The Most Promising Players In The NBA Draft According To My Computer

We usually don’t release our CARMELO NBA projections until after the NBA draft. But this year, in an effort to procrastinate from other modelling-related tasks,1 I finished them a little early. We’ll publish the complete set of CARMELO projections later this month, but with the draft scheduled for Thursday night, I wanted to share the system’s take on the best NCAA prospects.

Our methodology for CARMELO is pretty much the same as last year, with only minor tweaks. It works by identifying statistically comparable players — for instance, John Wall is currently similar to Detroit Pistons Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas and to Deron Williams. For NBA veterans, we use a database of player statistics since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, and for rookies, we use a database of NCAA statistics since 2002, adjusted for pace and opponent strength, as provided to us by ESPN Stats & Information Group. The rookie projections also account for — indeed, heavily emphasize — where in the draft each player was selected. Because the 2018 draft hasn’t taken place yet, we can’t use that variable to evaluate this year’s prospects, so for now I’ve used scouting rankings for both current and historical players.2

As I said, the changes from last year’s model are pretty minor, but one of them is potentially relevant in the context of this year’s draft, which is heavy on big men, including traditional centers such as Arizona’s Deandre Ayton. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has found, it’s become easier in recent seasons for teams to find once-desirable big men on the waiver wire or available for the minimum salary; the former All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who didn’t play at all in the NBA last year, is one perfect example. After evaluating the performance of players on minimum salaries over the past four years, we now use position-based replacement levels,3 which reflect that it takes a little bit more for big men to generate surplus value in the NBA than it does for guards and wings.

One last important warning: This list does not include projections for European players (so no Luka Doncic) or for other players who did not play NCAA basketball for some reason. Also, since Michael Porter Jr. played in only three NCAA games as a result of injury, we don’t project him on the basis of his NCAA statistics.4

At any rate, here goes: The top prospects as projected by CARMELO, non-Doncic, non-Porter edition. Players are ranked by their projected wins above replacement over their first seven NBA seasons:

‘Stats + Scouts’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft

Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.

Player
Scout Rank
Age on 2/1/19
Pos.
WAR THRU 2025
Top Comps




1
Deandre Ayton
1
20.5
C
24.6
Jahlil Okafor, Greg Oden, Anthony Davis


2
Marvin Bagley III
5
19.9
C
19.0
Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love, Derrick Favors


3
Jaren Jackson Jr.
4
19.4
C
18.6
Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors, Noah Vonleh


4
Mohamed Bamba
3
20.7
C
15.8
Nerlens Noel, Ben Simmons, Michael Beasley


5
Wendell Carter Jr.
7
19.8
C
14.9
Noah Vonleh, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors


6
Trae Young
8
20.4
PG
14.3
Dennis Smith Jr., Brandon Knight, Mike Conley


7
Kevin Knox
9
19.5
PF
12.8
Tobias Harris, Thaddeus Young, Julius Randle


8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
10
20.6
SG
11.9
DeMar DeRozan, Jamal Murray, Alec Burks


9
Collin Sexton
11
20.1
PG
11.8
Tyus Jones, Dennis Smith Jr., Malik Monk


10
Zhaire Smith
16
19.7
SF
11.5
Malik Beasley, Xavier Henry, Justise Winslow


11
Mikal Bridges
14
22.4
SF
10.8
Jimmy Butler, Nik Stauskas, John Jenkins


12
Kevin Huerter
20
20.4
SG
9.8
Jeremy Lamb, Alec Burks, Gary Harris


13
Miles Bridges
15
20.9
PF
8.6
TJ Warren, Ryan Anderson, Bobby Portis


14
Robert Williams
12
21.3
C
8.3
Cole Aldrich, Bobby Portis, Marreese Speights


15
Lonnie Walker IV
13
20.1
SG
7.2
Jrue Holiday, Austin Rivers, Avery Bradley


16
Troy Brown
18
19.5
SG
7.1
James Young, Archie Goodwin, Austin Rivers


17
Josh Okogie
25
20.4
SG
6.8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams


18
Jerome Robinson
17
21.9
PG
6.2
R.J. Hunter, Dominique Jones, Allen Crabbe


19
Aaron Holiday
22
22.3
PG
5.2
Demetrius Jackson, Reggie Jackson, Jimmer Fredette


20
Jalen Brunson
35
22.4
PG
4.7
John Jenkins, Michael Frazier II, Ty Lawson


21
Donte DiVincenzo
26
22.0
PG
4.5
Willie Warren, Tyler Dorsey, Doron Lamb


22
Gary Trent Jr.
39
20.0
SG
4.3
Rashad Vaughn, James Young, Javaris Crittenton


23
De’Anthony Melton
24
20.7
SG
4.1
Javaris Crittenton, Eric Bledsoe, Zach LaVine


24
Jacob Evans
30
21.6
SF
3.6
Dillon Brooks, Tim Hardaway Jr., Gerald Henderson


25
Grayson Allen
27
23.3
SG
3.6
Jimmer Fredette, Denzel Valentine, Nolan Smith


26
Moritz Wagner
36
21.8
C
3.4
Derrick Brown, Thomas Bryant, Marreese Speights


27
Khyri Thomas
31
22.7
SG
3.2
Jodie Meeks, Wayne Ellington, L.J. Peak


28
Landry Shamet
49
21.9
PG
3.1
Tyler Dorsey, Michael Frazier II, John Jenkins


29
Shake Milton
40
22.3
SG
3.0
Olivier Hanlan, Tyler Harvey, Allen Crabbe


30
Melvin Frazier
32
22.4
SF
2.2
Tony Snell, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Crawford


31
Chimezie Metu
45
21.9
C
2.2
Richaun Holmes, Justin Harper, Drew Gordon


32
Rawle Alkins
48
21.3
SG
2.2
Travis Leslie, Jared Cunningham, Aaron Harrison


33
Keita Bates-Diop
29
23.0
PF
2.0
Justin Harper, Quincy Pondexter, Trevor Booker


34
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
59
21.6
SG
1.9
L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham, Andre Roberson


35
Bruce Brown Jr.
28
22.5
SG
1.9
Jamaal Franklin, Marcus Thornton, Will Barton


36
Malik Newman
47
21.9
SG
1.8
Jordan Crawford, Jared Cunningham, Edmond Sumner


37
Jevon Carter
34
23.4
PG
1.8
Demetri McCamey, Deonte Burton, Ben Uzoh


38
Omari Spellman
43
21.5
PF
1.7
Ben Bentil, Jarell Martin, Samardo Samuels


39
Devonte’ Graham
44
23.9
PG
1.6
Frank Mason III, Joe Young, Yogi Ferrell


40
Tony Carr
54
21.3
PG
1.6
Nick Calathes, Terrico White, Andrew Harrison


41
Ray Spalding
52
21.9
PF
1.6
Hollis Thompson, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ashley


42
Hamidou Diallo
37
20.5
SG
1.5
Avery Bradley, Josh Selby, Kobi Simmons


43
Chandler Hutchison
33
22.8
SF
1.5
Glen Rice Jr., C.J. Leslie, Jermaine Taylor


44
Vince Edwards
65
22.8
PF
1.3
Solomon Hill, Matt Howard, Jake Layman


45
Trevon Duval
53
20.5
PG
1.2
Cory Joseph, Dejounte Murray, Avery Bradley


46
Allonzo Trier
62
23.0
SG
1.2
Tyler Harvey, James Blackmon Jr., Khalif Wyatt


47
Keenan Evans
72
22.4
PG
1.1
Marcus Denmon, Derrick Marks, Rasheed Sulaimon


48
Bonzie Colson
68
23.1
PF
1.0
Perry Ellis, Branden Dawson, Matt Howard


49
Justin Jackson
41
22.0
PF
1.0
Ben Bentil, Vince Hunter, Tony Mitchell


50
Kevin Hervey
46
22.6
SF
1.0
Draymond Green, C.J. Leslie, Akil Mitchell


51
Brandon McCoy
64
20.6
C
0.7
Greg Smith, Kosta Koufos, Jordan Williams


52
Dakota Mathias
75
23.6
SG
0.7
Dez Wells, Thomas Walkup, Ron Baker


53
Yante Maten
88
22.5
PF
0.7
Brandon Costner, Rick Jackson, Marqus Blakely


54
Gary Clark
57
24.2
PF
0.6
Arsalan Kazemi, Melvin Ejim, Jaron Blossomgame


55
Kostas Antetokounmpo
58
20.7
SF
0.4
Chris Walker, Grant Jerrett, Derrick Jones Jr.


56
Devon Hall
51
23.6
SG
0.4
Jermaine Taylor, Lamar Patterson, MarShon Brooks


57
Alize Johnson
61
22.8
PF
0.4
Malcolm Thomas, Eric Griffin, Khem Birch


58
Kenrich Williams
63
24.2
PF
0.3
Jaron Blossomgame, Michael Gbinije, Kris Joseph


59
DJ Hogg
60
22.4
PF
0.3
DeAndre Daniels, Cameron Moore, J.P. Tokoto


60
Isaac Haas
73
23.3
C
0.3
Dexter Pittman, Justin Hamilton, Trevor Thompson


61
Jarred Vanderbilt
56
19.8
SF
0.3
Grant Jerrett, Jereme Richmond, Ioannis Papapetrou


62
Theo Pinson
70
23.2
SG
0.2
Durrell Summers, Jajuan Johnson, Peter Jok


63
Doral Moore
86
22.0
C
0.2
Dexter Pittman, Chinemelu Elonu, Josh Harrellson


64
Jaylen Barford
92
23.0
SG
0.2
Dwayne Bacon, James Blackmon Jr., Sonny Weems


65
George King
71
25.0
SF
0.1
Elgin Cook, Jamel Artis, Andy Rautins


66
MiKyle McIntosh
81
24.5
PF
-0.2
Herb Pope, Taylor Griffin, Robert Dozier



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One thing you see is that CARMELO is extremely deferential to the scout rankings — more so than other systems that use similar data, such as Pelton’s system or the Stats & Info system. Both CARMELO and the scouts have Ayton as the No. 1 pick, for example. The order of the big men listed just after Ayton is slightly different — CARMELO prefers Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. to Texas’s Mohamed Bamba — but these differences are minor. As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet.

With that said, there are a few differences. CARMELO puts a lot of emphasis on a player’s age; it’s relevant, for instance, that Jackson is more than a full year younger than fellow freshman Bamba. The counterpoint to this is that older players can sometimes help a team now, even if they have less upside. For instance, Mikal Bridges, who played three seasons at Villanova, is one of just three players who project to have a positive WAR in 2018-19. (The others are Ayton and Bamba; Doncic would probably also qualify if we projected him.) And Duke senior Grayson Allen has the fifth-best projection for 2018-19 even though he rates as just the 25th-best long-term prospect.

We can get a better sense for where CARMELO differs from the scouts by taking the scouting rankings out of the system and running “pure stats” projections instead. (Note that these projections still account for a player’s height, weight, position and age, in addition to his NCAA statistics.) Again, we would not recommend that NBA teams draft players on the basis of the list, but it helps to reveal how CARMELO “thinks”:

‘Pure stats’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft

Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.

Player
Scout Rank
Age on 2/1/19
Pos.
WAR THRU 2025
Top Comps




1
Marvin Bagley III
5
19.9
C
15.0
Anthony Davis, Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love


2
Zhaire Smith
16
19.7
SF
14.2
Justise Winslow, Malik Beasley, Malik Monk


3
Jaren Jackson Jr.
4
19.4
C
12.5
Diamond Stone, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marquese Chriss


4
Wendell Carter Jr.
7
19.8
C
12.3
Derrick Favors, Diamond Stone, Greg Oden


5
Deandre Ayton
1
20.5
C
11.6
Jahlil Okafor, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen


6
Kevin Huerter
20
20.4
SG
11.5
Alec Burks, Jeremy Lamb, Gary Harris


7
Kevin Knox
9
19.5
PF
11.5
James Young, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kevon Looney


8
Trae Young
8
20.4
PG
11.0
Dennis Smith Jr., Mike Conley, Brandon Knight


9
Collin Sexton
11
20.1
PG
11.0
Derrick Rose, De’Aaron Fox, Mike Conley


10
Gary Trent Jr.
39
20.0
SG
10.3
DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, Andrew Wiggins


11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
10
20.6
SG
9.8
D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, John Wall


12
Troy Brown
18
19.5
SG
9.6
Rashad Vaughn, James Young, Thaddeus Young


13
Josh Okogie
25
20.4
SG
9.3
Gary Harris, Marcus Smart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope


14
Miles Bridges
15
20.9
PF
7.6
Caleb Swanigan, Ivan Rabb, Gordon Hayward


15
Mohamed Bamba
3
20.7
C
7.3
Meyers Leonard, JJ Hickson, Lauri Markkanen


16
Landry Shamet
49
21.9
PG
7.2
Tyler Dorsey, Luke Kennard, Doron Lamb


17
Lonnie Walker IV
13
20.1
SG
6.9
Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook


18
Mikal Bridges
14
22.4
SF
6.7
Quincy Acy, Derrick Brown, John Jenkins


19
Jalen Brunson
35
22.4
PG
6.3
Ty Lawson, Demetrius Jackson, John Jenkins


20
De’Anthony Melton
24
20.7
SG
5.9
Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans


21
Robert Williams
12
21.3
C
5.9
Marreese Speights, Caleb Swanigan, Cole Aldrich


22
Moritz Wagner
36
21.8
C
5.5
Jakob Poeltl, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Brown


23
Brandon McCoy
64
20.6
C
5.5
Meyers Leonard, Brook Lopez, Kosta Koufos


24
Rawle Alkins
48
21.3
SG
5.3
Donovan Mitchell, Aaron Harrison, Elliot Williams


25
Donte DiVincenzo
26
22.0
PG
5.3
Tyler Dorsey, Jodie Meeks, Victor Oladipo


26
Trevon Duval
53
20.5
PG
5.2
Avery Bradley, Cory Joseph, Marquis Teague


27
Shake Milton
40
22.3
SG
5.0
Tyler Harvey, Olivier Hanlan, James Anderson


28
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
59
21.6
SG
4.9
L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham, Wayne Ellington


29
Tony Carr
54
21.3
PG
4.9
Darius Morris, Malcolm Lee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope


30
Jerome Robinson
17
21.9
PG
4.8
Armon Johnson, Allen Crabbe, R.J. Hunter


31
Aaron Holiday
22
22.3
PG
4.8
Demetrius Jackson, Stephen Curry, Isaiah Canaan


32
Jacob Evans
30
21.6
SF
4.6
Andre Roberson, L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham


33
Omari Spellman
43
21.5
PF
4.4
Anthony Bennett, Samardo Samuels, Ben Bentil


34
Chimezie Metu
45
21.9
C
4.4
Damian Jones, Richaun Holmes, Brandon Ashley


35
Jarred Vanderbilt
56
19.8
SF
4.2
Grant Jerrett, Jereme Richmond, Daequan Cook


36
Malik Newman
47
21.9
SG
4.2
Jordan Crawford, Jeff Teague, Jared Cunningham


37
Hamidou Diallo
37
20.5
SG
4.0
Kobi Simmons, Lance Stephenson, Avery Bradley


38
Khyri Thomas
31
22.7
SG
3.9
Khalif Wyatt, James Blackmon Jr., Jodie Meeks


39
Keenan Evans
72
22.4
PG
3.8
Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus Denmon, Derrick Marks


40
Ray Spalding
52
21.9
PF
3.8
Brandon Ashley, Marcus Morris, Ed Davis


41
Allonzo Trier
62
23.0
SG
3.6
James Blackmon Jr., Tyler Harvey, Khalif Wyatt


42
Doral Moore
86
22.0
C
3.5
Dexter Pittman, Byron Mullens, Mitch McGary


43
Vince Edwards
65
22.8
PF
3.4
Matt Howard, Solomon Hill, Trevor Booker


44
Kostas Antetokounmpo
58
20.7
SF
3.4
Chris Walker, Grant Jerrett, Skal Labissiere


45
Grayson Allen
27
23.3
SG
3.3
Buddy Hield, Pat Connaughton, Joe Harris


46
Yante Maten
88
22.5
PF
3.2
Rick Jackson, Brandon Costner, Joel Bolomboy


47
Bonzie Colson
68
23.1
PF
3.1
Matt Howard, Perry Ellis, Branden Dawson


48
Melvin Frazier
32
22.4
SF
2.9
Andre Roberson, K.J. McDaniels, Tony Snell


49
Dakota Mathias
75
23.6
SG
2.6
Dez Wells, Thomas Walkup, Marcus Denmon


50
Devonte’ Graham
44
23.9
PG
2.5
Kendall Williams, Aaron Craft, Yogi Ferrell


51
Justin Jackson
41
22.0
PF
2.4
Vince Hunter, Ben Bentil, Tony Mitchell


52
Bruce Brown Jr.
28
22.5
SG
2.4
Jamaal Franklin, Sonny Weems, Marcus Thornton


53
Jevon Carter
34
23.4
PG
2.1
Demetri McCamey, T.J. Williams, Keith Appling


54
Kevin Hervey
46
22.6
SF
2.0
Stanley Robinson, Rodney Williams, Draymond Green


55
Keita Bates-Diop
29
23.0
PF
2.0
Brandon Costner, Robert Carter Jr., Branden Dawson


56
Jaylen Barford
92
23.0
SG
2.0
Marcus Thornton, Jordan Crawford, Jodie Meeks


57
Chandler Hutchison
33
22.8
SF
1.9
Scotty Hopson, Landry Fields, Stanley Robinson


58
Alize Johnson
61
22.8
PF
1.7
Eric Griffin, Malcolm Thomas, Khem Birch


59
DJ Hogg
60
22.4
PF
1.6
Cameron Moore, John Henson, Joe Alexander


60
Gary Clark
57
24.2
PF
1.5
Arsalan Kazemi, Melvin Ejim, Elias Harris


61
Isaac Haas
73
23.3
C
1.4
Dexter Pittman, Brian Zoubek, Festus Ezeli


62
Theo Pinson
70
23.2
SG
1.3
Durrell Summers, Jajuan Johnson, Peter Jok


63
Kenrich Williams
63
24.2
PF
1.3
Jaron Blossomgame, Taj Gibson, Michael Gbinije


64
Devon Hall
51
23.6
SG
1.2
Peter Jok, Jermaine Taylor, Lamar Patterson


65
George King
71
25.0
SF
0.5
Jamel Artis, Elgin Cook, Gilbert Brown


66
MiKyle McIntosh
81
24.5
PF
0.2
Jackie Carmichael, Herb Pope, Lazar Hayward



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On a pure stats basis, Bagley rates as the top pick, somewhat ahead of Ayton. CARMELO sees the two players as being highly similar — they share many of the same comparables — but Bagley is half a year younger, and he posted his stats against tougher competition at Duke than Ayton did at Arizona. College statistics don’t do a good job of accounting for defense, and there are concerns about Bagley’s defense, but the same is true for Ayton. My point is not necessarily that teams should draft Bagley over Ayton — I’d defer to the scouts who say Ayton has more upside. But I do think it’s probably more of a crapshoot than most fans assume.

There’s a similar dynamic between the top point guards in the draft, Oklahoma’s Trae Young and Alabama’s Collin Sexton. The scouts have Young ranked slightly higher, but CARMELO sees them has very comparable players on the basis of their statistics. It’s true that Young scored more points per game than Sexton (27.4 versus 19.2), but that’s because the Sooners played at a faster pace, and Young played more minutes and used a larger share of his team’s possessions — all factors that aren’t particularly predictive of success at an NBA level.

CARMELO also sometimes like guys who played non-starring roles on good teams, such as Kentucky’s Kevin Knox and Duke’s Gary Trent Jr. These players don’t necessarily post hugely impressive raw statistics, in part because they have to share the ball with a lot of other talented players. But they look better when evaluated on an efficiency basis and adjusted for strength of competition.

Finally, there are a few true “computer picks” — guys who didn’t have great scouting pedigrees coming out of high school but who had impressive NCAA seasons. These include Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith and Maryland’s Kevin Huerter, both of whom are reportedly rising on NBA teams’ draft boards.