Ali Jalali lays out the three things the Karzai regime needs to do to survive

By April Labaro

Best Defense bureau of Afghan political affairs

What exactly is Afghanistan transitioning to in
2014? This question is central in the ongoing (and going) debate about "Afghanistan
2014," which has given everyone involved a case of "'transition fatigue,"
according to Professor Ali J. Jalali.

Jalali, a former interior minister of Afghanistan,
gave a lecture recently at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
International Studies about his personal assessment of the upcoming transition
in Afghanistan. When it comes down to it, he believes that the best that anyone
can hope for is the survival of the regime.

To ensure that outcome, Jalali outlined three key areas that should be addressed
during the transition:

The first is the state of security
post-withdrawal. Jalali emphasized the importance of ensuring that the Afghan
army has the capacity to provide security after all international forces have
left and warned that the number of tanks and arms left behind does not mean
greater security.




The second point, one just touched on, was the
economy. The main worry here, he said, is that around half of the workforce is
currently in the service sector and most of these jobs will be lost when
international organizations leave. But Jalali remained optimistic, saying the
projects to be put in place over the next two years, specifically in the mining
industry and railroad construction, will create more jobs over time.




Lastly, but most importantly, is the regime's
ability to demonstrate its political will. The election being viewed as fair
and free is, above all, the biggest factor in ensuring the survival of the
regime. But is Afghanistan ready for a fair and free election? In addition to
addressing challenges with technical and logistical readiness, Jalali said he believes
that the most important step towards demonstrating political will is the
establishment of both a strong and independent election commission and a
process for dealing with complaints. Legislation on election rules and the
establishment of an office to handle complaints must be passed before the
commission can even begin to implement its operation plans for the upcoming
election.

Jalali summed up his points by concluding that "the
snapshots are bad, but the video is different." In other words, this transition
through 2014 and beyond is fragile and riddled with serious doubt and potential
breaking points. But with a strong national agenda and the regime's publicly confirmed
political will, it is possible for Afghanistan to hold a free and fair election
and transition to a stable and secure state. Time seems to be on the side of
the government for now, but we can't afford to forget that, as Jalali put it,
if the Afghan people don't win, everyone will lose.