The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

Predictions, regardless of their accuracy, help us think about the future and learn about the now. For its June 02019 issue, The Atlantic features an adapted essay on the practice of predicting the future from David Epstein’s recent book, Range. 

The track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain that their deep knowledge has granted them a special grasp of what is to come.

David Epstein writing in The Atlantic.