How Much Uncertainty Is Left About The Election?

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FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver and politics editor Micah Cohen talk about how much we still don’t know about the state of the presidential race in the latest installment of “Model Talk” from our Elections podcast. Hillary Clinton is likely to win, but there’s still a lot we don’t know. In Utah, for example, independent candidate Evan McMullin’s chances of winning have risen to 14 percent, according to our polls-only model (and 25 percent in our nowcast). Nate also answers listener questions about how the forecast model works, including who actually enters new polls.

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