Race Analysis: How Did Katie Ledecky Pace Her World Championship 400m?

The FINA World Swimming Championships began yesterday in Budapest.  During the weeklong event I’ll post analysis of  the pacing patterns of the three top swimmers, the medalists, in certain races.

Ever since I began coaching 45 years ago, one of the most instructive things I’ve done has been to study the pacing patterns of the world’s best swimmers. When I coached swimmers in all events I studied pacing patterns for all events. These days those I coach are most interested in the distance events. Thus, over the next several days, I’ll blog about the pacing patterns of the mens’ and womens’ 400m, 800m, and 1500m freestyles.

The mens’ and womens’ 400m freestyle was swum yesterday. Here are the final times and 200m splits of the medalists, as well as the world record holder

Womens 400m Freestyle

World Record

Katie Ledecky USA 3:56.46 (1:57.11—1:59.35)            +2.2 sec

World Championships Finals

1st Katie Ledecky USA 3:58.34 (1:57.74—2:00.60)   +2.8 sec

2nd Leah Smith USA 4:01.54 (1:59.55—2:00.99)      +1.4 sec

3rd Li Bingjie CHN 4:03.25 (2:00.42—2:02.83)       +2.4 sec

 

Mens 400m Freestyle

World Record

Paul Biedermann GER  3:40.07 (1:51.02—1:49.05)   -2 sec.

World Championships Finals

1st Sun Yang CHN 3:51.48 (1:50.87—1:50.61)             -0.2 sec.

2nd Mack Horton AUS 3:43.85 (1:51.83—1:52.02)     +0.2 sec

3rd Gabriele Detti ITA 3:43.93 (1:52.31—1:51.62)       -0.6 sec

The interesting pattern here is that the men mostly swam negative splits—i.e. swam the second half of the race faster, while the women swam positive splits, averaging about 2 second slower on the second 200 than on the first.

These splits are all excellent. Very few swimmers can swim the 2nd 200 of a 400 within 3 seconds of the first 200. However historically—dating back 40 years or more—elite swimmers’ pacing patterns were more like the mens’ pacing was yesterday, even split to swimming the 2nd 200 a fraction of a second faster than the 1st 200. This has prevailed because it delays a buildup of lactic acid in the muscles until very late in the race.

Why are the women swimming atypically faster in the first half of the 400m now? My best guess is that it’s because Katie Ledecky is such a dominant swimmer and goes out faster than anyone else is capable of. I believe the other women are pulled along, trying not to be left impossibly far behind.

What’s your guess?

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