The Stan R. Mitchell report for 1/18/22.

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Happy Tuesday, everyone! Hope everyone had a great weekend and that your week is off to a great start.

In defense news, the situation in Ukraine remains our primary concern. And unfortunately, there’s been absolutely nothing good happening there to reduce tensions since Friday.

A few negative bullet points to consider.

Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 @alexplitsasRussia has been slowly reducing the size of its embassy staff in Ukraine and has sent spouses and children back to MoscowRussia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next MoveThe slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.nytimes.com

January 18th 2022

58 Retweets90 Likes

And this:

@MotolkoHelp from earlier today. ","username":"TadeuszGiczan","name":"Tadeusz Giczan","date":"Mon Jan 17 14:39:54 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/upload...Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczanRussian troops are already arriving in Belarus, says secretary of its Security Council Alexander Volfovich. Trains with Russian military vehicles have been spotted all over the country. Here is one in Kolodishchi, just outside Minsk. Video by @MotolkoHelp from earlier today.

January 17th 2022

408 Retweets492 Likes

As a reminder…

Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitchAnd here is the setup of the Belarus front. Russian troops in Belarus was one of the last step many were expecting in the pre-invasion force mobilization. Now the only thing that’s missing is the pretext for war. Likely won’t have to wait long… https://t.co/x03I8Ah8EO

Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczan

Russian troops are already arriving in Belarus, says secretary of its Security Council Alexander Volfovich. Trains with Russian military vehicles have been spotted all over the country. Here is one in Kolodishchi, just outside Minsk. Video by @MotolkoHelp from earlier today. https://t.co/lFdPuwK2Rp

January 17th 2022

155 Retweets207 Likes

More on the point above.

Michael Kofman @KofmanMichaelRussian forces arriving in Belarus should have implications for folks' perception of the size/scope of the operation. First time ever Eastern Mil District forces in Belarus. If you think its not a bluff, great. If you think its not going to be large-scale...I suggest a rethink.

January 17th 2022

666 Retweets1,677 Likes

And then there’s this scary fact:

Dara Massicot @MassDaraMy Twitter feed may get pretty grim folks, as the Russian military shifts into higher gear this week & onwards: reservists, troops saying goodbye to families at train, large exercises starting up, MRLS moving around etc. I’m staying sharp while battling growing dread. https://t.co/t9cwD5Hk9T

Status-6 @Archer83Able

The elements of BM-27 Uragan MLRS (9P140 launchers & 9T452 transporter-loader vehicles) and trucks moving west through the town of Kargat in the Novosibirsk Oblast. The video appeared on January 17.Geolocation: 55.194482, 80.298063https://t.co/zEx4lb98jk

January 17th 2022

113 Retweets288 Likes

Here’s the latest look at what an invasion might look like:

#Ukraine. This disposition of forces is ominous.\nwashingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-ad… ","username":"TomRtweets","name":"Tom Rogan","date":"Mon Jan 17 21:53:37 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJVepn...Tom Rogan @TomRtweetsNEW- Either alongside the Belarusian military or alone, Russian forces in Belarus could now complete a north-south-east-based offensive against #Ukraine. This disposition of forces is ominous.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-ad…

January 17th 2022

101 Retweets184 Likes

One good thing did happen, since Friday, however.

Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenkoBREAKING ⚡️⚡️⚡️🇬🇧 UK has confirmed its decision to expand its military aid to 🇺🇦Ukraine and provide U.S. with “light, anti-armour, defensive weapon systems.”The British are on fire these days 🔥as distinct from their weak and spineless neighbors in the continent.

January 17th 2022

259 Retweets1,407 Likes

And I’m sharing this similar tweet on that same topic because it has a good map of Europe and shows perfectly the wall that Ukraine helps provide against Russian aggression.

ELINT News @ELINTNewsThird C-17 from RAF Brize Norton en route to Ukraine likely carrying military advisors and NLAW light anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM’s).

January 18th 2022

107 Retweets386 Likes

Let’s hope that all of these data points I’ve listed above, which predict a third Russian invasion of Ukraine, are incorrect. Like, let’s seriously hope this is the case. (And, I know, most news sources don’t say “third invasion,” but first Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula. And they followed that up by invading the eastern part of the country in the Donbass region.)

Moving to a different topic, I’ve talked about China increasingly bullying their neighbors these past six months, and their stupidity these past few months is starting to pay dividends. (But not how they were wanting, I’ll bet.)

Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossmanThe usual suspects are becoming increasingly anti-China and pro-Taiwan. Think Australia, India, Japan, and the US. But European states are coming aboard as well, including the UK, France, and others. Canada now, too. I suspect New Zealand is soon to follow. Great job, Xi!

January 18th 2022

37 Retweets155 Likes

I couldn’t have said it better than the above, so let’s move to the next topic.

Moving to the Middle East, this was pretty big news for those hoping the Yemen situation wouldn’t spread.

The Washington Post @washingtonpostThree killed in suspected drone attack on UAE capital, claimed by Yemen rebels Three killed in UAE capital in suspected drone attack claimed by Yemen rebelsA Pakistani and two Indian nationals were killed in the attack, according to Abu Dhabi police.wapo.st

January 17th 2022

65 Retweets125 Likes

From the story above:

Yemen’s rebel Houthi movement said Monday it had carried out a military attack on the United Arab Emirates as authorities in Abu Dhabi, the capital, announced suspected drone strikes targeted an industrial area and the airport, killing three people and wounding six others.

The UAE’s state news agency quoted Abu Dhabi police as saying that a Pakistani and two Indians were killed in the incident.

Police in Abu Dhabi said three petroleum tanker trucks exploded in an area close to the city’s port, near storage facilities used by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Separately, a “minor fire” occurred in a construction area at Abu Dhabi International Airport, the statement said, adding that a preliminary investigation found objects that were possibly drones in the two locations.

In tech news that will certainly be applied to military hardware at some point, there was this:

cnn.it/3GvrsyL ","username":"CNN","name":"CNN","date":"Sat Jan 15 08:31:07 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/upload...CNN @CNNWatch this self-driving racecar go 173 mph with no human driver inside.Autonomous racecars competed head-to-head at the Indy Autonomous Challenge at CES. cnn.it/3GvrsyL

January 15th 2022

70 Retweets248 Likes

Before we end, let me hit this final topic. This is kind of old news, but it’s still a sore spot for me:

Evan Kohlmann @IntelTweetAssociated Press: "Before pullout, watchdog warned of Afghan air force collapse" Before pullout, watchdog warned of Afghan air force collapse | AP NewsKABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Months before President Joe Biden announced the U.S.’s complete withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, Washington’s watchdog warned that the Afghan air force would collapse without critical American aid, training and maintenance.apnews.com

January 18th 2022

I will still continue to hold both the Trump and Biden administrations responsible for the disaster that ensued in Afghanistan. Both wanted to pull out and both will own whatever befalls both Afghanistan (and us), should terrorism bases again be built there.

But we’re not off the hook either. Ultimately, the American people didn’t care enough about Afghanistan, so our political leaders executed (poorly) the will of the American people. That’s the bottom line, and our hasty, nasty withdrawal has caused untold heartbreak and shattered beliefs in literally hundreds of thousands of vets who served as best they could in the country.

It’s also shaken and rocked the faith of those who believed in the ideas of this great nation and who served us and assisted us, both in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and the rest of the world. (And no, that’s not an over-statement.)

Before we sign off, let’s end on a lighter note with plenty of wisdom and motivation.

Great Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotesKites rise highest against the wind - not with it. - Winston Churchill

January 11th 2022

75 Retweets311 LikesCSM Nicholas M. Curry @realPatriot_7

January 18th 2022

2 Retweets21 LikesGreat Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotesIt's never too late to be what you might have been. - George Eliot

January 15th 2022

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That’s it for this edition. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans. The vast majority of Americans are decent, loving, great people, and we must unite this country again so that we can at least discuss issues with dialogue and solemnity; not scream and threats.

I beg of you, please don’t name-call the other side on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. They are mothers and fathers and folks not much different than you.

You can be the change we all want to see. (And most of those who are loudest are also those who are the most scared. You can only win them by showing love and kindness.)

As always, please share this post if you enjoyed it, as well as comment below.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write scorching-fast books. 70,000-plus sold. 4-plus star average rating. You can find all eleven books here: amazon.com.

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