Baseball Is Finally Realizing That The Save Is Dumb

Baseball’s trade deadline last week provided a referendum on how much value relief pitchers have in today’s game. And the results were fairly clear: Teams just don’t care about saves as much as they used to.

This season, we’ve been using our new relief pitching statistic, the goose egg, to track how bullpens are used. And the way relievers are deployed has, in fact, changed. Although it hasn’t been quite as dramatic as, say, the widespread adaptation of the defensive shift in baseball, there’s at least some evidence of teams using their best relief pitchers in smarter ways — using them in the highest-leverage situations, regardless of whether or not a save is on the line. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who has been the best relief pitcher in baseball this season, is one prominent example. He often enters games in situations that the goose egg rewards but the save does not — such as when the score is tied, or anytime before the ninth inning.1 (A goose egg is essentially a clutch, scoreless relief inning.)

But a series of deadline trades provided evidence on the diminished value that teams place on saves. Plenty of relief pitchers were traded, but teams were seemingly indifferent about whether the pitchers they’d acquired had accumulated high save totals or not. Take the Twins’ Brandon Kintzler, for example, who was picked up by the Washington Nationals for minor-league pitching prospect Tyler Watson and international bonus pool money. Kintzler was second in the American League with 28 saves, and the Nationals have struggled to close out games all season — so you might have expected them to give up a king’s ransom for him. Instead they gave up … Watson, who had been the Nationals’ 27th best prospect before the season and had a 4.35 ERA in Single-A at the time he was dealt.

Other pitchers with high save totals, such as the Padres’ Brandon Maurer’ and the Marlins’ A.J. Ramos, didn’t fetch high prices, either. The prospects the Mets gave up for Ramos — pitcher Merandy Gonzalez and outfielder Ricardo Cespedes — were rated No. 14 and No. 23 in their system by Baseball America before the year began. The Mets also traded their own interim closer, Addison Reed, to Boston, nabbing three prospects; but none of them ranked higher than No. 20 in the Red Sox system. It’s not that the teams are giving up nothing for saves, exactly. But we’re a long ways removed from the days of the (infamous) Heathcliff Slocumb trade, when even mediocre closers could bring an elite prospect or two in return.

And teams aren’t necessarily privileging the closer’s old role when he switches teams. Kintzler isn’t expected to close many games in Washington; instead, he’s the No. 2 or No. 3 option in the bullpen behind Sean Doolittle, who had just three saves for the A’s at the time he was acquired in July. Maurer will only be the third option in the Royals’ bullpen. Ramos will close out games for the Mets, but only because regular closer Jeurys Familia is hurt and Reed was traded.

If teams are looking to goose eggs for guidance instead of saves, the National League leaders are Jansen and the Brewers’ Corey Knebel, who have 33 goose eggs each. Cleveland’s Andrew Miller leads the AL with 31 goose eggs, but he’s now injured, which could allow Tampa Bay’s Alex Colome (30 goose eggs) or Seattle’s Edwin Diaz (29 goose eggs) to pass him.

Jansen has been by far the most effective reliever in baseball, as measured by goose wins above replacement (GWAR). He’s maintained a perfect record on the season with no broken eggs,2 our term for when a pitcher has an opportunity for a goose egg but allows an earned run instead, and 33 goose eggs — good for 4.8 GWAR. Miller leads the AL with 3.2 GWAR. A complete rundown of goose statistics follows in the table below.

Goose stats through Aug. 6, 2017

PITCHER▲▼


TEAM▲▼


GOOSE EGGS▲▼


BROKEN EGGS▲▼


MEHS▲▼


GWAR▲▼






Kenley Jansen
LAD
33
0
1
+4.8


Corey Knebel
MIL
33
6
2
+2.7


Felipe Rivero
PIT
31
3
2
+3.5


Andrew Miller
CLE
31
5
2
+3.2


Alex Colome
TB
30
6
3
+2.3


Edwin Diaz
SEA
29
5
2
+2.5


Brad Hand
SD
28
4
5
+2.6


Addison Reed
BOS/NYM
25
5
5
+1.8


Joakim Soria
KC
25
7
2
+1.3


Raisel Iglesias
CIN
24
1
0
+3.2


Trevor Rosenthal
STL
24
7
1
+0.9


Greg Holland
COL
23
3
0
+2.7


Craig Kimbrel
BOS
23
4
0
+2.2


Brad Brach
BAL
23
4
1
+2.1


Michael Lorenzen
CIN
23
4
1
+2.0


Kelvin Herrera
KC
23
5
2
+1.8


Jacob Barnes
MIL
23
7
3
+0.9


Fernando Rodney
ARI
22
4
3
+1.9


Archie Bradley
ARI
22
4
5
+1.9


Brandon Kintzler
MIN
22
4
4
+1.9


Justin Wilson
CHC/DET
22
5
1
+1.5


Roberto Osuna
TOR
22
7
1
+0.9


Tony Watson
LAD/PIT
22
7
4
+0.7


Seung-hwan Oh
STL
21
5
4
+1.2


Wade Davis
CHC
20
1
1
+2.6


Nick Vincent
SEA
20
2
5
+2.3


Ryan Tepera
TOR
20
3
0
+2.0


Hector Neris
PHI
20
5
3
+1.1


Pat Neshek
COL/PHI
19
2
5
+2.1


David Robertson
CHW/NYY
19
5
1
+1.0


Arodys Vizcaino
ATL
19
6
2
+0.6


Sam Dyson
SF/TEX
19
8
2
-0.1


Jim Johnson
ATL
19
8
3
-0.1


Tommy Hunter
TB
18
2
1
+2.0


Ryan Madson
OAK/WAS
18
3
1
+1.6


Dellin Betances
NYY
18
5
1
+1.0


Cody Allen
CLE
18
6
3
+0.7


Taylor Rogers
MIN
18
6
3
+0.5


Brandon Maurer
KC/SD
18
7
0
+0.1


Bryan Shaw
CLE
17
4
4
+1.3


Mike Minor
KC
17
4
3
+1.2


Hunter Strickland
SF
17
4
1
+1.0


Chris Devenski
HOU
17
8
5
-0.5


Joe Smith
TOR
16
1
1
+2.1


Anthony Swarzak
CHW/MIL
16
1
0
+2.0


Mychal Givens
BAL
16
3
3
+1.4


Matt Belisle
MIN
16
3
3
+1.3


Will Harris
HOU
16
3
0
+1.3


Matthew Bowman
STL
16
5
4
+0.5


Matt Barnes
BOS
16
6
3
+0.4


Matt Bush
TEX
16
6
2
+0.4


Bud Norris
LAA
16
7
1
-0.2


Santiago Casilla
OAK
16
7
2
-0.2


David Phelps
MIA/SEA
16
8
3
-0.6


Joaquin Benoit
PHI/PIT
16
10
0
-1.3


Alex Claudio
TEX
15
3
5
+1.3


Shane Greene
DET
15
3
4
+1.2


Blake Parker
LAA
15
3
1
+1.2


AJ Ramos
MIA
15
4
2
+0.7


Koji Uehara
CHC
15
5
3
+0.3


Carl Edwards
CHC
15
6
3
+0.0


Jose Ramirez
ATL
14
4
2
+0.6


Brett Cecil
STL
14
4
3
+0.6


Jerry Blevins
NYM
14
4
7
+0.6


Ryan Buchter
KC/SD
14
6
3
-0.2


Tommy Kahnle
CHW/NYY
14
7
1
-0.5


Aroldis Chapman
NYY
13
1
2
+1.7


Pedro Strop
CHC
13
1
3
+1.5


Mike Montgomery
CHC
13
2
1
+1.2


Enny Romero
WAS
13
4
6
+0.4


Kyle Barraclough
MIA
13
4
1
+0.4


Adam Ottavino
COL
13
7
3
-0.4


David Hernandez
ARI/LAA
12
1
3
+1.4


Ken Giles
HOU
12
3
3
+0.7


Yusmeiro Petit
LAA
11
1
2
+1.3


Sean Doolittle
OAK/WAS
11
2
5
+0.9


Wandy Peralta
CIN
11
3
1
+0.5


Derek Law
SF
11
3
1
+0.5


Pedro Baez
LAD
11
4
6
+0.1


Jorge De La Rosa
ARI
11
5
1
-0.1


Alex Wilson
DET
11
6
5
-0.5


Mike Dunn
COL
10
0
2
+1.6


Tyler Duffey
MIN
10
3
2
+0.4


James Pazos
SEA
10
3
4
+0.4


Jake McGee
COL
10
4
2
+0.2


Neftali Feliz
KC/MIL
10
5
0
-0.3


Juan Nicasio
PIT
10
6
8
-0.7


Blake Treinen
OAK/WAS
10
6
1
-0.7


Matt Albers
WAS
9
2
4
+0.6


Joe Biagini
TOR
9
3
2
+0.3


Darren O’Day
BAL
9
3
2
+0.3


Hector Rondon
CHC
9
3
1
+0.2


Heath Hembree
BOS
9
4
5
+0.0


Jared Hughes
MIL
9
4
1
-0.1


Mark Melancon
SF
9
4
0
-0.2


Liam Hendriks
OAK
9
5
1
-0.5


Peter Moylan
KC
8
0
3
+1.2


Zach Britton
BAL
8
0
0
+1.2


Marc Rzepczynski
SEA
8
1
6
+0.8


Kevin Siegrist
STL
8
1
2
+0.8


Koda Glover
WAS
8
2
2
+0.4


Chris Rusin
COL
8
3
3
+0.2


Keone Kela
TEX
8
3
2
+0.2


Adam Warren
NYY
8
3
1
+0.2


Danny Farquhar
TB
8
3
2
+0.1


Kirby Yates
LAA/SD
8
3
1
+0.1


Cory Gearrin
SF
8
3
1
+0.1


Tony Zych
SEA
8
4
3
-0.3


George Kontos
SF
8
6
3
-1.1


Tyler Clippard
CHW/NYY
8
9
7
-2.0


Erasmo Ramirez
TB
7
1
2
+0.7


Sam Freeman
ATL
7
1
2
+0.7


Phil Maton
SD
7
1
1
+0.7


Joe Kelly
BOS
7
2
4
+0.4


Jose Leclerc
TEX
7
2
3
+0.4


Deolis Guerra
LAA
7
2
0
+0.3


Jeanmar Gomez
PHI
7
2
1
+0.3


Josh Smoker
NYM
7
2
3
+0.3


Danny Barnes
TOR
7
4
2
-0.4


Jose Alvarado
TB
7
4
3
-0.4


Luis Garcia
PHI
7
4
2
-0.4


Hansel Robles
NYM
7
4
2
-0.5


Luke Gregerson
HOU
7
5
2
-0.8


Jonathan Holder
NYY
6
1
1
+0.6


Nick Wittgren
MIA
6
1
1
+0.5


Scott Oberg
COL
6
2
3
+0.3


Chasen Shreve
NYY
6
2
3
+0.2


T. J. McFarland
ARI
6
2
1
+0.2


Ian Krol
ATL
6
2
3
+0.2


Shawn Kelley
WAS
6
2
0
+0.1


Tony Barnette
TEX
6
3
0
-0.1


J. J. Hoover
ARI
6
3
2
-0.2


Cam Bedrosian
LAA
6
3
3
-0.2


Chase Whitley
TB
6
4
1
-0.6


Carlos Torres
MIL
6
4
3
-0.6


Daniel Hudson
PIT
6
4
4
-0.6


Steven Okert
SF
6
4
8
-0.6


Paul Sewald
NYM
6
4
2
-0.6


Ross Stripling
LAD
6
4
1
-0.6


Jumbo Diaz
TB
6
5
3
-0.9


Fernando Abad
BOS
5
0
1
+0.8


Randall Delgado
ARI
5
0
0
+0.8


Blaine Boyer
BOS
5
1
0
+0.4


Steve Cishek
SEA/TB
5
1
2
+0.4


Oliver Perez
WAS
5
1
4
+0.4


Brad Ziegler
MIA
5
1
2
+0.4


Ryan Dull
OAK
5
2
3
+0.0


Jacob Turner
WAS
5
2
0
+0.0


Joely Rodriguez
PHI
5
2
4
+0.0


Josh Edgin
NYM
5
2
5
+0.0


Junichi Tazawa
MIA
5
3
0
-0.4


Jose Alvarez
LAA
5
5
3
-1.1


Fernando Salas
NYM
5
5
4
-1.1


Hector Velazquez
BOS
4
0
0
+0.6


Logan Verrett
BAL
4
0
0
+0.6


Brandon Workman
BOS
4
1
0
+0.3


Richard Bleier
BAL
4
1
1
+0.3


Nate Jones
CHW
4
1
0
+0.2


Jeurys Familia
NYM
4
1
2
+0.2


Doug Fister
BOS
4
2
0
-0.1


Dominic Leone
TOR
4
2
6
-0.1


Ryan Pressly
MIN
4
2
1
-0.1


Bruce Rondon
DET
4
2
0
-0.1


Oliver Drake
MIL
4
2
1
-0.1


Tony Cingrani
CIN
4
2
3
-0.1


Luis Avilan
LAD
4
2
4
-0.2


Jason Grilli
TEX/TOR
4
3
3
-0.5


Jose Torres
SD
4
4
1
-0.9


Austin Pruitt
TB
3
0
0
+0.5


Austin Brice
CIN
3
0
0
+0.5


Craig Stammen
SD
3
0
1
+0.4


Bryan Morris
SF
3
0
0
+0.4


Justin Grimm
CHC
3
0
1
+0.4


Brian Duensing
CHC
3
0
0
+0.4


Alex Wood
LAD
3
0
1
+0.4


Donnie Hart
BAL
3
1
3
+0.1


Alec Asher
BAL
3
1
1
+0.1


Mike Bolsinger
TOR
3
1
0
+0.1


Trevor Hildenberger
MIN
3
1
0
+0.1


Kenyan Middleton
LAA
3
1
0
+0.1


Albert Suarez
SF
3
1
0
+0.1


Dustin McGowan
MIA
3
1
1
+0.1


Robby Scott
BOS
3
2
9
-0.2


Scott Alexander
KC
3
2
1
-0.3


Aaron Loup
TOR
3
2
7
-0.3


Drew Storen
CIN
3
2
3
-0.3


Jhan Marinez
MIL/PIT
3
2
0
-0.3


Rex Brothers
ATL
3
2
1
-0.3


Casey Fien
PHI/SEA
3
2
0
-0.3


Joe Blanton
WAS
3
2
0
-0.3


Sam Tuivailala
STL
3
2
0
-0.3


Josh Osich
SF
3
2
5
-0.3


Travis Wood
KC
3
3
1
-0.6


Dan Altavilla
SEA
3
3
1
-0.7


Sergio Romo
LAD/TB
3
3
0
-0.7


Brandon Morrow
LAD
3
3
0
-0.7


Josh Fields
LAD
3
4
2
-1.1


Francisco Rodriguez
DET
3
8
2
-2.5


Edubray Ramos
PHI
3
11
0
-3.6


Dan Otero
CLE
2
0
0
+0.3


Dario Alvarez
TEX
2
0
1
+0.3


Jake Junis
KC
2
0
0
+0.3


Jake Barrett
ARI
2
0
3
+0.3


Jake Petricka
CHW
2
0
2
+0.3


Zach Putnam
CHW
2
0
0
+0.3


Josh Hader
MIL
2
0
2
+0.3


Josh Smith
OAK
2
0
0
+0.3


Dovydas Neverauskas
PIT
2
0
0
+0.3


Adam Morgan
PHI
2
0
0
+0.3


Brock Stewart
LAD
2
0
0
+0.3


Jordan Lyles
COL
2
1
0
+0.0


Chad Qualls
COL
2
1
0
+0.0


Drew VerHagen
DET
2
1
0
-0.1


Kyle Ryan
DET
2
1
0
-0.1


Daniel Stumpf
DET
2
1
4
-0.1


Jason Motte
ATL
2
1
2
-0.1


Eric O’Flaherty
ATL
2
1
1
-0.1


Robert Gsellman
NYM
2
1
0
-0.1


Drew Steckenrider
MIA
2
1
0
-0.1


Robert Stephenson
CIN
2
2
0
-0.4


Matt Strahm
KC
2
3
1
-0.8


Brad Boxberger
TB
2
3
1
-0.8


Blake Wood
CIN
2
3
1
-0.8


Daniel Coulombe
OAK
2
3
4
-0.8


Wade LeBlanc
PIT
2
3
2
-0.8


Dan Jennings
CHW/TB
2
4
8
-1.2


Andrew Chafin
ARI
2
6
6
-1.9


Carlos Estevez
COL
1
0
0
+0.2


Boone Logan
CLE
1
0
4
+0.2


Robbie Ross
BOS
1
0
0
+0.2


Ben Taylor
BOS
1
0
1
+0.2


Tanner Scheppers
TEX
1
0
1
+0.2


Ben Heller
NYY
1
0
1
+0.2


Kevin McCarthy
KC
1
0
0
+0.2


Chris Young
KC
1
0
0
+0.2


Miguel Castro
BAL
1
0
1
+0.2


Yovani Gallardo
SEA
1
0
0
+0.2


Mike Morin
LAA
1
0
1
+0.2


Jean Machi
SEA
1
0
1
+0.2


Brooks Pounders
LAA
1
0
0
+0.2


Asher Wojciechowski
CIN
1
0
0
+0.2


A. J. Schugel
PIT
1
0
0
+0.1


Luke Jackson
ATL
1
0
0
+0.1


Brad Peacock
HOU
1
0
1
+0.1


Ty Blach
SF
1
0
1
+0.1


Miguel Socolovich
STL
1
0
1
+0.1


Zach McAllister
CLE
1
1
1
-0.2


Caleb Smith
NYY
1
1
0
-0.2


Tyler Wilson
BAL
1
1
1
-0.2


Jeff Beliveau
TOR
1
1
1
-0.2


Tom Wilhelmsen
ARI
1
1
2
-0.2


Justin Haley
MIN
1
1
0
-0.2


Warwick Saupold
DET
1
1
2
-0.2


Andrew Kittredge
TB
1
1
0
-0.2


Rob Scahill
MIL
1
1
0
-0.2


Frankie Montas
OAK
1
1
0
-0.2


Matt Grace
WAS
1
1
2
-0.2


Francis Martes
HOU
1
1
0
-0.2


Tony Sipp
HOU
1
1
0
-0.2


James Hoyt
HOU
1
1
0
-0.2


Michael Feliz
HOU
1
1
0
-0.2


Erik Goeddel
NYM
1
1
0
-0.2


Buddy Baumann
SD
1
1
1
-0.2


Grant Dayton
LAD
1
1
2
-0.2


Blaine Hardy
DET
1
2
1
-0.6


Emilio Pagan
SEA
1
2
0
-0.6


Aaron Bummer
CHW
1
2
0
-0.6


Wily Peralta
MIL
1
2
0
-0.6


John Axford
OAK
1
2
0
-0.6


Sammy Solis
WAS
1
2
0
-0.6


Jonathan Broxton
STL
1
2
0
-0.6


Kevin Quackenbush
SD
1
2
0
-0.6


Chris Hatcher
LAD
1
2
1
-0.6


Jeremy Jeffress
TEX
1
3
1
-0.9


Rafael Montero
NYM
1
3
1
-1.0


Lucas Harrell
TOR
0
0
1
+0.0


Hoby Milner
PHI
0
0
1
+0.0


Brent Suter
MIL
0
0
1
+0.0


Gabriel Ynoa
BAL
0
0
1
+0.0


Nick Goody
CLE
0
0
1
+0.0


Parker Bridwell
LAA
0
0
1
+0.0


John Brebbia
STL
0
0
1
+0.0


Chad Bell
DET
0
0
1
+0.0


Akeel Morris
ATL
0
0
1
+0.0


Jarlin Garcia
MIA
0
0
2
+0.0


Ernesto Frieri
TEX
0
1
0
-0.4


Bryan Mitchell
NYY
0
1
0
-0.4


Ronald Herrera
NYY
0
1
0
-0.4


Giovanny Gallegos
NYY
0
1
0
-0.4


Domingo German
NYY
0
1
0
-0.4


Al Alburquerque
KC
0
1
0
-0.4


Stefan Chrichton
BAL
0
1
0
-0.4


Vidal Nuno
BAL
0
1
0
-0.4


Casey Lawrence
TOR
0
1
0
-0.4


J. P. Howell
TOR
0
1
0
-0.4


Jayson Aquino
BAL
0
1
0
-0.4


Rubby De La Rosa
ARI
0
1
1
-0.4


Hector Santiago
MIN
0
1
0
-0.4


Buddy Boshers
MIN
0
1
0
-0.4


Craig Breslow
MIN
0
1
0
-0.4


Joe Jimenez
DET
0
1
0
-0.4


Xavier Cedeno
TB
0
1
3
-0.4


Jesse Chavez
LAA
0
1
0
-0.4


Diego Moreno
TB
0
1
0
-0.4


Chase De Jong
SEA
0
1
0
-0.4


Ryne Stanek
TB
0
1
3
-0.4


Chris Beck
CHW
0
1
2
-0.4


Greg Infante
CHW
0
1
1
-0.4


Simon Castro
OAK
0
1
0
-0.4


Antonio Bastardo
PIT
0
1
0
-0.4


Johnny Barbato
PIT
0
1
0
-0.4


Mark Leiter
PHI
0
1
0
-0.4


Ricardo Pinto
PHI
0
1
1
-0.4


Jandel Gustave
HOU
0
1
0
-0.4


Neil Ramirez
NYM
0
1
2
-0.4


Tyler Lyons
STL
0
1
2
-0.4


Tyler Pill
NYM
0
1
0
-0.4


Miguel Diaz
SD
0
1
0
-0.4


Adam Conley
MIA
0
1
0
-0.4


Chad Green
NYY
0
2
2
-0.7


Evan Scribner
SEA
0
2
0
-0.7


Adam Kolarek
TB
0
2
1
-0.7


J. C. Ramirez
LAA
0
2
0
-0.7


Josh Collmenter
ATL
0
2
0
-0.7


Francisco Liriano
HOU
0
2
0
-0.7


Ryan Garton
TB
0
3
0
-1.1

Source: Seamheads.com

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