2018 March Madness Predictions

2018 March Madness PredictionsIn-game win probabilities and chances of advancing, updating live. | ESPN coverageMenWomenMarch 14 (Play-in)March 15 (Play-in)March 16 (1st Round)March 17 (1st Round)March 18 (2nd Round)March 19 (2nd Round)March 23 (Sweet 16)March 24 (Sweet 16)March 25 (Elite Eight)March 26 (Elite Eight)April 1 (Final Four)April 3 (Championship)

6:40 pm EDT | truTV
SCORE
WIN PROB






‘
M. St. Mary’s16
—
56%


‘
New Orleans16
—
44%






9:10 pm EDT | truTV
SCORE
WIN PROB






‘
Wake Forest11
—
52%


‘
Kansas State11
—
48%

Round-by-round probabilitiesBracketTableHover to see each team’s path to the championship.EASTMIDWESTWESTSOUTH1ST ROUND1ST ROUND2ND ROUND2ND ROUNDSWEET 16SWEET 16ELITE EIGHTELITE EIGHTFINAL FOURFINAL FOURCHAMPIONSHIPNew Orleans 16M. St. Mary’s 1656%Kansas State 11Wake Forest 1152%NC Central 16UC-Davis 1663%Providence 11USC 1158%17%CHANCE OFWINNINGTOURNAMENT21%38%56%Kansas 1NCCU/UCD 16Miami 8Michigan St. 9Iowa State 5Nevada 12Purdue 4Vermont 13Creighton 6Rhode Island 11Oregon 3Iona 14Michigan 7Okla. State 10Louisville 2Jax. State 1530%UNC 1TXSO 16Arkansas 8Seton Hall 9Minnesota 5Mid. Tenn. 12Butler 4Winthrop 1347%Cincinnati 6KSU/WAKE 11UCLA 3Kent St. 1468%Dayton 7Wichita St. 1097%Kentucky 2N. Kentucky 1527%46%63%1 Villanova16 UNO/MSM8 Wisconsin9 Virginia Tech5 Virginia12 UNC-Wilm.4 Florida13 E. Tenn. St.6 SMU11 PROV/USC3 Baylor14 NM State7 S. Carolina10 Marquette2 Duke15 Troy41%60%1 Gonzaga16 S. Dakota St.8 N’western9 Vanderbilt5 Notre Dame12 Princeton4 W. Virginia13 Bucknell6 Maryland11 Xavier3 Florida State14 FGCU7 St. Mary’s10 VCU2 Arizona15 N. DakotaForecastCurrentPre-tournamentMarch 14 (Play-in)March 15 (Play-in)March 16 (1st Round)March 17 (1st Round)March 18 (2nd Round)March 19 (2nd Round)March 23 (Sweet 16)March 24 (Sweet 16)March 25 (Elite Eight)March 26 (Elite Eight)April 1 (Final Four)

Originally published March 11. Download forecast data.

By Jay Boice and Nate Silver

COMMENTS

Get more FiveThirtyEight

Newsletter
Videos
Podcasts
Twitter
Facebook
GitHub
RSS


Contact
Jobs
Masthead
Privacy and Terms of Service
About Nielsen Measurement