socialists, to communists and anarchists on the far left. Arms poured in from foreign countries along with many foreign volunteers determined to fight for their belief in the anti-fascist cause. By 1939, the Spanish Republic fell and Franco took power as dictator of Spain until his death in 1975. Months later, World War II erupted in Europe and would leave much of the world in ruins and tens of millions dead before it ended.
The situation today
Unfortunately, with the onset of another massive global financial crisis in 2008 and rising social tension due to immigration and the growth of the European Union, fascism has begun to make a comeback in countries that it helped destroy during the Second World War. The most notable example of this is in crisis-torn Greece. With high levels of public corruption and debt, crippling unemployment issues, and a large immigrant population due to its geographic position on the EU periphery, many Greeks have abandoned the traditional political parties in recent years and turned to others offering a populist message and new solutions.
One of the beneficiaries of this turmoil has been a party called Golden Dawn. Using ultranationalist rhetoric and a logo strikingly similar to a swastika, this party has gone from receiving less than one percent of the vote in previous elections, to receiving seven percent in 2012 and entering parliament for the first time with eighteen seats. Much like their ideological cousins the Nazis, Golden Dawn preaches a message of restoring strength and honor to Greece and uniting Greeks in a struggle to crush leftists, fight corrupt politicians and bankers, and drive out immigrants that they believe are poisoning Greek society. This has manifested itself in a surge in violence against immigrants and leftists, patrols led by Golden Dawn members in public markets, and an attempt by the party to implement food drives and other social services available only to ethnic Greeks. With youth unemployment in Greece recently hitting sixty-four percent, Golden Dawn is polling at fourteen percent approval in opinion polls, gaining strength as the crisis deepens and putting them in position to be a significant force in future elections.
Golden Dawn is not alone in their success in recent years either. In Hungary, the Jobbik Party promotes similar beliefs and has grown to become the country’s third largest party. In Italy, Forza Nuova leads an ultranationalist cause seeking to capitalize on the crisis there. Even Germany has a similar movement in the NPD. With larger countries like Italy and Spain struggling with similarly severe problems and populist sentiment flooding the continent, there is a real danger that Golden Dawn could be just the first in a wave of fascist parties to experience success in present-day Europe. Much like Mussolini was a harbinger of what awaited Europe in the 1930s, Golden Dawn could be just the tip of the proverbial iceberg in today’s crisis.
Even in the United States, populist sentiment is more prevalent than it has been in decades. Since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008, there have been mass protest movements in the form of the Tea Party and its associated groups, followed by the Occupy Wall Street movement soon after. Both movements and the various groups associated with them offer similar criticisms of the current political system in the US, yet present radically different ideas on how to address most of these issues. Despite attempts to co-opt them by the two major parties in the US, both remain active today. Disapproval of government institutions and interest in alternative parties has grown steadily over the past few election cycles as well.
A warning
Given these realities, it is not difficult to see how politics could quickly become more extreme in the US and elsewhere in the event of another shock to the economic and political system. The collapse of the Euro, the bursting of the student loan bubble in the US, a major natural disaster – these or any similar event could push populist sentiments over the edge. In such a situation everyday people could find themselves on their own with little hope of aid from the traditional institutions. They may suddenly be willing to take actions they never previously considered as a result of their personal circumstances, just as people did in the 1920s and 30s. This is the main theme I had in mind while I was writing Roaring Zeros. Since then, my belief in the relevance of this message has only been reinforced. It is essential for us to recognize that history may be rhyming a bit more dangerously than many of us realize and to be conscious of another piece of conventional wisdom – desperate people take desperate measures.
