The Stan R. Mitchell 1/14/22 dispatch.

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Happy Friday, everyone! Hope everyone has had a great week!

The biggest news by far is the likely invasion of Ukraine for a third time by Russian forces.

Russia continues to push forces toward Ukraine.

Rob Lee @RALee85Nona-S 120mm mortars, T-80BV tanks, MT-LB, and BMP-3. Almost certainly from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade traveling through Krasnoyarsk. 545/

4emberlen @4emberlen

Красноярский край 14.01.2022 https://t.co/NEjnkGm7d9

January 14th 2022

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See also this:

Michael Kofman @KofmanMichaelRussian preparations for an operation are steadily advancing. Support and logistics trickling in, formations with personnel sent from Eastern MD. The outlook, in my view, has grown worse.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

Russia hasn’t stopped troop flow. If talks fail this week with no future discussions—it probably spells the end of the strategic warning period. Once that period ends, there will only be tactical warning left for Ukraine. Things like: when RS forces are in place & when ops start.

January 13th 2022

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And a timeline for the invasion is starting to become clearer.

Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand“The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February,” the official said. “We saw this playbook in 2014 with Crimea.”

January 14th 2022

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Just today, Russia hacked many of Ukraine’s government websites.

ru.interfax.com.ua/news/general/7… ","username":"pwnallthethings","name":"Pwn All The Things","date":"Fri Jan 14 05:50:17 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJClfA...Pwn All The Things @pwnallthethingsUkraine's MFA, MOD, State Emergency Service, Cabinet of Ministers, and Ministry of Education sites all hacked/defaced ru.interfax.com.ua/news/general/7…

January 14th 2022

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And The Washington Post reports that Russia will again blame Ukraine for this invasion.

Stan R. Mitchell, author @StanRMitchellRussia planning potential sabotage operations in Ukraine, U.S. says Russia planning potential sabotage operations in Ukraine, U.S. saysThe United States also accused Moscow of planting fabricated Ukrainian provocations in social and state media.washingtonpost.com

January 14th 2022

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy warned of this a couple of days ago.

Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyCTAn important warning Nuland makes here is that Russia is planning "false flag" ops. In other words, they are going to try to create the pretext for an invasion, like inventing an attack on Russian troops that didn't happen.

Under Secretary Victoria Nuland @UnderSecStateP

Russia has created this crisis out of whole cloth and will have to justify to its people why it is stoking a potentially very bloody & costly conflict for Russia, rather than focusing on its own citizens’ health and on Russia’s own significant challenges in building back better. https://t.co/pg9PcquNtV

January 12th 2022

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As a reminder, Russia’s initial invasion of Donbas was partly to “protect” folks there, who are of Russian descent/citizenry.

I’m not sure what else to add. I hope Putin blinks, and I wish we’d flood Ukraine with more American troops to allow for deterrance versus months (if not years) of bloody fighting, but it is what it is. And one COULD argue that we’re already stepping up on the deterrance front.

In December, the U.S. delivered “part of a $60 million security assistance package, including small arms and ammunition.” (Link: US small arms and ammo arrive in Ukraine as Pentagon details troops to train country's military.)

From the same story above, for 2021, the U.S. provided $450 million in security assistance to Ukraine. And going back to 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied the Crimean peninsula, the US has provided more than $2.5 billion in aid to Ukraine.

We’re also currently already training their forces here in America.

Zach Dorfman @zachsdorfmanNEW: “The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S.”CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invadesThe CIA is overseeing a secret training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel.yahoo.com

January 13th 2022

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Moving to Iraq, there was some news there.

Evan Kohlmann @IntelTweetReuters: "Rockets fired at U.S. embassy in Baghdad shot down, no casualties -Iraqi military officials" Rockets fired at U.S. embassy in Baghdad hurt Iraqi woman, child -militaryA rocket attack directed against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad resulted in a child and a woman being wounded, the Iraqi military said in a statement, a rare occasion where Iraqis have been hurt in such an incident.reuters.com

January 13th 2022

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This isn’t the first time that Iranian militia groups have gotten fiesty with drones or rockets. (See my past couple of newsletters for more on that.)

Also, here’s some cool video from the event.

Nafiseh Kohnavard @nafisehkBBCBreaking US embassy’s anti rocket system C-RAM in Baghdad activated a few seconds agoI heard explosionsVideo taken by me

January 13th 2022

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You can learn more about C-RAMs here: https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/ms-c-ram_lpws/.

In the spying front, there was this:

Shibley Telhami @ShibleyTelhamiFour Israeli women, all Jewish immigrants from Iran, charged by Israel with providing intel to Iranian agent Four Israelis charged with providing intel to Iranian agentFour women, all Jewish immigrants from Iran, were recruited over social media and asked by their handler to photograph sites in Israel, including U.S. Embassy, according to the indictment served against themhaaretz.com

January 12th 2022

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Finally, in tech news, here is a couple of items:

breakingdefense.com/2022/01/destro… (by @JustinSKatz) ","username":"BreakingDefense","name":"Breaking Defense","date":"Thu Jan 13 19:53:00 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJAQ89...Breaking Defense @BreakingDefenseLockheed Martin is preparing to send its latest directed energy weapon to San Diego for installation onboard an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer following successful testing at a Navy facility last year. breakingdefense.com/2022/01/destro… (by @JustinSKatz)

January 13th 2022

4 Retweets18 LikesStatus-6 @Archer83AbleA quadcopter with a mounted QBZ-95 automatic rifle used during counter-terrorism exercises of the special forces of the People's Armed Police of China.

January 12th 2022

1 Retweet17 Likes

Before we end, some motivation for the weekend. (Get after your goals.)

Great Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotesI always tried to turn every disaster into an opportunity. - John D. Rockefeller

January 12th 2022

78 Retweets285 LikesGreat Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotesIf your ship doesn't come in, swim out to it. - Jonathan Winters

January 13th 2022

116 Retweets456 Likes

That’s it for this edition. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans. The vast majority of Americans are decent, loving, great people, and we must unite this country again so that we can at least discuss issues with dialogue and solemnity; not yelling, anger, and threats.

Please don’t name-call the other side on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. They are mothers and fathers and folks not much different than you.

As always, please share this post if you enjoyed it, as well as comment below.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write scorching-fast books. 70,000-plus sold. 4-plus star average rating. You can find all eleven books here: amazon.com.