How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?

FiveThirtyEight’s midterms forecast continues to show Democrats and Republicans in a dead heat Senate race, with Republicans taking a very slight advantage. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by a three points or less polling average. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of it in this installment of “Model Talk” for the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also answer listener questions and ponder whether analysts actually believe the polls anymore.