Peak Supermajors 2Q2016 Results
Overview
Between 1999 and 2014 the liquid oil production rate for the supermajor oil and gas companies was on a steady decline. Between Q2-2014 to Q1-2016 this trend reversed, with liquids production increasing by over a million barrels per day. These increase in production came on the heels of ever-increasing capital investment, which peaked out in Q4-2013. Since this peak, quarterly supermajor capital investment has dropped by nearly 60%. With less capital invested each quarter it is likely that the total supermajor oil production will return to its long-term downward trend.
Indeed this past quarter may have shown the beginning of the reversal. Supermajor liquids production declined by 7% quarter-over-quarter and increased by less than 1% year-over-year from Q2-2015 to Q2-2016.
Recent Supermajor Liquids Production
Liquids Production
The supermajors’ liquids production rate for Q2-2016 was 8,931,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 52,802 barrels per day. Overall production peaked at 30,554,482 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajors liquids production rate has fallen by 70.8%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.8%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2034. The more recent peak occurred at 11,135,767 barrels per day in Q3-1999. Since reaching the second peak, Supermajors liquids production rate has fallen by 19.8%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 1.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2084.
Supermajor Oil Production
Gas Production
The supermajors’ natural gas production rate for Q2-2016 was 38,484,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 224,747,253 cubic feet per day. Overall production peaked at 47,339,390,527 cubic feet per day in Q1-2010. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajors natural gas production rate has fallen by 18.7%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 3.0%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2043.
Supermajor Gas Production
Capex
The supermajors’ capex spend for Q2-2016 was $25,326,000,000. Year-over-year, capex spending declined by $9,221,000,000. Overall capex spending peaked at $60,346,622,300 in Q4-2013. Since reaching this peak, supermajors capex spending has fallen by 58.0%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 25.1%.
Supermajor Capex
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