Eritrea beyond the media fanfare

So far, the only real beneficiaries of the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea are Ethiopia and Eritrean President��Isaias��Afwerki.





Image credit Yemane Gebremeskel, Minister of Information of the State of Eritrea via Twitter.

Despite the breathless headlines of the��rapprochement��between��Ethiopia and Eritrea, nothing substantial has come out from Eritrea, as��yet. Eritreans,��who have been endlessly waiting to hear��of��any policy change from their government,��are about to give up.

Since Eritrean officials never cared to give any real information on the agreement between the two countries, the only news is coming from Ethiopian media. Eritreans inside the country have had to��watch��Ethiopian TV channels to stay informed.��The��Eritrean diaspora is ceaselessly refreshing the Twitter handles of Ethiopian officials. The only time Eritrean leaders have communicated about the rapprochement was to inform residents to show up in public places to welcome state guests. While regular��direct flights��between the two countries have resumed, and normalization of inter-state relations progress at a swift pace, Eritreans are still held hostage and reduced to mere observes in their own affairs.

The first Ethiopian flight to Asmara carried many Ethiopian investors who came to explore the Eritrea’s business landscape. Eritreans are denied��this privilege.����Since 2003 import and export businesses have been banned in Eritrea. The subsequent targeting of Eritrean nationals with capital under different pretexts, have resulted in Eritrean investors steadily fleeing the country. The extremely��unfavorable��conditions��for businesses, coupled with��a��construction ban in May 2006, have pushed almost all Eritrean investors to relocate to South Sudan, Angola, Uganda and other��African countries.

No matter if some would like to return, Eritrean investors are not part of the rapprochement. Such uneven engagement will eventually lead to resentment and��a��sense of alienation among Eritreans���a perfect recipe for tense relations between the two��countries in the future.��The opening of borders will certainly benefits Eritreans, however thanks to the Eritrean government���s lack of communication, many are unprepared to even host a few guests, let alone the potential flood of Ethiopians who have been waiting to visit Eritrea for decades.

Most hotels and restaurants do not��have��basic amenities,��such as running water and other modest services, yet��they are about to be packed with Ethiopian visitors.

As many outside observers are overwhelmed by the headlines on global news networks, they are still not able to explore the reality��on��the ground.��The��first Ethiopian Airlines flight��to Eritrea��carried many international and Ethiopian journalists.��With their expectations��low, many were cheerfully sharing their adventures on social media. However, references to Asara’s art-deco architectural style and the country’s welcoming culture have dominated in coverage by��international media over the past few years. We are still waiting��to see��if the journalists��will��come up with deeper stories that delve beneath the cute art-deco surface.

For example, while thousands of followers of Pentecostal churches have been rotting in underground dungeons��since 2002, it has been widely reported, even by the Eritrean opposition media outlets, that 400 prisoners of faith, particularly followers of the banned Pentecostal church have been released��following��the peace deal. This was lauded as��a��sign of��an improving��Eritrean police state. Yet, as later confirmed they were only 35 and their release has��nothing to do��with the recent developments.��In an interview with��BBC Tigrinya, Eritrean��Minister��of��Information��Yemane��Gebremeskel,��even said he was not aware of the release, and��reiterated the old stand that the Eritrean government does not allow religions sponsored by outsiders.

Meanwhile, the information gap for reporting on the ground has been filled��by��rumors; some deliberately driven��by the intelligence agencies and others by self-appointed wishful thinkers.

Rumors have been floating around that there will be a mass release of political prisoners and journalists who have been held in custody��since 2001. It can’t be confirmed.��Other rumors have��created��a��media��uproar, such as the widely spread news that claim��Eritrean troops are��withdrawing from borders. This news was based on a��Facebook page��run by two random individuals who are not affiliated with any official office.��Pressed��to reveal their sources and motives on Twitter, their response was, ���the story was meant to be positive.�����The same Facebook page had also announced��that the most��infamous military prison,��Adi-Abieto,��had��also been closed��due to��the recent developments.

Reuters repeated similar��unconfirmed news claiming that the time period for Eritrean national military service has been returned to its regular 18��months. The news story was based on��information from��family members whose children are in the military and cited��President��Afwerki���s��recent speech in��Sawa. In the speech,��which��I��previously��cited for��its lack of content, the��President did not discuss the subject. When the minister of information was asked to comment he neither denied nor confirmed it.

The consequences of such unverified news have already��reverberated beyond the borders of the Eritrea. Israel is weighing the possibilities of��fouling Eritrean��asylum seekers.

President��Afwerki��has consolidated his unchecked rule by��institutionalizing��fear, and��limiting information. Eritrean top government officials mainly depend on town rumors��for information. As��Haile ���Durue�����Woldensae,��the former minister of foreign affairs��(incarcerated����since��September 2001)��related, even in times of emergency�����ministers did not have any information on what things were going on. So, they were going to anybody that could tell them what is happening, how��are things��going on.���

During all these recent developments, Afwerki��is applying his usual style of information blocking. As some sources have indicated, it��appears that��many ministers��did not have a clue��about the rapprochement until the president made the announcement on June 20th that Eritrea��would��send a delegation to Ethiopia.

Apart from his subordinates, who have been effectively reduced to docility,��the��majority of Eritreans, particularly those living inside the country, are very much aware that��Afwerki��will��only take actions if it secures his own interest. It��has not��taken��long��for the��euphoria of rapprochement to turn��to��anger and frustration. Yet, some hoped that the peace deal might benefit Eritreans by way of securing��Afwerki���s��self-interest.

So what possible changes might we in fact expect in Eritrea? Among the highly expected actions would be��the��re-shuffling��(or�����cleaning”) of��the��top echelons of the government.��Many also expect mass arrests of senior state officials. In exchange,��Afwerki��might release some political prisoners as��a sign of��change.��He��might��go so far as to��use Ethiopian forces to subjugate his own people,��as he did in��2013��when he��used��the��Tigray��People���s Democratic Movement��(TPDM) to conduct��military roundups��and arrests because��Eritreans did not comply��with his orders��to arrest their brothers and sisters. He also may try exert some influence inside of Ethiopia.

All things are possible as long as��Afwerki���s��self-interests are assured.