A Better Way To Evaluate NBA Defense

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A Better Way To Evaluate NBA Defense

Basketball, in some sense, is fundamentally a shooting game. Shooting isnât the only important action that takes place on a basketball court, obviously. But if no one kept track of who was taking shots and making buckets, weâd have, at best, an extremely fuzzy impression of which players were actually any good, even if we had access to all their other statistics.

But believe it or not, this had long been the situation when it came to measuring player defense. There are individual defensive statistics such as rebounds and steals, of course. But thereâs no direct measure of shooting defense (other than blocks, which account for a relatively small fraction of missed shots). If an opponent gets hot against your team and shoots 53 for 91 en route to scoring 130 points, we know your team defended poorly in the aggregate, but we donât know which players to blame.

That is, until a few years ago, when the NBA started publishing data on opponentsâ shooting. Last regular season, for example, NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert defended a league-high 1,426 shots, according to motion tracking data by Second Spectrum, which identifies the nearest defender on every field goal attempt. Opponents made only 45 percent of those field goal attempts, well below the roughly 49 percent that Second Spectrum estimates âshouldâ have gone in against average defense for a given distance to the basket.

Weâve been obsessed with this opponentsâ shooting data for a while, in part because it sometimes seemed to track closely with players who had stronger or weaker defensive reputations than you would infer from other advanced statistics such as Real Plus-Minus. Bostonâs Kyrie Irving was regarded as a slightly above-average defender by RPM last year, for instance. But his opponentsâ shooting data suggests heâs a big liability instead. On the other hand, Torontoâs Serge Ibaka was an excellent defender based on opponentsâ shooting, whereas RPM regards him as just average.

So this year, we decided to evaluate the opponentsâ shooting data in a more comprehensive way and incorporate it into our projection system, CARMELO. Just as CARMELO is a goofy backronym (Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization) that honors one of our favorite players, Carmelo Anthony, we decided to give our new defensive rating a player-centric name, this time in honor of the Golden State Warriorsâ Draymond Green, who has long been one of the best players in basketball by opponent shooting. So our new rating is called DRAYMOND, which stands forâ¦.

Defensive

Rating

Accounting for

Yielding

Minimal

Openness by

Nearest

Defender

All right, so the acronym may or may not catch on. But it does get at one essential discovery we made in playing around with the opponentsâ shooting data: the idea of minimizing openness. The main goal of shooting defense, especially in todayâs spacing-centric, ball-movement-forward offensive era, is really to minimize the chance of an open shot.

So when I cited Gobertâs numbers earlier in this article, for instance, the most impressive part was not that opponents shot poorly against him, although that helped the Jazz, of course. Rather, it was that he was the nearest defender on so many shots: about 26 shots per 100 possessions that he was on the floor last year1 as compared with a league average of about 17 shots defended per 100 possessions. By contrast, Oklahoma Cityâs Russell Westbrook — whom DRAYMOND regards as being vastly overrated by other defensive metrics — was the nearest defender on only 12 shots per 100 possessions. Some of this has to do with Westbrookâs and Gobertâs respective positions — centers naturally defend more shots than guards do, a factor that DRAYMOND corrects for (see below). But even accounting for that, itâs clear that some players are much more impactful defenders than others.

Iâm sure youâre curious to see some data, but first, an explanation of how DRAYMOND is calculated. Weâll keep it pretty brief.

As I mentioned above, what weâre really interested in is how much value a defender provides relative to an open shot. That is to say, we generally donât want to punish a player for happening to be the nearest defender according to the Second Spectrum data. Some defense is generally better than none; if Player X hadnât defended the shot, itâs possible that no one else would have.2

Through trial and error, we found that DRAYMOND performs best3 if you assume that shooting percentages on open shots are about 8 percentage points higher than against average defense. For instance, if a certain type of above-the-break 3-pointer is made 34 percent of the time against average defense, weâd expect it to go in about 42 percent of the time if it was truly open.

This allows us to calculate an initial score that we call RAW_DRAYMOND. For example, if a player faced 100 2-point shots and allowed 46 of them to go in when youâd expect 56 percent of them to be converted if wide open, that player prevented …

(.56-.46) x 100 x 2 = 20

â¦ about 20 points from being scored with his defense. (Obviously, this player could have provided additional value based on his defense against 3-point shots. Indeed, since 3-point shots are worth more than 2-pointers — hashtag #math — players who are effective at defending threes are especially rewarded by DRAYMOND.)

However, there are several adjustments we need to make in getting from RAW_DRAYMOND to regular DRAYMOND:

Since DRAYMOND is based on both regular-season and playoff data, we adjust for the fact that defenders face slightly tougher shooters on average in the playoffs.
We divide RAW_DRAYMOND by the number of possessions that the player was on the floor, so that DRAYMOND (like RPM and most other NBA stats) is a rate statistic rather than a counting statistic.
We adjust the number of shots defended based on a playerâs position. The average point guard and shooting guard defends about 15 shots per 100 possessions, the average small forward defends about 16 shots, the average power forward 19 shots, and the average center 22 shots.4 This somewhat equalizes defensive value over the five positions. Even so, bigs are generally the most valuable defenders in basketball according to DRAYMOND, as they are under most other advanced statistics.
Finally, we subtract the value of league-average shooting defense per possession from each playerâs score. Thus, like RPM and Box Plus/Minus (BPM), the statistics that CARMELO has traditionally used to make its projections, DRAYMOND is a plus-minus statistic measured per 100 possessions, where a score of 0 represents average defense.

Among players who have played at least 10,000 possessions over the past six seasons (the NBAâs opponentsâ shooting data goes back to 2013-14), the top defender according to DRAYMOND is â¦ Draymond Green, who has provided the Warriors with +3.2 points per 100 possessions of defensive value based on his scoring defense alone, not counting all of the other ways (e.g., steals) that he produces defensive value. Green is followed on the list by a fairly star-studded cast of defenders: Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis (!), Rudy Gobert, Tim Duncan, Andre Roberson and Anthony Davis. Meanwhile, the worst-rated defender over the past six seasons according to DRAYMOND is Rajon Rondo.

The best defender according to DRAYMOND is Draymond

NBA players by DRAYMOND* defensive ratings, based on opponentsâ shooting data in the regular season and playoffs, with a minimum of 10,000 possessions played since 2013-14

Player
Possessions played
DRAYMOND RATING

Draymond Green
38,282
+3.16

Joel Embiid
11,766
+2.95

Kristaps Porzingis
11,714
+2.57

Rudy Gobert
24,889
+2.40

Tim Duncan
14,218
+2.20

Andre Roberson
15,147
+2.06

Anthony Davis
30,484
+2.05

Andrew Bogut
13,887
+2.01

Roy Hibbert
14,695
+1.92

Josh Smith
13,122
+1.90

Hassan Whiteside
18,508
+1.87

Derrick Favors
24,324
+1.86

Myles Turner
17,509
+1.73

Aron Baynes
14,484
+1.71

Joakim Noah
15,511
+1.60

Brook Lopez
25,200
+1.60

Timofey Mozgov
14,696
+1.57

Luc Mbah a Moute
16,502
+1.56

Serge Ibaka
32,865
+1.54

Kyle O’Quinn
11,843
+1.52

Montrezl Harrell
11,001
+1.44

Kevin Durant
35,683
+1.44

Robin Lopez
25,657
+1.43

Al Horford
30,395
+1.41

David West
17,671
+1.40

Clint Capela
18,110
+1.39

Pau Gasol
23,255
+1.38

James Johnson
17,746
+1.33

Josh Richardson
17,276
+1.28

LaMarcus Aldridge
33,382
+1.27

Dewayne Dedmon
13,581
+1.25

Jaylen Brown
13,507
+1.25

Jusuf Nurkic
15,099
+1.24

Giannis Antetokounmpo
33,511
+1.23

Nemanja Bjelica
11,568
+1.15

John Henson
15,221
+1.14

Danny Green
28,467
+1.12

Kosta Koufos
15,534
+1.11

Jerami Grant
20,433
+1.10

Ben Simmons
13,358
+1.10

Steven Adams
28,973
+1.09

Tyler Zeller
11,412
+1.09

Mike Dunleavy
12,931
+1.08

Klay Thompson
41,713
+1.05

Tony Allen
14,520
+1.04

Miles Plumlee
11,556
+1.04

DeMarcus Cousins
24,075
+1.00

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
17,801
+0.99

Justise Winslow
14,191
+0.97

Raymond Felton
16,949
+0.97

Taj Gibson
26,231
+0.96

DeAndre Jordan
34,072
+0.96

Thabo Sefolosha
16,186
+0.95

Kawhi Leonard
27,674
+0.88

Ian Mahinmi
14,184
+0.88

Pascal Siakam
12,798
+0.88

Solomon Hill
14,891
+0.87

Jonas Valanciunas
23,901
+0.85

Marcin Gortat
28,529
+0.84

Kemba Walker
33,021
+0.81

Jrue Holiday
25,597
+0.80

Shaun Livingston
21,495
+0.79

Spencer Hawes
11,803
+0.78

Bismack Biyombo
17,520
+0.78

Maurice Harkless
20,198
+0.77

Wilson Chandler
21,126
+0.76

Amir Johnson
20,436
+0.75

Trevor Booker
16,039
+0.72

Cody Zeller
17,321
+0.72

Alex Len
17,616
+0.71

Marc Gasol
30,496
+0.71

David Lee
12,774
+0.67

George Hill
26,013
+0.64

Langston Galloway
15,734
+0.62

Quincy Acy
10,497
+0.61

Evan Turner
27,518
+0.61

Dwight Powell
12,343
+0.59

Paul Pierce
12,678
+0.59

Cory Joseph
23,771
+0.57

Nikola Mirotic
18,138
+0.57

Jimmy Butler
32,597
+0.54

Jayson Tatum
12,138
+0.53

James Harden
40,828
+0.52

Nerlens Noel
14,418
+0.51

Noah Vonleh
11,214
+0.47

Derrick Rose
17,293
+0.47

Patrick Patterson
21,197
+0.47

Jeremy Lin
18,390
+0.46

Dion Waiters
21,066
+0.45

Domantas Sabonis
11,443
+0.44

Ed Davis
17,428
+0.43

Jared Dudley
18,767
+0.42

Goran Dragic
28,790
+0.41

Aaron Gordon
20,045
+0.40

Marreese Speights
11,425
+0.40

Paul Millsap
30,217
+0.39

CJ McCollum
28,793
+0.38

Justin Holiday
16,591
+0.38

Eric Bledsoe
26,635
+0.36

Tristan Thompson
27,936
+0.36

Jared Sullinger
11,886
+0.35

Trey Lyles
10,302
+0.34

Paul George
32,598
+0.33

Allen Crabbe
18,711
+0.33

Lance Thomas
12,142
+0.32

Gerald Henderson
16,500
+0.31

Tyler Johnson
15,111
+0.30

DeMarre Carroll
26,019
+0.29

Stephen Curry
39,307
+0.27

Mike Conley
23,955
+0.23

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
12,081
+0.21

Mason Plumlee
22,777
+0.21

Dwight Howard
24,588
+0.20

LeBron James
39,997
+0.19

Rudy Gay
24,069
+0.19

JaMychal Green
14,173
+0.18

Patrick Beverley
22,626
+0.17

Blake Griffin
29,325
+0.16

Nikola Vucevic
26,406
+0.16

Damian Lillard
38,628
+0.16

Jae Crowder
27,620
+0.16

Matthew Dellavedova
18,129
+0.16

Kent Bazemore
22,184
+0.16

Mario Chalmers
15,652
+0.15

Luol Deng
18,725
+0.15

Jonas Jerebko
15,123
+0.14

Markieff Morris
26,032
+0.12

Andre Iguodala
29,712
+0.11

Omer Asik
10,195
+0.11

JJ Redick
29,725
+0.10

Anthony Tolliver
17,263
+0.08

Manu Ginobili
16,974
+0.08

Dwyane Wade
25,627
+0.08

PJ Tucker
32,880
+0.08

Austin Rivers
23,087
+0.07

Spencer Dinwiddie
13,248
+0.07

John Wall
31,634
+0.07

Karl-Anthony Towns
23,043
+0.07

Ish Smith
19,446
+0.07

Wesley Matthews
30,095
+0.06

Jeremy Lamb
18,210
+0.06

Chris Bosh
12,709
+0.06

Marvin Williams
25,849
+0.06

Kyle Anderson
12,802
+0.05

Jason Smith
11,230
+0.05

Donovan Mitchell
12,171
+0.04

Isaiah Thomas
23,565
+0.04

Al-Farouq Aminu
26,956
+0.03

CJ Miles
17,938
+0.03

Terry Rozier
13,805
+0.03

Kyle Lowry
35,784
+0.02

Marcus Morris
28,223
+0.02

Reggie Bullock
10,929
+0.01

Gerald Green
18,429
+0.00

Dario Saric
14,499
+0.00

Andre Drummond
31,709
+0.00

Marcus Smart
22,997
+0.00

Terrence Jones
12,064
+0.00

Kelly Olynyk
20,609
-0.01

Brandon Bass
12,616
-0.02

Courtney Lee
25,321
-0.02

Khris Middleton
30,940
-0.03

Jerian Grant
10,248
-0.03

Terrence Ross
23,139
-0.03

Nene
16,100
-0.03

T.J. McConnell
15,302
-0.03

Michael Carter-Williams
17,756
-0.03

Boris Diaw
15,683
-0.04

Jarrett Jack
14,572
-0.05

Malcolm Brogdon
12,073
-0.06

Kyle Kuzma
10,183
-0.06

Mike Muscala
10,947
-0.07

Brandon Ingram
12,815
-0.07

Robert Covington
21,084
-0.07

Vince Carter
18,232
-0.09

Tyson Chandler
18,693
-0.09

Meyers Leonard
10,837
-0.10

Matt Barnes
18,283
-0.10

Tony Snell
20,715
-0.13

Jeff Teague
29,994
-0.13

Nicolas Batum
31,707
-0.13

Bradley Beal
34,063
-0.14

Al Jefferson
14,574
-0.15

Garrett Temple
18,146
-0.15

Aaron Brooks
11,764
-0.17

Iman Shumpert
20,064
-0.17

Willie Cauley-Stein
14,903
-0.17

Enes Kanter
24,020
-0.18

Joe Harris
13,015
-0.19

Bobby Portis
10,791
-0.20

Hollis Thompson
13,414
-0.21

Wesley Johnson
19,012
-0.22

Thaddeus Young
31,870
-0.22

Mirza Teletovic
11,261
-0.22

Jeff Green
28,433
-0.23

Gordon Hayward
26,388
-0.23

Kevin Love
28,026
-0.24

Stanley Johnson
12,913
-0.25

Omri Casspi
13,641
-0.25

Luis Scola
11,128
-0.26

Eric Gordon
28,024
-0.26

Harrison Barnes
33,280
-0.28

Kyle Korver
28,624
-0.28

Nikola Jokic
19,092
-0.29

Devin Harris
15,894
-0.29

Victor Oladipo
28,135
-0.29

Deron Williams
17,520
-0.31

Tobias Harris
31,349
-0.31

Monta Ellis
22,806
-0.32

Jerryd Bayless
13,461
-0.32

Randy Foye
13,985
-0.32

Jason Terry
13,194
-0.32

Dennis Schroder
23,921
-0.33

Zaza Pachulia
17,765
-0.33

Mike Scott
15,790
-0.34

Richard Jefferson
14,457
-0.35

Trey Burke
17,019
-0.36

Dirk Nowitzki
24,696
-0.37

Joe Ingles
22,212
-0.37

Ian Clark
10,859
-0.39

Chandler Parsons
18,098
-0.40

Isaiah Canaan
10,149
-0.40

Tyreke Evans
18,965
-0.40

Ersan Ilyasova
21,881
-0.41

Jordan Hill
10,087
-0.45

Darren Collison
25,990
-0.46

Jodie Meeks
12,673
-0.47

E’Twaun Moore
19,870
-0.48

Larry Nance Jr.
12,949
-0.49

Shelvin Mack
15,274
-0.49

Shane Larkin
10,117
-0.49

Patty Mills
23,097
-0.51

Joe Johnson
25,036
-0.52

Tim Hardaway Jr.
22,178
-0.52

Ryan Anderson
18,873
-0.52

Lance Stephenson
20,349
-0.52

Norman Powell
10,579
-0.53

Kyle Singler
11,355
-0.53

Will Barton
20,048
-0.54

Avery Bradley
26,335
-0.54

T.J. Warren
15,353
-0.55

Tony Parker
22,184
-0.55

Mario Hezonja
10,871
-0.56

Greg Monroe
21,907
-0.56

Nik Stauskas
13,971
-0.56

Danilo Gallinari
17,302
-0.57

Jon Leuer
10,751
-0.57

Chris Paul
31,344
-0.58

James Ennis III
12,375
-0.59

Carmelo Anthony
24,805
-0.59

Andrew Wiggins
29,659
-0.60

Taurean Prince
11,091
-0.62

Rodney Hood
19,067
-0.62

Ramon Sessions
13,288
-0.62

Rodney Stuckey
11,918
-0.63

Gary Harris
19,416
-0.64

JR Smith
25,891
-0.64

Channing Frye
16,675
-0.65

Corey Brewer
21,400
-0.67

Reggie Jackson
25,636
-0.67

Wayne Ellington
17,863
-0.68

Frank Kaminsky
13,278
-0.69

Arron Afflalo
19,467
-0.71

Julius Randle
18,720
-0.72

Doug McDermott
14,334
-0.74

Bojan Bogdanovic
24,638
-0.74

Elfrid Payton
21,014
-0.78

Buddy Hield
13,734
-0.78

Jamal Murray
15,101
-0.79

Brandon Knight
16,757
-0.80

Devin Booker
19,065
-0.80

Lou Williams
26,587
-0.81

Gorgui Dieng
21,118
-0.82

Kenneth Faried
17,635
-0.82

Derrick Williams
11,367
-0.83

Zach Randolph
21,896
-0.84

DeMar DeRozan
36,103
-0.85

Evan Fournier
25,823
-0.85

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
29,067
-0.88

D’Angelo Russell
16,686
-0.90

Emmanuel Mudiay
13,309
-0.90

Ben McLemore
17,957
-0.94

Norris Cole
11,175
-0.97

Jameer Nelson
15,646
-0.97

Kyrie Irving
31,938
-0.99

Ricky Rubio
26,045
-0.99

Jordan Clarkson
22,324
-1.03

Otto Porter Jr.
24,148
-1.03

Russell Westbrook
35,302
-1.04

Jonathon Simmons
11,869
-1.05

Kelly Oubre Jr.
14,377
-1.08

Brandon Jennings
14,286
-1.16

Dante Cunningham
19,597
-1.17

Anthony Morrow
10,184
-1.18

Marco Belinelli
23,994
-1.19

D.J. Augustin
22,122
-1.22

Jabari Parker
15,480
-1.24

Trevor Ariza
37,477
-1.25

J.J. Barea
16,230
-1.25

Nick Young
14,675
-1.26

Jamal Crawford
25,169
-1.28

Ty Lawson
17,022
-1.31

Zach LaVine
17,990
-1.36

Alec Burks
14,268
-1.49

Jose Calderon
16,539
-1.54

Rajon Rondo
22,941
-1.55

* Defensive Rating Accounting for Yielding Minimal Openness by Nearest Defender

And hereâs the data for last season (2018-19), with a minimum of 2,000 possessions defended. The Jazzâs Derrick Favors was the top defender, followed by the Knicksâ Mitchell Robinson, while the Cavaliersâ Collin Sexton was the worst defender in the league.

The best DRAYMOND defenders of 2018-19

NBA players by DRAYMOND* defensive ratings, based on opponentsâ shooting data in the regular season and playoffs, with a minimum of 2,000 possessions played in 2018-19

Player
Possessions played
DRAYMOND RATING

Derrick Favors
4,036
+3.74

Mitchell Robinson
2,882
+3.32

Derrick Jones Jr.
2,389
+3.10

Jusuf Nurkic
4,212
+3.03

Maxi Kleber
3,168
+2.94

Hassan Whiteside
3,490
+2.89

Rudy Gobert
5,786
+2.82

Kevon Looney
4,145
+2.72

Serge Ibaka
5,258
+2.63

Richaun Holmes
2,558
+2.54

Brook Lopez
6,040
+2.53

Myles Turner
4,656
+2.43

Ivica Zubac
2,365
+2.43

Joel Embiid
5,419
+2.40

Robin Lopez
3,387
+2.35

Torrey Craig
3,798
+2.33

Jonas Valanciunas
2,345
+2.25

Evan Turner
3,896
+2.23

Bruce Brown
3,135
+2.21

James Johnson
2,419
+2.19

Aron Baynes
2,033
+2.17

JaVale McGee
3,690
+2.17

Nerlens Noel
2,437
+2.15

Giannis Antetokounmpo
6,339
+2.13

Shabazz Napier
2,193
+1.92

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2,511
+1.92

Pat Connaughton
3,493
+1.90

Montrezl Harrell
5,060
+1.82

LaMarcus Aldridge
6,012
+1.82

Draymond Green
6,260
+1.76

Nemanja Bjelica
3,950
+1.76

Derrick White
3,964
+1.74

Josh Hart
3,796
+1.72

Wes Iwundu
2,757
+1.69

Pascal Siakam
7,195
+1.65

Cody Zeller
2,639
+1.64

Jahlil Okafor
2,039
+1.52

Jaren Jackson Jr.
3,076
+1.51

Kyle Anderson
2,606
+1.50

Gary Harris
4,427
+1.42

Jared Dudley
2,749
+1.40

James Harden
6,754
+1.40

Mason Plumlee
4,086
+1.33

Dorian Finney-Smith
4,200
+1.31

Jayson Tatum
5,809
+1.26

Patrick Beverley
5,029
+1.25

Eric Bledsoe
5,900
+1.23

Al Horford
4,834
+1.18

Jaylen Brown
4,698
+1.18

Anthony Davis
4,014
+1.15

Dennis Smith Jr.
3,200
+1.15

Brandon Ingram
3,850
+1.15

Clint Capela
5,313
+1.13

Cory Joseph
4,489
+1.13

Thon Maker
2,220
+1.11

Dwight Powell
3,524
+1.10

Allen Crabbe
2,444
+1.09

Seth Curry
3,615
+1.03

Andre Drummond
5,709
+1.01

Lonzo Ball
3,122
+1.00

Ben Simmons
6,761
+0.97

D.J. Wilson
2,055
+0.96

Kevin Durant
6,753
+0.94

Markieff Morris
2,863
+0.94

Nikola Vucevic
5,515
+0.94

John Collins
4,039
+0.88

Shaquille Harrison
3,032
+0.88

Malcolm Brogdon
4,463
+0.88

Nikola Jokic
6,263
+0.87

Jarrett Allen
4,774
+0.87

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
5,090
+0.87

PJ Tucker
6,632
+0.85

DeAndre Jordan
4,300
+0.83

Juancho Hernangomez
2,863
+0.83

Klay Thompson
7,394
+0.80

Steven Adams
6,187
+0.78

Spencer Dinwiddie
4,395
+0.77

Dewayne Dedmon
3,516
+0.76

Royce O’Neale
3,884
+0.75

Marc Gasol
6,448
+0.74

Gordon Hayward
4,582
+0.74

Bam Adebayo
4,006
+0.73

Norman Powell
3,207
+0.71

CJ McCollum
6,340
+0.70

Darius Miller
3,861
+0.70

Jerami Grant
6,093
+0.70

Rudy Gay
4,216
+0.69

Robert Covington
2,548
+0.69

George Hill
3,632
+0.69

Maurice Harkless
3,833
+0.66

Wendell Carter Jr.
2,311
+0.65

Trey Lyles
2,390
+0.64

Jakob Poeltl
3,061
+0.64

Mike Muscala
2,889
+0.64

Jimmy Butler
5,562
+0.62

T.J. McConnell
3,358
+0.62

Nicolas Batum
4,923
+0.62

Kemba Walker
5,962
+0.62

Deandre Ayton
4,645
+0.62

Jonathan Isaac
4,456
+0.61

Paul Millsap
4,866
+0.59

Kyle Lowry
6,510
+0.57

Trey Burke
2,387
+0.57

Josh Jackson
4,267
+0.56

Karl-Anthony Towns
5,392
+0.53

Andre Iguodala
4,742
+0.52

Zach Collins
3,419
+0.49

Emmanuel Mudiay
3,418
+0.48

Eric Gordon
5,347
+0.45

Delon Wright
3,611
+0.43

Avery Bradley
4,044
+0.42

Damian Lillard
7,338
+0.40

Alex Len
3,489
+0.40

LeBron James
4,228
+0.40

Danuel House Jr.
2,369
+0.40

Nikola Mirotic
3,444
+0.39

Ish Smith
2,763
+0.39

Mike Conley
4,816
+0.38

Tyreke Evans
3,134
+0.35

Dwyane Wade
4,006
+0.34

Jae Crowder
4,940
+0.34

Daniel Theis
2,061
+0.34

D’Angelo Russell
5,600
+0.33

Justin Holiday
5,432
+0.31

Terry Rozier
4,133
+0.30

Rodions Kurucs
3,041
+0.28

Derrick Rose
3,020
+0.27

Kawhi Leonard
6,178
+0.25

Langston Galloway
3,888
+0.24

Jrue Holiday
5,233
+0.24

Larry Nance Jr.
3,684
+0.23

Elfrid Payton
2,778
+0.23

Ed Davis
3,157
+0.23

Domantas Sabonis
4,021
+0.22

Thomas Bryant
3,241
+0.17

Josh Richardson
5,296
+0.16

Andrew Wiggins
5,400
+0.14

Davis Bertans
3,653
+0.12

Rodney Hood
4,642
+0.12

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
2,847
+0.11

Goran Dragic
2,134
+0.11

Tony Snell
2,947
+0.11

Austin Rivers
4,753
+0.11

Dario Saric
4,371
+0.11

Paul George
6,639
+0.09

Kenrich Williams
2,390
+0.09

Noah Vonleh
3,662
+0.08

Danny Green
6,093
+0.08

Fred VanVleet
4,882
+0.08

Shaun Livingston
2,710
+0.08

Rodney McGruder
3,272
+0.03

Joe Harris
5,271
+0.02

Wayne Ellington
2,965
+0.02

Enes Kanter
4,397
+0.01

Marcus Smart
4,760
-0.01

Cheick Diallo
2,016
-0.02

Landry Shamet
4,303
-0.05

OG Anunoby
2,920
-0.05

Aaron Gordon
5,817
-0.06

Jeff Teague
2,695
-0.07

Thaddeus Young
5,391
-0.08

Justin Jackson
3,505
-0.16

Tyler Johnson
3,241
-0.17

De’Aaron Fox
5,626
-0.17

Khris Middleton
6,334
-0.19

Ersan Ilyasova
3,315
-0.20

Kelly Olynyk
3,795
-0.21

Buddy Hield
5,744
-0.22

Alfonzo McKinnie
2,709
-0.22

Tobias Harris
6,998
-0.24

Ryan Arcidiacono
4,105
-0.25

Kyle Kuzma
5,063
-0.25

Jake Layman
2,861
-0.25

Tristan Thompson
2,445
-0.25

Sterling Brown
2,651
-0.29

Marvin Bagley III
3,418
-0.30

Garrett Temple
4,386
-0.31

Bojan Bogdanovic
5,659
-0.32

David Nwaba
2,034
-0.32

Mike Scott
3,520
-0.32

Marcus Morris
5,009
-0.33

Terrance Ferguson
4,504
-0.33

Wilson Chandler
2,670
-0.33

Willie Cauley-Stein
4,851
-0.37

Dion Waiters
2,334
-0.38

Jordan Clarkson
4,606
-0.40

Jabari Parker
3,713
-0.40

Anthony Tolliver
2,328
-0.40

Justise Winslow
4,093
-0.41

Julius Randle
4,889
-0.41

De’Anthony Melton
2,112
-0.41

Stephen Curry
6,852
-0.42

Dennis Schroder
5,385
-0.42

Kris Dunn
2,898
-0.42

Harrison Barnes
5,415
-0.42

Ante Zizic
2,259
-0.44

JJ Redick
6,068
-0.44

Doug McDermott
2,906
-0.45

Taj Gibson
3,607
-0.47

Bogdan Bogdanovic
4,205
-0.48

Jamal Murray
6,100
-0.53

DeMarre Carroll
3,942
-0.54

Stanley Johnson
2,607
-0.54

Marco Belinelli
4,179
-0.55

Jonas Jerebko
2,863
-0.56

Kelly Oubre Jr.
4,215
-0.56

Evan Fournier
5,642
-0.56

Gorgui Dieng
2,247
-0.59

Blake Griffin
5,538
-0.61

Monte Morris
4,561
-0.62

Danilo Gallinari
4,818
-0.65

JaMychal Green
3,244
-0.66

Jeff Green
4,501
-0.67

Jonathon Simmons
2,408
-0.79

Bradley Beal
6,505
-0.80

Luka Doncic
4,912
-0.81

Lauri Markkanen
3,496
-0.81

Iman Shumpert
3,455
-0.83

Zach LaVine
4,547
-0.83

Russell Westbrook
6,193
-0.84

Tony Parker
2,145
-0.85

Devin Harris
2,267
-0.85

Elie Okobo
2,040
-0.85

Reggie Bullock
3,974
-0.86

Chris Paul
4,743
-0.89

Allonzo Trier
3,104
-0.90

John Wall
2,404
-0.91

Yogi Ferrell
2,330
-0.92

Al-Farouq Aminu
5,689
-0.92

Devin Booker
4,792
-0.93

Jeremy Lamb
4,710
-0.93

Jalen Brunson
3,346
-0.94

DeMar DeRozan
6,023
-0.96

Patty Mills
4,431
-0.96

Caris LeVert
2,593
-0.97

Mikal Bridges
5,176
-0.98

Jerian Grant
2,016
-0.99

DeAndre’ Bembry
4,311
-1.00

Will Barton
3,155
-1.00

Vince Carter
2,998
-1.00

Wesley Matthews
4,656
-1.01

Kyrie Irving
5,434
-1.01

Alec Burks
2,874
-1.06

Tomas Satoransky
4,634
-1.07

Kent Bazemore
3,658
-1.07

Donovan Mitchell
5,923
-1.08

Cedi Osman
5,021
-1.10

Otto Porter Jr.
3,634
-1.14

Terrence Ross
4,804
-1.14

Taurean Prince
3,462
-1.14

Tim Hardaway Jr.
4,345
-1.16

Joe Ingles
5,832
-1.17

Lance Stephenson
2,511
-1.20

Luke Kennard
3,218
-1.21

Mario Hezonja
2,549
-1.22

Marvin Williams
4,467
-1.22

Miles Bridges
3,625
-1.35

Damyean Dotson
4,241
-1.36

Kevin Knox
4,596
-1.42

Gerald Green
3,324
-1.43

E’Twaun Moore
3,187
-1.44

Darren Collison
4,693
-1.44

Ricky Rubio
4,414
-1.44

Josh Okogie
3,830
-1.45

Wayne Selden
3,048
-1.49

Bobby Portis
2,773
-1.50

Lou Williams
4,812
-1.67

Shelvin Mack
2,577
-1.69

D.J. Augustin
4,990
-1.77

Rajon Rondo
2,992
-1.79

Tyus Jones
3,348
-1.79

Reggie Jackson
4,971
-1.82

Bryn Forbes
5,200
-1.82

Trae Young
5,570
-1.83

Victor Oladipo
2,362
-1.84

Malik Beasley
4,532
-1.88

Ian Clark
2,165
-1.95

Jeremy Lin
3,270
-1.96

Malik Monk
2,703
-1.98

Frank Jackson
2,628
-2.10

Quinn Cook
2,649
-2.11

Nik Stauskas
2,164
-2.23

T.J. Warren
2,895
-2.27

Kyle Korver
2,966
-2.29

Meyers Leonard
2,212
-2.31

Jamal Crawford
2,647
-2.40

Kevin Huerter
4,544
-2.46

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
4,447
-2.49

James Ennis III
3,105
-2.68

Tim Frazier
2,554
-3.01

Trevor Ariza
4,997
-3.25

Collin Sexton
5,374
-3.59

* Defensive Rating Accounting for Yielding Minimal Openness by Nearest Defender

You can download a complete set of DRAYMOND data dating back to 2013-14 at this link.

But does DRAYMOND measure something thatâs actually meaningful? To test this — and I have to apologize because there are a lot of similarly named statistics here with confusing acronyms — we regressed DRAYMOND and defensive BPM5 against five-year defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). What the hell does that mean? BPM is based on conventional box score statistics — most importantly rebounds, blocks and steals for the purposes of measuring defense. DRAYMOND is based on opponentsâ shooting. RAPM, meanwhile, measures how much better or worse a team plays when a player is on or off the floor. In the long run, RAPM is basically6 the ârightâ way to measure player value, since it can account for all the direct and indirect contributions a player makes that may or may not have a corresponding statistic attached to them. In the short run and even the medium run, however (remember all that misleading data people cited about how the Warriors were so good without Kevin Durant?), RAPM can be extremely noisy. So RAPM is great if youâre looking back over a five-year sample, as weâre doing here, but on-court/off-court statistics need to be treated with extreme caution over small samples.

In any event, what we found is that BPM and DRAYMOND basically do equally well in predicting long-term RAPM. What that means is that the opponentsâ shooting data is basically as powerful as all box score defensive statistics combined in predicting how much value a playerâs defense truly has over the long run.

We also found, however, that BPM and DRAYMOND are largely not redundant with one another. Blocks, steals and rebounds, which BPM captures, are certainly valuable things, and DRAYMOND does not purport to measure those. But they are also not especially good proxies for shooting defense. There are some players such as Green and Gobert who are even better defenders than youâd gather from their box score stats, even though those stats are pretty good. But there are others like Trevor Ariza, who gets lots of steals but has been rated poorly by DRAYMOND in recent seasons. That doesnât mean that Ariza is a poor defender, just that you need to take the good (steals) with the bad (allows opponents to convert field goals at a high rate) when evaluating him.

Letâs conclude with a list of players who are most affected, positively or negatively, by the incorporation of DRAYMOND. The table below compares our old CARMELO defensive ratings, which were based on a mix of two-thirds RPM and one-third BPM, to our new version, which still uses these statistics but also uses DRAYMOND.7 Here are the old and new defensive ratings for everyone with at least 10,000 possessions played since 2013-14.

Which playersâ defense had been underrated or overrated?

Change in CARMELO defensive ratings since 2013-14 after incorporating DRAYMOND*, for players with a minimum of 10,000 possessions

CARMELO DEFENSIVE RATING

Player
Old (based on RPM and BPM)
New (incorporating DRAYMOND)
Net Change

Kristaps Porzingis
+1.50
+2.65
+1.15

Joel Embiid
+3.16
+4.17
+1.01

Nemanja Bjelica
+0.86
+1.68
+0.82

Josh Smith
+1.60
+2.39
+0.80

Brook Lopez
+1.22
+2.00
+0.78

Timofey Mozgov
+1.38
+2.11
+0.72

Anthony Davis
+2.85
+3.56
+0.71

Kemba Walker
-0.80
-0.10
+0.70

Aron Baynes
+1.82
+2.49
+0.66

Draymond Green
+4.43
+5.09
+0.66

Isaiah Thomas
-2.62
-1.99
+0.63

Luc Mbah a Moute
+1.59
+2.21
+0.62

Raymond Felton
-0.74
-0.13
+0.61

Montrezl Harrell
-0.05
+0.56
+0.61

Derrick Favors
+2.03
+2.63
+0.61

Wilson Chandler
-0.75
-0.15
+0.60

Andre Roberson
+2.47
+3.07
+0.60

Jaylen Brown
+0.11
+0.71
+0.60

Dewayne Dedmon
+2.04
+2.62
+0.59

Klay Thompson
-0.91
-0.34
+0.57

Tyler Zeller
+0.62
+1.19
+0.57

Matthew Dellavedova
-1.16
-0.60
+0.56

Jerami Grant
+0.27
+0.82
+0.55

Jrue Holiday
+0.72
+1.25
+0.54

Langston Galloway
-0.81
-0.30
+0.51

Mirza Teletovic
-1.67
-1.20
+0.47

Kevin Durant
+0.57
+1.03
+0.46

Jeremy Lin
-0.41
+0.04
+0.45

Robin Lopez
+1.24
+1.68
+0.44

Mike Conley
-0.38
+0.06
+0.44

LaMarcus Aldridge
+1.19
+1.62
+0.43

Rudy Gobert
+4.66
+5.09
+0.43

Derrick Rose
-2.11
-1.68
+0.43

Kosta Koufos
+1.57
+1.99
+0.42

JJ Redick
-1.66
-1.25
+0.41

Quincy Acy
-0.21
+0.19
+0.39

Serge Ibaka
+1.53
+1.92
+0.39

Gerald Green
-1.82
-1.44
+0.38

Myles Turner
+2.35
+2.72
+0.37

Roy Hibbert
+2.34
+2.71
+0.36

Clint Capela
+2.18
+2.54
+0.36

Trey Burke
-2.72
-2.36
+0.36

Spencer Hawes
+0.77
+1.12
+0.36

Eric Gordon
-1.76
-1.41
+0.35

Isaiah Canaan
-2.13
-1.79
+0.34

Jonas Valanciunas
+0.57
+0.91
+0.34

Hassan Whiteside
+2.74
+3.08
+0.34

Alex Len
+1.05
+1.38
+0.33

Josh Richardson
+0.43
+0.75
+0.32

Goran Dragic
-0.92
-0.61
+0.32

James Harden
-0.33
-0.02
+0.31

Anthony Tolliver
-0.28
+0.02
+0.31

Hollis Thompson
-2.08
-1.77
+0.31

Bradley Beal
-0.95
-0.64
+0.30

Trey Lyles
-0.46
-0.16
+0.30

Miles Plumlee
+0.85
+1.15
+0.30

CJ McCollum
-1.18
-0.89
+0.29

Dion Waiters
-1.16
-0.87
+0.29

James Johnson
+1.49
+1.78
+0.29

Mike Dunleavy
+0.89
+1.17
+0.29

Tim Duncan
+4.86
+5.14
+0.28

Ryan Anderson
-1.85
-1.57
+0.28

Mario Chalmers
+0.25
+0.53
+0.28

Lance Thomas
-1.01
-0.75
+0.26

Jarrett Jack
-1.23
-0.98
+0.25

Paul Pierce
+0.83
+1.08
+0.25

Aaron Gordon
+0.27
+0.52
+0.25

Devin Booker
-2.76
-2.51
+0.25

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
+1.66
+1.91
+0.25

Andrew Wiggins
-2.06
-1.82
+0.24

Marreese Speights
-0.54
-0.31
+0.23

Spencer Dinwiddie
-1.30
-1.07
+0.23

CJ Miles
-0.86
-0.63
+0.23

Taj Gibson
+1.23
+1.45
+0.22

Ish Smith
-0.57
-0.35
+0.22

Al Horford
+2.23
+2.45
+0.22

Reggie Bullock
-0.91
-0.69
+0.22

Dwight Powell
+1.04
+1.26
+0.22

Jeff Teague
-0.75
-0.53
+0.22

Austin Rivers
-1.70
-1.49
+0.21

Cory Joseph
-0.15
+0.06
+0.21

Terrence Ross
-1.48
-1.27
+0.20

Steven Adams
+1.61
+1.81
+0.19

Jared Dudley
+0.88
+1.07
+0.19

Dennis Schroder
-2.10
-1.91
+0.19

Justin Holiday
-0.09
+0.09
+0.18

Damian Lillard
-1.27
-1.08
+0.18

Jeff Green
-0.99
-0.81
+0.18

Lou Williams
-2.83
-2.64
+0.18

Jerian Grant
-0.75
-0.57
+0.18

Patrick Patterson
+0.14
+0.31
+0.18

Deron Williams
-0.92
-0.74
+0.17

Vince Carter
+0.26
+0.44
+0.17

John Wall
+0.10
+0.27
+0.17

Eric Bledsoe
+0.81
+0.98
+0.17

Marcin Gortat
+2.26
+2.42
+0.16

Tim Hardaway Jr.
-2.23
-2.07
+0.16

Allen Crabbe
-1.50
-1.34
+0.16

Gerald Henderson
-0.76
-0.60
+0.15

George Hill
+0.38
+0.53
+0.15

Jason Smith
-0.44
-0.30
+0.15

Jodie Meeks
-1.90
-1.75
+0.15

Giannis Antetokounmpo
+1.80
+1.94
+0.14

Nikola Mirotic
+0.79
+0.93
+0.14

Jeremy Lamb
-0.32
-0.18
+0.13

Solomon Hill
+0.29
+0.42
+0.13

Devin Harris
-0.80
-0.67
+0.13

Jason Terry
-0.54
-0.42
+0.12

Brandon Knight
-2.13
-2.01
+0.12

Danny Green
+2.20
+2.32
+0.12

Chris Bosh
+1.14
+1.25
+0.12

John Henson
+1.31
+1.42
+0.12

Rudy Gay
+0.31
+0.42
+0.11

Jordan Clarkson
-2.79
-2.68
+0.11

Wesley Matthews
-0.46
-0.35
+0.11

DeMarcus Cousins
+2.58
+2.68
+0.10

Trevor Booker
+0.47
+0.57
+0.10

Evan Turner
-0.14
-0.04
+0.10

Domantas Sabonis
+0.93
+1.03
+0.09

Bojan Bogdanovic
-2.29
-2.20
+0.09

Aaron Brooks
-2.47
-2.38
+0.09

Markieff Morris
+0.76
+0.85
+0.09

Kyle Kuzma
-1.15
-1.07
+0.08

Bobby Portis
-1.45
-1.37
+0.08

Donovan Mitchell
+0.26
+0.34
+0.08

Kyle O’Quinn
+2.12
+2.20
+0.08

JaMychal Green
-0.39
-0.32
+0.07

Karl-Anthony Towns
+0.31
+0.38
+0.07

Stephen Curry
+0.33
+0.39
+0.06

Darren Collison
-1.34
-1.28
+0.06

Marcus Morris
-0.48
-0.42
+0.06

Khris Middleton
-0.17
-0.11
+0.06

Brandon Ingram
-1.01
-0.95
+0.06

Pau Gasol
+2.16
+2.21
+0.05

Jared Sullinger
+1.24
+1.29
+0.05

DeMarre Carroll
+0.58
+0.63
+0.05

Danilo Gallinari
-0.44
-0.40
+0.05

Nick Young
-2.61
-2.56
+0.05

Brandon Bass
-0.13
-0.08
+0.04

Ramon Sessions
-1.74
-1.70
+0.03

Tony Allen
+2.82
+2.86
+0.03

Enes Kanter
-1.59
-1.55
+0.03

Shaun Livingston
+0.18
+0.21
+0.03

Paul George
+1.30
+1.32
+0.03

Mike Scott
-1.18
-1.15
+0.03

Buddy Hield
-1.61
-1.59
+0.02

Evan Fournier
-1.48
-1.45
+0.02

Wayne Ellington
-1.29
-1.27
+0.02

Jerryd Bayless
-1.88
-1.86
+0.02

Tristan Thompson
+0.17
+0.19
+0.02

Maurice Harkless
+0.41
+0.42
+0.02

Randy Foye
-1.05
-1.04
+0.02

Jonas Jerebko
+0.23
+0.24
+0.02

Joe Harris
-1.57
-1.56
+0.01

Nik Stauskas
-2.08
-2.07
+0.01

Jae Crowder
+0.38
+0.39
+0.01

Malcolm Brogdon
-0.63
-0.62
+0.00

Dario Saric
-0.80
-0.79
+0.00

Dirk Nowitzki
+0.06
+0.05
+0.00

Shane Larkin
-1.12
-1.12
-0.01

Kevin Love
+1.16
+1.15
-0.01

T.J. Warren
-1.66
-1.67
-0.01

Luol Deng
+0.57
+0.56
-0.01

Richard Jefferson
-0.76
-0.77
-0.01

J.J. Barea
-2.39
-2.41
-0.01

Kyle Lowry
+0.89
+0.88
-0.01

Kyle Korver
+0.20
+0.19
-0.02

Zach LaVine
-2.74
-2.76
-0.02

Kawhi Leonard
+2.28
+2.25
-0.03

Courtney Lee
-0.71
-0.75
-0.03

Noah Vonleh
+0.95
+0.91
-0.04

Jimmy Butler
+1.32
+1.28
-0.04

Omri Casspi
-0.11
-0.15
-0.05

Dwyane Wade
-0.55
-0.60
-0.05

Bismack Biyombo
+1.46
+1.40
-0.06

Shelvin Mack
-1.28
-1.34
-0.06

Tony Parker
-1.44
-1.50
-0.06

Cody Zeller
+2.11
+2.05
-0.06

Jusuf Nurkic
+3.25
+3.18
-0.06

Jamal Murray
-1.66
-1.72
-0.07

Garrett Temple
+0.35
+0.28
-0.07

Marvin Williams
+0.59
+0.52
-0.07

Patty Mills
-1.01
-1.08
-0.07

Tyler Johnson
-0.24
-0.31
-0.07

Justise Winslow
+1.41
+1.34
-0.07

Reggie Jackson
-1.15
-1.23
-0.07

Tobias Harris
-0.40
-0.47
-0.07

David West
+2.61
+2.53
-0.08

Amir Johnson
+2.46
+2.38
-0.08

Rodney Hood
-1.25
-1.34
-0.09

Brandon Jennings
-2.44
-2.53
-0.09

Thabo Sefolosha
+2.21
+2.12
-0.09

Pascal Siakam
+1.64
+1.55
-0.09

Patrick Beverley
+0.93
+0.83
-0.09

Gary Harris
-0.94
-1.04
-0.09

Jameer Nelson
-1.84
-1.93
-0.10

Manu Ginobili
+0.71
+0.61
-0.10

Victor Oladipo
+0.85
+0.75
-0.10

Jayson Tatum
+1.44
+1.34
-0.10

David Lee
+1.29
+1.19
-0.10

Tyreke Evans
-0.64
-0.74
-0.10

Kent Bazemore
+0.31
+0.21
-0.11

Michael Carter-Williams
+0.23
+0.12
-0.11

Joe Johnson
-0.91
-1.02
-0.11

Ian Clark
-1.99
-2.10
-0.11

Tony Snell
-0.85
-0.97
-0.11

Doug McDermott
-2.42
-2.53
-0.11

Carmelo Anthony
-1.31
-1.43
-0.11

Nikola Vucevic
+1.83
+1.71
-0.12

Arron Afflalo
-2.24
-2.36
-0.12

Meyers Leonard
-0.31
-0.43
-0.12

D.J. Augustin
-2.33
-2.45
-0.12

Kyle Singler
-0.50
-0.64
-0.14

Marc Gasol
+2.49
+2.36
-0.14

Taurean Prince
-0.69
-0.83
-0.14

Gordon Hayward
-0.11
-0.25
-0.15

Rodney Stuckey
-1.33
-1.47
-0.15

T.J. McConnell
-0.40
-0.55
-0.15

LeBron James
+1.74
+1.58
-0.15

Channing Frye
+0.26
+0.10
-0.16

Mario Hezonja
-1.07
-1.23
-0.16

Emmanuel Mudiay
-2.25
-2.41
-0.17

Will Barton
-0.98
-1.15
-0.17

Blake Griffin
+0.97
+0.80
-0.17

Ersan Ilyasova
-0.23
-0.40
-0.17

Thaddeus Young
+1.19
+1.01
-0.18

Mike Muscala
+0.58
+0.40
-0.18

Avery Bradley
-0.62
-0.80
-0.18

Kelly Olynyk
+0.90
+0.71
-0.18

Monta Ellis
-0.39
-0.58
-0.19

Ben McLemore
-1.15
-1.34
-0.19

Anthony Morrow
-1.67
-1.86
-0.19

D’Angelo Russell
-1.66
-1.86
-0.20

Omer Asik
+1.87
+1.67
-0.20

Ben Simmons
+1.70
+1.49
-0.21

Harrison Barnes
-0.33
-0.54
-0.21

Norris Cole
-1.61
-1.83
-0.21

JR Smith
-0.99
-1.21
-0.22

Matt Barnes
+0.57
+0.34
-0.23

Ian Mahinmi
+3.03
+2.80
-0.23

DeAndre Jordan
+3.11
+2.87
-0.24

Tyson Chandler
+2.47
+2.23
-0.24

Jon Leuer
+0.39
+0.15
-0.24

Derrick Williams
-2.07
-2.32
-0.25

Andrew Bogut
+5.17
+4.92
-0.25

Ed Davis
+1.71
+1.46
-0.25

PJ Tucker
+1.23
+0.98
-0.25

Frank Kaminsky
-0.74
-1.00
-0.25

Terry Rozier
+0.09
-0.17
-0.26

Robert Covington
+2.35
+2.08
-0.26

Jordan Hill
-0.25
-0.52
-0.27

E’Twaun Moore
-1.25
-1.53
-0.28

Nene
+2.73
+2.44
-0.29

Jamal Crawford
-3.25
-3.54
-0.29

Chandler Parsons
-0.00
-0.30
-0.30

Elfrid Payton
-0.35
-0.65
-0.30

Joakim Noah
+3.28
+2.97
-0.30

Marco Belinelli
-2.47
-2.78
-0.31

Corey Brewer
-0.16
-0.46
-0.31

Stanley Johnson
+0.55
+0.25
-0.31

Paul Millsap
+2.64
+2.32
-0.32

Iman Shumpert
+0.80
+0.48
-0.32

Willie Cauley-Stein
+1.24
+0.92
-0.32

Julius Randle
-0.62
-0.94
-0.33

James Ennis III
-0.28
-0.62
-0.34

Dwight Howard
+2.46
+2.12
-0.34

Joe Ingles
+0.83
+0.48
-0.35

Marcus Smart
+1.11
+0.76
-0.35

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
+1.15
+0.80
-0.35

Kelly Oubre Jr.
-0.95
-1.30
-0.35

Ty Lawson
-1.62
-1.98
-0.36

Terrence Jones
-0.56
-0.93
-0.37

Nicolas Batum
+0.15
-0.22
-0.37

Boris Diaw
+0.73
+0.35
-0.37

Kyrie Irving
-1.42
-1.79
-0.37

DeMar DeRozan
-1.15
-1.55
-0.39

Norman Powell
-0.51
-0.92
-0.41

Wesley Johnson
+0.67
+0.26
-0.41

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
-0.38
-0.80
-0.42

Ricky Rubio
+1.32
+0.89
-0.42

Al-Farouq Aminu
+1.91
+1.49
-0.43

Chris Paul
+1.46
+1.03
-0.43

Andre Drummond
+1.84
+1.40
-0.44

Luis Scola
+0.30
-0.15
-0.45

Al Jefferson
+0.90
+0.45
-0.46

Zach Randolph
+0.12
-0.34
-0.46

Larry Nance Jr.
+2.01
+1.54
-0.46

Nerlens Noel
+3.36
+2.89
-0.47

Mason Plumlee
+1.40
+0.93
-0.47

Jose Calderon
-1.67
-2.14
-0.48

Greg Monroe
+0.81
+0.32
-0.50

Kenneth Faried
-0.30
-0.82
-0.52

Jabari Parker
-1.46
-1.99
-0.53

Nikola Jokic
+2.62
+2.08
-0.53

Jonathon Simmons
-0.92
-1.47
-0.55

Alec Burks
-1.50
-2.08
-0.58

Lance Stephenson
-0.53
-1.13
-0.59

Andre Iguodala
+1.89
+1.27
-0.61

Gorgui Dieng
+1.66
+1.03
-0.62

Otto Porter Jr.
+0.78
+0.15
-0.63

Zaza Pachulia
+2.47
+1.74
-0.72

Trevor Ariza
+0.78
+0.03
-0.75

Kyle Anderson
+2.91
+2.14
-0.77

Dante Cunningham
-0.05
-0.85
-0.80

Rajon Rondo
-0.21
-1.17
-0.95

Russell Westbrook
+1.16
+0.02
-1.14

* Defensive Rating Accounting for Yielding Minimal Openness by Nearest Defender

These are some pretty interesting lists. Porzingis, Embiid, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are among the players whose defense had been most underrated by BPM and RPM. Thereâs also new Boston Celtics point guard Kemba Walker and, in something of a surprise, former Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas, who still rates as a pretty terrible defender, just not quite as terrible as before when you incorporate his DRAYMOND data. The most overrated defenders include players such as Westbrook, Rondo, Ariza, Otto Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic.

Cases such as Thompson and Westbrook are interesting because the conventional wisdom has been way off from where the advanced metrics have them. RPM and BPM say that Westbrook is the much better defensive player, when a lot of NBA general managers might prefer Thompson or at least would regard it as close. But Thompson is a good defender according to DRAYMOND, whereas Westbrook is a wretched one, which closes at least some of the gap. Undoubtedly, there are even better ways to use opponentsâ shooting data than what weâve established with DRAYMOND, but the data ought to be a central part of the conversation about player defense going forward.