Projecting Deaths from COVID-19 (another update)

On April 2, I published a blog (here) analyzing available information to put into context the 100,000240,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths then being projected. On April 15, in this blog, I cast doubt on the reduction of government projections to only 60,000 deaths through August 4, suggesting that 100,000 deaths were more likely. The official projection has now been increased several times and as of this writing sits at nearly 73,000. Once again, applying my naïve methodology, I think this number...