A 2020 Draft: Which States Are Most Likely To Go Blue?

Today we’re bringing you a special edition of our weekly politics chat from an airport in Houston, where FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver and managing editor Micah Cohen have decided to do a semi-live politics chat in a series of tweets. Follow along!

OK, here's the rules. We're going to draft "teams" of states, based on their likelihood of going Democratic in 2020. Here's the twist: the winning "team" is based on how many *electoral votes* your states contain, provided that they actually go blue.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

Micah goes first, based on winning the coin toss, as you can see from this beautiful picture of the IAH carpeting. pic.twitter.com/MH0DRCPkP4

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

Bad pick. According to Mark Halperin, Jeb Bush is going to put California in play for Republicans next year. https://t.co/qaV4yb3Jhm

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

wait a sec… a two-person snake draft?!?!?!?

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

We're running out of good picks pretty fast. And the problem is, I don't know if I can catch up to your solid blue base. So I might have to gamble a bit. I'm going with FL and PA.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

You're prob right. I'll get a little more bold now.

VA and MD.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

I'm going with what I think is a pretty obvious pick at this point: Massachusetts. And for my not-so-obvious pick, I'm adding to my list of states where Nate has lived in, with Michigan.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

BTW, I don't think you're putting enough weight on the chances that Dems will lose some of these states.

I'm going MN and … TX!!!!

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Partly that. And partly just so Nate couldn't pick it.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

GA and OH.

Bam!

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Connecticut and Arizona.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Nate's pick might be delayed slightly… we're boarding and … well, first class people are better than the rest of us.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Ugh those were my picks. Hawaii and Rhode Island.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Maine gets you however many electoral votes Democrats get from Maine, including the Congressional Districts.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

Maine and Iowa

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Sheesh. Ok I’m making the turn … Indiana and South Carolina.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Louisiana and Kansas.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Mississippi and Tennessee

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

The "Mitt Romney runs as an independent spoiler" pick!

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 9, 2019

So what’s left? I pick the two with the most EC votes

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

The Dakotas!

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Nah, I went with the Dakotas.

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) May 9, 2019

Hashtag content. Also, my team is better than yours.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 9, 2019

OK, I think you guys did about the same! By my probabilistic reckoning, Micah comes out with 3 more EVs than Nate, but that could easily change if you just tweak some of the odds I've assigned some swing states.

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 9, 2019

I think there were times when Micah could have created more distance over Nate, like FL over WA or MA over MD. But it wouldn't have made a huge difference.

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 9, 2019