Is The 2020 Democratic Field Down To 10 Candidates?

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Wednesday marked the last day candidates could qualify for the Sept. 12 Democratic primary debate, and in the end there were 21 DNC-approved polls, with 10 candidates able to hit 2 percent support in four qualifying national or early-state polls1 and reach 130,000 unique donors (including at least 400 individual donors in at least 20 states).2

The ten candidates who have qualified are: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang.

So now that we have one debate with the top 10 candidates, how’s that change the dynamics? Who could it help and who could it hurt?

micah (Micah Cohen, managing editor): No. 1 benefiter: Us. Back-to-back debate nights are horrible.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, now I get to watch UVA raise its national championship banner on Friday instead.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Yeah, it helps people who were hoping to make plans on Friday night. And — just full disclosure here — we think it’s pretty cool that the network we work for, ABC News, is gonna get to host the first debate where all the major candidates are on the same stage.

sarahf: Now, now — I meant this when I tweeted it earlier — it goes beyond self interest:

Welp, that was pretty anticlimactic, but I'm actually pretty excited for one debate night (and not just for self-interested reasons). Warren & Biden have yet to face off — and in theory, these are the 10 candidates voters are most interested in: https://t.co/nFc682fqn8

— Sarah E. Frostenson (@sfrostenson) August 28, 2019

micah: But Sarah, I assume you wanted a more substantive answer that readers will actually be interested in?

sarahf: Yeah, we’re finally about to watch the candidates people are (theoretically) most interested in!! And I, for one, am excited to see Warren and Biden go head-to-head.

What about you all?

micah: Yeah, that’s true. So maybe Democratic voters are the real beneficiaries.

natesilver: I’m not sure it helps voters, to be honest.

I think maybe it hurts voters.

What they could do instead is put all the good candidates on one night and then all the weird ones in a JV debate. That way, people who want to watch the weird candidates still can, but it doesn’t deprive them of the opportunity to see, say, Warren vs. Biden.

geoffrey.skelley: There were plenty of people in my Twitter mentions complaining that there should be two debates with smaller numbers. I think you arguably could have had Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg one night, and put the other five on the second night.

sarahf: Are we sure we think that’s a good idea? The JV debates were ridiculed on the GOP side during the 2016 primaries. I just think there’s no good way for the parties to handle the winnowing process, and the candidates had 21 polls to hit 2 percent in, so I’d argue these are the 10 candidates voters are most interested in hearing.

micah: OMG, we just got down to 10 candidates, and people are already complaining that that’s too many!!!?

geoffrey.skelley: In the context of one debate stage, yeah.

natesilver: It’s kind of been demonstrated by now that a candidate like Castro or Booker can have a pretty darn good night — and he or she is still overshadowed by what the 4-5 main candidates are doing.

Hell, have the JV debate first, and then have some system where whoever does best according to a poll of Democratic voters gets a seat on the second night.

geoffrey.skelley: Oh, now that’s fun.

micah: But this is certainly an improvement for voters over two 10-person debates.

Even by your logic, Nate.

sarahf: But OK … to get back on track …

geoffrey.skelley: Story of Sarah’s life as politics editor.

micah: OK, my