Will Martin's Blog

National Park Visits vs Oil Price

There was an interesting article this week in the New York Times about overcrowding at National Parks. Our family visited Zion National Park this summer (where almost all of the photos are from in this article) and I can certainly agree that parks like Zion are experiencing crushing numbers of visitors. Hiking Angel’s Landing was like being stuck in bumper-to-bumper freeway traffic.

I pulled the data from the National Park Service and was surprised to see that park visits per capita actually peaked in 1986. Also very interestingly (since we hiked the Narrows with a permit) was that backcountry hiking on a per-capita basis continues to fall. The massive increase in park visits between the end of World War II and the 1970’s oil crisis was driven by an equally massive increase in global per-capita oil production. As driving became cheaper, more people drove to national parks.

Visits Per Capita Peaked in 1986. Backcountry hiking per capita continues to fall.

When you look at the year-over-year change in national park visits per capita and compare it against the year-over-year change in real oil prices, you see that in years when the oil price falls, more people visits parks and vice versa. Cheap oil = cheap vacations. Peak oil = peak vacations?

National Park visits are correlated to changes in the real oil price. Data 1980-2016.

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Buckminster Fuller Comic

Stuart McMillen, an Australian comic artist, recently released a new comic about Buckminster Fuller’s idea that we all have thousands of “energy slaves” working for  us in the form of finite fossil fuels. I particularly enjoyed these two slides which show how we are deluding ourselves into thinking that our unsustainable lifestyle, fueled by a one-shot expenditure of millions of years of stored sunlight is somehow “normal”:

It’s interesting that Buckminster Fuller calculated that the average person working full time could generate the equivalent of 14 liters (3.7 gallons) of gasoline per year. As I showed in my post last week, global oil production is about 4.5 barrels per capita per year (715 liters). It’s like there are 50 energy slave for every person on earth (and that’s just oil and doesn’t include gas and coal). But then of course a small fraction of the people in the world have thousands of energy slaves while the vast number of people have far less than 1 energy slave. When you consider that we have probably reached peak net oil per capital (after accounting for declining EROEI), we’ll all have fewer energy slaves going forward, forcing us into a more sustainable lifestyle.

Check out the comic here:

Energy Slaves

 

Also, prior to this comic, Stuart McMillen also drew a fantastic comic on peak oil, which you should check out here:

Peak Oil

 

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Supermajor Oil and Gas Production and CAPEX for Q1 2017

The supermajor oil and gas companies reached peak oil in 1973. This was a “political peak” caused by oil reserve nationalizations.

They reached a second peak in 1998 and oil production has declined by about 2 million barrels per day between the companies.

The companies reached peak gas in 2010.

After reaching peak oil and peak gas the companies ramped up capital spending, ultimately hitting a peak of capital spending of over $60 billion per quarter in 2013. Capital spending has crashed since 2013, reaching levels not seen for over two decades.

Meanwhile global oil production continues to grow, approaching the psychologically significant value of 100 million barrels of oil per day.

However on a per-capita basis global oil production peaked in 1979 and has been on a plateau since the 1980’s. If you adjusted peak oil per capita for the declining net energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) we would have reached a permanent peak of per capita oil production in the 1970s.

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Supermajor Oil and Gas Production and CAPEX for Q4 2016

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The Sustainability Checklist

Moving towards sustainability means moving towards a world that “meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Unfortunately this is a lot easier said than done and the individual actions needed to move towards sustainability often cost more and/or require significant behavioral change. As I’ve read books about sustainability over the past few years I’ve put together this checklist of concrete actions individuals can take. I certainly don’t do all of these things myself (and personally find many of them not worth the time or money), but the checklist has helped me focus on some actions which to me are worth the tradeoffs. Hopefully this checklist will help others understand their options and make changes in their lives so we can all transition towards sustainability. I have color-coded the list to show which actions require behavioral changes or time costs, which require financial costs, and which require both:




Behavioral change or time cost only (financial cost is negligible, but potentially takes more time and effort)
Behavioral change or time cost  along with a financial cost (sustainability takes more money, time, and/or effort)
Financial cost only (time and effort is negligible but financial cost is high)

Household Audit

Start this process by calculating your household carbon footprint to understand your biggest impacts

The best carbon footprint calculator I’ve found is UC Berkeley’s CoolClimate Calculator
Another good one is the GreenPointRated Green Home Calculator


For a more accurate assessment, hire a professional to do an energy audit of your home




Location, Location, Location
The decision of where to live has arguably the largest impact of any decision on how sustainable your lifestyle is. The population density of your location determines who much energy you need to expend to travel to work and to run daily errands. The harshness of the climate you live in determines how much energy you need to expend to remain comfortable. The resilience of your location to climate change and peak oil will determine how livable your location remains in the future.

[image error]Live in a moderate climate that doesn’t require constant heating and cooling of your house. An ideal climate would allow you to be comfortable by simply opening or closing a window. Find out which areas have the lowest average carbon footprint with UC Berkeley’s CoolClimate Map. For the San Francisco Bay Area, a far more detailed map is available.
In a location that is resistant to the effects of climate change – a location that won’t be swamped by rising sea levels or floods. A location with abundant fresh water. A location that won’t require ever-increasing amounts of air conditioning to remain comfortable during rising temperatures from global warming.
Live in a dense city with ready access to friends, family and leisure activities that you can access by walking, biking and public transportation. In general, where you live matters more than any other factor in lowering your energy use. The sustainability of urban vs rural living is hotly debated. While some peak oil writers, back-to-the-land proponents and “doomsday peppers” advise moving to a rural community, for the data shows that under our current system the average city-dwelling household uses significantly less of energy of every type (electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, kerosene, LPG and wood) than suburban, rural or small town households. For example, people living in Manhattan have the lowest per-capital energy consumption of any Americans.
[image error]Live in an apartment building (ideally a LEED certified building) instead of a detached single-family home. Like the urban-vs-rural debate, this finding too is hotly contested, with opposition to “Agenda 21” efforts to force us into “stack and pack” housing – but the data clearly shows that because most residential energy goes into space heating and cooling, multifamily buildings are more energy efficient because they share walls between units.
[image error]Downsize your home – live in the smallest square footage you can tolerate – check out the “tiny house movement” for ideas on how to live comfortably in a smaller home.
Live in a walkable neighborhood where most of your daily errands can be accomplished by walking or biking – visit walkscore.com to find a walkable neighborhood
[image error]If you can live car-free, do so – instead of owning a car, walk, bike and take public transit. When you need a car, use car sharing services (Turo, Getaround), car rental services (Zipcar, Car2Go) and taxi services (Uber, Lyft, Arcade City). Living without a car eliminates the need for parking and makes it easier to live in a denser walkable neighborhood.
[image error]Simplify your life – declutter your home – eliminate possessions – embrace minimalism – when you have less stuff, you can be comfortable in a smaller home which will make it more affordable to live in a more walkable urban neighborhood.

 
Commuting to Work

[image error]Work from home if you can (telecommute)
[image error]Walk to work if you can’t work from home
[image error]Bike to work if you can’t walk
[image error]Take public transit to work if you can’t bike
[image error]Carpool to work if you can’t take public transit (Use Casual Carpool if you’re in the Bay Area or Carma elsewhere – or just ask your coworkers)
[image error]If you can’t live car-free, buy an electric car and charge it using rooftop solar panels
[image error]If you can’t afford an electric car, buy a plug-in hybrid or biodiesel car (don’t buy an E85 car – corn ethanol is net energy negative)
[image error]If you can’t afford a plug-in hybrid or a biodiesel car, buy the most fuel-efficient car you can (like a regular hybrid) – look at fuelly.com and fueleconomy.gov
[image error]Hypermile your car – pump tires to maximum recommended PSI, remove weight from the car, remove aerodynamic drag from the car (roof racks, etc.), cruise at the optimum speed (~55 mph), shift up to the top gear as early as you can, drive in a way that you almost ever need to brake, draft on the highway
[image error]Measure your fuel consumption – If your car doesn’t have a fuel economy gauge, buy one – like ScanGaugeE or Automatic – and start altering your behaviors to maximize fuel efficiency
[image error]Don’t wash your car – but if you do wash your car, don’t wash it yourself, take it to a “closed loop” car wash that recycles their water
[image error]Bring your lunch in a reusable stainless steel food container

 
Vacations

[image error]Take local vacations (like to a nearby National Park) that you can drive to (ideally in your electric car) to instead of flying to far-away vacation destinations
[image error]Travel by train instead of flying (trains are more energy efficient per passenger mile, but more importantly they can be electrified and run on renewable energy)
[image error]Travel by sailboat (uses almost no fuel at all)
[image error]Travel by cargo freighter (http://wikitravel.org/en/Freighter_travel)
[image error]Travel by ridesharing (virtual hitchhiking) (Zimrides.com, blablacar.com)
[image error]Buy carbon offsets for your air travel – terrapass.com

 
Food

[image error]Buy local food – join a CSA and buy from your local farmers market
[image error]Plant a food garden

[image error]Convert your lawn to an edible garden
[image error] Plant medicinal herbs
[image error] Plant perennial foods that don’t require annual replanting
[image error]Start a compost bin
[image error] Raise food animals like chickens or ducks
[image error] Become a beekeeper and build a beehive
[image error] Plant barley and hops and brew your own beer
[image error] Learn how to pickle vegetables


[image error]Buy food that is local (or fair trade if it doesn’t grow locally) and organic
[image error]Coffee

[image error]Buy coffee that is shade grown, fair trade and organic
[image error]Lug a mug – Don’t buy coffee in disposable cups – bring your own stainless steel coffee mug (Klean Kanteen) if you’re traveling and use a ceramic mug if you’re not traveling
[image error]Avoid single-use coffee makers (especially those that do not have recyclable pods – like Keurig machines)
[image error]Drink your coffee black – it requires fewer inputs and it’s healthier
[image error]Replace your disposable paper filters with a reusable gold filter (pays for itself in a few months)
[image error]Compost your used coffee grounds (put them straight into your garden – citrus trees and berry bushes love acidic coffee grounds)


[image error]Buy eggs that are cage free, free range, local and organic
[image error]Buy milk that is hormone free (rBST/rBGH free), antibiotic free, local and organic
[image error]Avoid high-fructose corn syrup
[image error] Eat less meat – if you eat a typical American’s diet, you burn more fossil fuels walking than a vegetarian does driving a 35 MPG car (because natural gas and oil is used produce the fertilizer and pesticides needed to grow the grain to feed the animals, from the methane emissions from the animals themselves, and from the deforestation needed to produce an ever increasing amount of meat each year)

[image error]Being a vegetarian is far more sustainable, but if you’re going to eat meat purchase higher-quality locally-grown organic meat
[image error]Buy a whole animal – the best way to ensure its quality is to meet your meat (so you can observe its living conditions) – purchase an entire animal directly from a farmer (known as a heard share), have it butchered and share it with friends


[image error]Don’t buy overfished seafood – visit seafoodwatch.org for a list of what to avoid
[image error]Eat more meals at home – restaurant meals may waste more food than home cooked meals
[image error]Never buy bottled water – use reusable stainless steel water bottle (Klean Kanteen) (avoid reusable plastic water bottles – they leach endocrine disruptors)
[image error]Cook using natural cookware (like cast iron) instead of Teflon-coated cookware
[image error]Compost your food scraps
[image error]Simplify your possessions – inventory all of your possessions, decide what items you can do without and donate them
[image error]For grilling, sustainable charcoal (like coconut shell charcoal) is better than of chemical-doped charcoal (like MatchLight charcoal), while propane is better than any charcoal, and a  solar ovens are better any of those

 
Water

[image error]Things renters can do

[image error]Take shorter showers – use a shower timer
[image error]Turn off the water while you’re brushing your teeth or shaving
[image error]If it’s yellow, let it mellow


[image error] Things homeowners can do

[image error]Perform a water audit on your home to find leaks and inefficiencies
[image error]Fix any leaks in your faucets and shower heads
[image error]Install rain-catchment barrels to save the water that comes off your roof
[image error] Install drip irrigation for your edible garden
[image error]Install low-flow shower heads and sink aerators
[image error]Install a hot water recirculation pump or a “ ladybug ” hot water stopper to avoid waste while waiting for the shower to heat up
[image error]Install a graywater recycling system

[image error]Start by installing a toilet-tank sink (like SinkPositive)


[image error]Install a double-flush toilet with two different flush volumes
[image error]Reduce “virtual water” consumption


[image error]Eat less meat


[image error]Read books on an e-reader instead of paperback

[image error]Buy a sodastream instead of buying bottled soda


[image error]Eliminate your grass lawn and replace it with xeriscaping  and/or an edible garden (greatly reduces water usage and eliminates need for gasoline-powered mowers and trimmers and fossil-fuel based pesticides and herbicides)
[image error]Add mulch to your garden to increase water retention



 
Home Electricity and Natural Gas Use

[image error]Things renters can do

[image error]Electronics

[image error]Hook up electronics you use intermittently (like your TV or Stereo) to “smart” power strips that eliminates standby power – like the Belkin Conserve
[image error]Adjust your computer settings so it powers down when not in use
[image error]Unplug all AC/DC power adapters when not in your (eg. unplug your cell phone charger when you’re done charging it!)
[image error]Buy energy efficient electronics (eg. compare the electricity usage of TVs before you buy a new one)


[image error]Lighting

[image error]Alway turn off the lights when you leave a room
[image error]Replace every incandescent light bulb in your house with LED lightbulbs (which are better than CFL bulbs) starting with the most used bulbs first


[image error]Refrigerator

[image error]Dust off the refrigerator coils to keep it running efficiently
[image error]Set refrigerator temperature to 35°-38°F
[image error]Set freezer temperature to 0° F
[image error]Quickly get what you need, don’t leave the refrigerator door open for long


[image error]Dishwasher

[image error]Program it to run at off-peak hours (usually midnight to 6am)


[image error]Washing Machine

[image error]Always run a full load of wash
[image error]Wash your clothes in cold water – 90% of the energy use of a washing machine comes from warming up water


[image error] Program it to run at off-peak hours (usually midnight to 6am)


[image error]Clothes Dryer

[image error]Clean the lint trap on your dryer (which will also lower the chance of fire
[image error]Program your dryer to run at off-peak hours (usually midnight to 6am)
[image error]Hang your clothes to dry on a clothesline instead of using the dryer – 81% of the total energy use for household laundry goes to clothes dryers




[image error]Heating and Cooling

[image error]Reduce the area that needs to be heated or cooled in your home

[image error]Keep your closet doors closed (So they aren’t being heated and cooled)
[image error]Close doors and close air vents in any rooms you don’t use frequently (like a guest room)


[image error]Open a window to cool your home instead of running an air conditioner
[image error]Use fans to cool your home instead of running the air conditioner
[image error]Enter and exit quickly if your heater or air conditioner is running – don’t leave the front door open any long than you need to




[image error]Things homeowners can do (in addition to all of the things renters can do)

[image error]Get a professional home energy audit and implement their recommendations
[image error]Lighting

[image error]Install smart switches (motion sensor, timer or wifi enabled) to automatically turn off lights (and allow you to make sure all of your lights are off when you’re out of the house)
[image error]Install skylights or solar tubes to bring daylight in
[image error]Install a heliostat outside to reflect daylight into your home


[image error]Refrigerator

[image error]Make sure your refrigerator is in a cool, shaded place
[image error]Buy an energy efficient refrigerator


[image error]Dishwasher

[image error]Buy an energy efficient dishwasher


[image error]Washing Machine

[image error]Buy an energy efficient washing machine


[image error]Clothes Dryer

[image error]Buy an energy efficient clothes dryer


[image error]Hot Water Heater

[image error]Turn down the heat on the hot water heater to 120ºF
[image error] Turn the thermostat to “vacation mode” when you go on vacation
[image error]Replace your old hot water heater with a super-efficient electric heat pump hot water heater, like the GE GeoSpring heater (Gas hot water heaters uses 130 watts worth of natural gas continuously just for the pilot light! Electric hot water heaters also allow you to supply your own renewable electrons with rooftop solar.)

[image error]Even better – install a solar hot water heater (if your homeowner insurance allows you to)
[image error]If you have to use gas, use a super efficient one or a tankless hot water heater




Buy a smart thermostat – like the Nest Thermostat – and optimize the settings to save energy
Replace the air filter on your HVAC system regularly
Optimize heat transfer due to infiltratioFind air leaks using a blower door test and an infrared camera

[image error] Seal air leaks in your ducts, windows, doors and fireplace (if you don’t use your fireplace) using caulk, weather stripping and a fireplace flue plug
[image error]In extreme climates, install double-door “airlock” entryway stop air exchange when you go in and out of the house
[image error]In locations that are hot during the day but cool at night, install a whole house fan and install window screens so you can quickly move outside air inside


[image error]Reduce heat transfer due to conduction

[image error]Improve the insulation of your walls and attic
[image error]Replace your windows with higher efficiency triple-glazed windows
[image error] Install insulating blinds to further reduce window heat loss


Optimize heat transfer through radiation

[image error]I cold climates, maximize passive solar thermal gain by installing southward facing windows with high R-values (heat going out) and low U-values (heat coming in)
[image error]In locations that are cold in the winter and hot in the summer, install passive solar window awnings that allow the sun to warm your house in the winter and block the sun in the summer
[image error]Strategically plant deciduous trees on the south and west side of your house – in the summer they will shade your house from the hot sun and in the winter, when their leaves fall off, they will allow warming light into the house
[image error]In hot climates, install a white roof and install a radiant barrier to reflect heat (these work better than an attic ventilator)
Make sure your attic is well ventilated


[image error]Optimize heat transfer due to convection

[image error]Replace your natural gas or heating oil furnace with an electric air-source heat pump system (which can be powered by rooftop solar)[image error]


Replace your gas stove an oven with an electric stove and oven (which can be powered by rooftop solar)[image error]


Renewable Power Generation

[image error]Once you have reduced your energy consumption as much as possible (by doing as many of the things above as possible), install solar photovolteic panels on your roof or install a micro wind turbine






House Materials

[image error]Only buy low VOC (volatile organic compound) products – paint, etc.
[image error]Test your home to make sure it is free of lead paint, asbestos and mold
[image error]Avoid synthetic carpeting – install hardwood, natural linoleum or cork flooring instead
[image error]Buy sustainability-made “buy it for life” furniture – Don’t buy cheap furniture made with plywood or pressed wood – it can off-gas formaldehyde and can break easily
[image error]Buy sustainable bedding – using the same criteria as sustainable clothing – organic cotton, sustainably made, etc.

 
Business (if you own or manage a business)

Design your product more sustainably

[image error]Practice “cradle-to-cradle design” – design the product from 100% reused, recycled and/or natural materials and design it to be 100% recyclable, upcycleable or compostable

[image error]Reused materials – can you reuse existing materials instead of purchasing new materials? (eg. if you make cabinets, instead of buying new handles you could reuse handles from a salvage store like Urban Ore)
[image error]Recycled materials – for components that cant be made with reused materials, use 100% recycled materials that can be 100% recycled at their end-of-life, like aluminum
[image error]Natural materials – for components that cant be made with reused or recycled materials, use natural, sustainably-produced materials that can be composted at the end of their life (eg. bamboo, bioplastics)
[image error]Choose materials that have no human health impacts (eg. no off-gassing of VOCs)


[image error]Design your products to last a lifetime –  design them to be repairable and upgradeable instead of disposable (the opposite of planned obsolescence)


[image error]Manufacture your product more sustainably

[image error]Run your factory on renewable energy (buy renewable energy credits if you can’t install renewable generation on site)
[image error]Design your manufacturing process to minimize waste and to recycle all manufacturing waste
[image error]Buy raw materials from suppliers who focus on sustainability


[image error]Deliver your product more sustainably

[image error]Design your product to be shipped with minimal or no packaging
[image error]Use sustainable packaging materials (biodegradable – (no Styrofoam, no plastic bubble wrap, no Styrofoam packaging peanuts)
[image error]Focus on online retail over bricks-and-mortar stores (selling products online and shipping them to your customers house directly uses less far less energy than the customer driving a car to and from a store)


[image error]Make your office more sustainable

[image error]Locate your offices in a dense city where employees can get to work by walking, biking and public transportation
[image error]Allow employees to telecommute
[image error]Move to a LEED-certified office building (which has an extensive checklist of sustainable practices like installing bike racks, waterless urinals, etc.)
[image error]Get a professional energy audit and improve the energy efficiency of your office



 
Clothing

[image error]Avoid “Planned Obsolescence” in products – Consult the “Buy it For Life” Reddit before buying new things
[image error]Avoid “Fast Fashion” brands (Zara, H&M, Gap) who make cheap clothes that wear out quickly
[image error]Buy clothing from sustainable brands – Consult Project Just for a list of sustainable brands (Patagonia, Tom’s, etc.)
[image error]Buy clothing made of sustainable materials – hemp, organic cotton, merino wool, etc. (avoid leather)
[image error]Use environmentally-friendly clothing detergent designed for cold water washing (Method, Borax)
[image error]Go to a Green Dry Cleaner that uses Supercritical CO2 instead of PERC (perchloroethylene)
[image error]Turn old clothes into rags instead of using paper towels



Shaving

[image error]Stop buying non-recyclable disposable razors – Use a Double Edge Safety Razor or a Straight Razor and recycle the blades
[image error]Shave with sustainably-made solid soap and a brush or use shaving oil instead of aerosol shaving cream
[image error]Don’t shave in the shower – shave at the sink with a bowl (so you don’t run the water)
[image error]Grow a beard instead of shaving


Beauty Products

[image error]Never buy bath products with plastic “microbeads“
[image error]Deodorant – use stick deodorant instead of aerosol
[image error]Soap – buy natural soaps (Dr. Bronners, Tom’s, Meyer’s, etc)
[image error]Shampoo – buy sustainable shampoo (O’Right Tea Tree Shampoo)
[image error]Use Organic Cosmetics
[image error]Use Organic Sunscreen

 
House Cleaning

[image error]Buy environmentally-friendly cleaning products (Method, Borax)
[image error]Avoid antibacterial soap – it leads to antimicrobial resistant “superbugs”
[image error]Don’t use disposable cleaning products
[image error]Use rags instead of paper towels
[image error]Use an actual mop instead of a swiffer


 

Consumer Products

[image error]Reduce your purchases of new products

[image error]Live a simpler life with fewer possessions

[image error]Check our the following Reddits for inspiration: Anticonsumption, declutter, lowimpactlifestyle, minimalism, simpleliving




[image error]Reuse and repair products before buying new ones

[image error]Learn handyman skills and sowing skills to repair things around the house
[image error]Donate and buy clothes, furniture at consignment stores (eg. goodwill, salvation army, value village)
[image error] Buy home materials at a salvage store (Eg. Urban Ore, Omega Salvage, East Bay Depot for Creative Reuse)


[image error]Recycle and Compost everything you can

[image error]Use industrial compost if your city offers it
[image error]Create a compost pile in your garden for food scraps


[image error]Buy products that use less packaging
Buy Local

[image error]If you can walk or bike to a store, buy locally
[image error]Pay with cash or local currencies (like Ithaca Hours or Bay Bucks) instead of a credit card – the extra “friction” required to pay with cash had been scientifically shown to reduce spending amounts by making people more mindful of their spending habits


[image error]Buying Online

[image error]If you can’t walk or bike to buy a product, buy products online and have them shipped to your house (buying online and shipping products to your house uses less far less energy than driving a car to and from a store)
[image error]Pay with bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies if you can – using these non-inflationary currencies undermines our growth-dependent fractional reserve currency system


[image error]Go digital and paperless wherever possible – read books on a Kindle, get all your bills online, avoid printing things
[image error]Buy from co-ops, worker-owned businesses and B-Corps – support businesses that aren’t required to maximize profit above all else
[image error]Log your chemicals. For one day, make a list of all the chemicals that are going in and on your body—toothpaste, soap, shampoo, laundry detergents, household cleaners…. Then start eliminating those that you can and replacing them with natural alternatives.
[image error]Reduce Consumption of Plastics and Chemicals

[image error]Avoid the worst kinds of plastics: #3 plastic, PVC and Vinyl

[image error]Replace shower curtain with a glass door or an organic hemp shower curtain
[image error]Never buy vinyl toys for your kids – eg. vinyl beach balls


[image error]Shop with reusable canvas bags (instead of using disposable plastic bags)
[image error]Buy food from the bulk bins (and put them in stainless steel food canisters) instead of buying food in disposable plastic packaging or plastic-lined cans
[image error]Use a stainless steel water bottle (like a klean kanteen) (instead of plastic water bottles)
[image error]Drink coffee or tea instead of soda (to avoid plastic bottles and plastic-lined aluminum cans)
[image error]Drink coffee out of a ceramic mug or insulated stainless steel mug (like a klean kanteen) (instead of disposable plastic-lined and plastic-topped cups)
[image error]Buy local beer and fill up a growler (instead of buying beer in glass bottles or plastic-lined cans)

[image error]If you can’t fill up a growler, there is no clear sustainability winner between glass bottles and aluminum cans. Just buy local.


[image error]Eat meals with plates and silverware (instead of disposable containers and plastic silverware)
[image error]Bring your lunch to work (instead of buying lunch in disposable packaging)
[image error]Buy natural mosquito repellents instead of DEET repellents (a scientific study showed that Avon Skin-So-Soft Bug Guard worked just as well as DEET)




Product End-Of-Life

[image error]Attempt to repair it before you trash it – contact the manufacturer and see if they can repair it (many sustainable brands will repair or replace their products for free), learn how to repair things yourself
[image error]Reuse your old items for other purposes – eg. an old t-shirt can become a cleaning rag
[image error]Donate for reuse instead of throwing them away – use Goodwill, Salvation Army, Freecycle, Craigslist

 
Hobbies

[image error]Take up a hobby that fulfills the other items on this checklist: eg. gardening
[image error]Make your hobbies more sustainable

[image error]Instead of boating with a powerboat, learn how to sail
[image error]Instead of fishing with a power boat, fish with a kayak
[image error]Instead of golfing a conventional course with a golf cart, walk a sustainable golf course (one that uses native species, doesn’t irrigate the course and doesn’t use fertilizers or pesticides – the way golf was originally played)
[image error] Instead of snowmobiling, go cross country skiing
[image error] Instead of offroading or ATVing, go hiking




Reduce Your Exposure to Consumerist Advertising
Part of the reason that we don’t make sustainable consumer choices is that we are constantly bombarded with advertisements encouraging us to consume unsustainable products and services.  By blocking these advertisements we can reduce their influence on our purchasing decisions, thereby making it easier to live sustainably.

[image error]Eliminate Internet Ads

[image error]Install the AdBlock (adblockplus.org) and Disconnect (disconnect.me) plug-ins for your web browser on all of your computers (Free)

[image error]You can also use AdBlock to eliminate clutter on sites you frequently visit (eg. “recommended stories” and social sharing bars”) by right-clicking on them and choosing “block this ad”


[image error]Buy AdTrap (getadtrap.com) to block ads on your mobile and streaming devices at home ($140.00 – no monthly fee)
[image error]Install adblockers on your mobile devices ( Purify ) or set them up to use an ad-blocking proxy (speedmeup.net)


[image error]Eliminate TV Ads

[image error]Kill your TV – the easiest solution to avoiding television advertisement is to get rid of all of your TVs. The average American spends 2.8 hours per day watching TV. Use all that extra time to do something productive. Read a book instead.


[image error]Ditch your cable/satellite service (Save on average $1500 per year) – by replacing it with ad-blocked online streaming, you won’t see any ads ever again!

[image error]Buy a Roku ($95 – no monthly fee)
[image error]For movies and TV shows, sign up for Netflix ($8/month) and/or Hulu Plus ($8/month), Amazon Prime ($99/year)
[image error]Install Plex and run a plex server to watch your offline movies
[image error]For live sports:

Watch streams on a computer running ad-blocking software that is hooked up to your TV using an HDMI out
[image error]Check out the Cordcutters Reddit for the most up-to-date information on streaming sports
[image error]Use a VPN to avoid blackouts on streaming sports services – bonus: if you use an international VPN and there are still advertisements they’ll be in a different language so they won’t work on you!
[image error]Football: NFL Game Pass ($100/yr) and NFLstreams Reddit
[image error]Baseball: MLB.tv ($110/yr) –  MLBStreams Reddit
[image error]Basketball: NBA League Pass ($100/yr) and NBAstreams Reddit
[image error]Hockey: NHL Gamecenter ($170/yr) and  NHLStreams Reddit
[image error]Soccer: MLSLive ($80/yr) and SoccerStreams Reddit
[image error]College Football: CFBStreams Reddit
[image error]College Basketball: www.ncaa.com/march-madness‎ (free) and ncaaBBallStreams Reddit
[image error]Formula 1: BBC using a UK VPN and Reddit Formula1 Streaming Wiki
[image error]OtherSports: WatchESPN.com
[image error]If you still can’t find the game you want, walk over to your neighborhood bar (which should be easy since you should live in a walkable neighborhood already!)
[image error]Email or write a letter to the sports leagues and tell them that you want to pay for an ad-free game stream




[image error]Don’t take taxis with TVs in them – take a lyft or uber instead so you aren’t exposed to all of the ads


[image error]Eliminate Paper Ads

[image error]Block junk mail – whenever you receive catalogs or junk mail, log on to  catalogchoice.org  and halt any future deliveries
[image error]Remove your information from consumer databases – follow the advice in the book “Hiding from the Internet” to make it harder for advertisers to target you


[image error]Eliminate Radio Ads

Stop listening to live radio

Listen to music on paid streaming services (Google Play, Pandora, Spotify, etc.) or on satellite radio
Listen to podcasts or audio books instead of talk radio and manually skip commercials
Buy a Bluetooth kit for your car so you can listen to podcasts while driving

 

Get Involved With Your Community
“Life’s most persistent and urgent question is, ‘What are you doing for others?'” -Dr. Martin Luther King

[image error]Reduce TV time – TV viewing is shown in “bowling alone” to be one of the top reasons for reduced community involvement – start by making a rule of never turning on the TV unless you know what you want to watch and for how long – don’t be a channel-surfing TV “grazer”, be a specific-program “hunter” that only turns on the TV and watches exactly what they came to watch
[image error]Live in a walkable neighborhood – as shown in “bowling alone,” living in auto-centric neighborhoods is a main cause of decreased civic engagement
[image error]Meet your neighbors – invite them over for dinner or drinks
[image error]Discuss sustainability with your family, friends, neighbors, colleagues, etc. – start a transition streets initiative on your block




Sustainable Finance: Reduce Your Participation in the Fiat/Fractional-Reserve/Debt-Based/Growth-Dependent Monetary System
“Until you change the way money works, you change nothing.” -Michael Ruppert
Our current monetary system is at the root of our sustainability problem. Every major currency on earth (US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan etc.) is loaned into existence by government fiat through fractional-reserve banking (and sometimes printed or minted into existence through seigniorage). When money is loaned into existence, an increasing amount of money must be loaned into existence after it to pay off the principle as well as the interest. This system requires an infinitely -increasing amount of debt to be created or it will collapse. In order to stave off monetary collapse, this infinitely-increasing amount of debt requires an infinitely-increasing amount of economic growth to pay off the interest. An infinitely-increasing amount of economic growth requires an infinitely-increasing amount of resource extraction. An a finite planet we cannot have an infinitely-increasing amount of resource extraction, so we have an unsustainable monetary system. Sustainable currencies do not require an infinitely-increasing amount of debt. Examples of sustainable currencies are precious metals (some of our oldest forms of currency – gold, silver, etc.), local currencies (like Ithaca Hours) and finite-supply cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin and Dash).

[image error]Get out of debt –  exponential monetary growth through debt creation is the root cause of our sustainability problem – if you are a creditor instead of a debtor you can invest your money sustainability
[image error]Open a bank account at a sustainable community bank (like New Resource Bank) and close your old bank account at the “too big to fail” bank
[image error]Invest in sustainably-run companies
[image error]Start using non-debt-based cryptocurrencies for transactions – like Bitcoin and Dash (one of the anonymous cryptocurrencies I discuss in my book )

[image error]Buy some cryptocurrencies with each paycheck
[image error]Patronize establishments that accept bitcoins and local currencies – work hard to spend cryptocurrencies before you spend fiat currency
[image error]Get to know the owners of shops in your neighborhood and persuade store owners to accept bitcoins and local currencies


[image error]Use local currencies – Ithaca Hours, Bay Bucks, BerkShares, etc

[image error]Work with local currency organizations to increase adoption and econometric transparency (putting out data on money supply, velocity, etc)



 
Measure Your Progress
“What gets measured gets managed.” -Peter Drucker
Once you have data on your energy use and environmental impact you can engage in Kaizen continual process improvement

[image error]Measure Your Transportation

[image error]TripIt – Measure air travel
[image error]Automatic –  Measure car usage
[image error]Moves App – Measure walking, biking and public transit usage


[image error]Measure Your Home Energy Use

[image error]Belkin Wemo Insight Switch – Measure energy usage of your big electricity hogs (TV, Computer, Refrigerator)
[image error]Nest Thermostat – Measure HVAC usage
[image error]Smart meter – available through your utility (like PG&E)


[image error]Measure your home indoor air quality

[image error]Buy a home air quality monitor that can measure VOCs and Particulate Matter – Like Foobot




 

Some Sources:

Atul Gawande “The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right“
Chris Martenson “What Should I Do“
Grist “Wake Up and Smell the Planet“
Michelle Cottrell “Guide to the LEED AP Homes Exam“
Chris Martenson & Adam Taggart “Prosper!: How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting“
Benjamin Ross “Dead End: Suburban Sprawl and the Rebirth of American Urbanism“
Donald Shoup “The High Cost of Free Parking“
Jeff Speck  “Walkable City: How Downtown Can Save America, One Step at a Time“
Robert D. Putnam “Bowling Alone“
Michael Bazzell “Hiding from the Internet: Eliminating Personal Online Information“
Will Martin “Anonymous Cryptocurrencies: The rise of bitcoin alternatives that offer true anonymity“
Beth Terry “100 Steps to a Plastic-Free Life“
Greenwizards “The Green Wizards’ Collapse Checklist“
John Michael Greer “Green Wizardry“
Colin Beavan “No Impact Man“
Federico Pistono – “Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That’s OK“
Eric Sorensen – “Seven Wonders for a Cool Planet“
Rob Hopkins – “The Transition Handbook“


“Third Rails” I’m not touching in this list:

Religion
Politics
Death and Burial
Children and Birth Control
Pets

The post The Sustainability Checklist appeared first on WILLMARTIN.COM.

Record High US Gasoline Consumption and Sales of Muscle Cars, SUVs and Pickup Trucks

I’ve written before about demand destruction, but with gasoline prices at historic lows right now we are seeing the opposite: demand rebound. Gasoline sales in the United States are approaching all-time highs last seen right before the “great recession.” People are taking advantage of “cheap” gasoline and driving more. As we slowly recover from the recession (economists tell us the recession ended 5 years ago, but it seems like many areas still are recovering) more people are working and commuting more miles.

US Gasoline Consumption

Car sales are reaching record highs. Americans seem to have completely forgotten $5 gasoline are are buying more gas guzzlers than ever before. Below I charted out the sales of 21 models of muscle cars, full-sized pickup trucks and large SUVs with an average fuel economy amongst them of just 17 MPG. Since 2010, sales of these 21 models have put nearly 18 million new fuel-hungry vehicles on America’s roads. With an average fleet turnover time of 23 years (from a 4% scrappage rate), these cars will be on the road for many years to come.

Sales of Muscle Cars, SUVs and Pickup Trucks

 

Part of the reason for this increase in fuel-hungry vehicle sales is sub-prime lending, which John Oliver does a great job of explaining:

 

With global oil investment budgets being slashed by over $1 trillion dollars, it seems likely that the market will re-balance itself of the next few years and millions of Americans will be stuck with fuel-hungry vehicles as gasoline prices rise again.

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Supermajor Oil and Gas Production and CAPEX for Q2 2016

As part of my “peak supermajor” project, I discuss the oil and gas production and capital expenditure of the supermajor oil and gas companies from 1900 through the 2nd quarter of 2016.

Please leave me comments below.

The post Supermajor Oil and Gas Production and CAPEX for Q2 2016 appeared first on WILLMARTIN.COM.

Peak Supermajors 2Q2016 Results

Overview

Between 1999 and 2014 the liquid oil production rate for the supermajor oil and gas companies was on a steady decline. Between Q2-2014 to Q1-2016 this trend reversed, with liquids production increasing by over a million barrels per day. These increase in production came on the heels of ever-increasing capital investment, which peaked out in Q4-2013. Since this peak, quarterly supermajor capital investment has dropped by nearly 60%. With less capital invested each quarter it is likely that the total supermajor oil production will return to its long-term downward trend.

Indeed this past quarter may have shown the beginning of the reversal. Supermajor liquids production declined by 7% quarter-over-quarter and increased by less than 1% year-over-year from Q2-2015 to Q2-2016.

Recent Supermajor Liquids Production

 

Liquids Production

The supermajors’ liquids production rate for Q2-2016 was 8,931,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 52,802 barrels per day. Overall production peaked at 30,554,482 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajors liquids production rate has fallen by 70.8%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.8%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2034. The more recent peak occurred at 11,135,767 barrels per day in Q3-1999. Since reaching the second peak, Supermajors liquids production rate has fallen by 19.8%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 1.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2084.

 

Supermajor Oil Production

Gas Production

The supermajors’ natural gas production rate for Q2-2016 was 38,484,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 224,747,253 cubic feet per day. Overall production peaked at 47,339,390,527 cubic feet per day in Q1-2010. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajors natural gas production rate has fallen by 18.7%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 3.0%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2043.

Supermajor Gas Production

Capex

The supermajors’ capex spend for Q2-2016 was $25,326,000,000. Year-over-year, capex spending declined by $9,221,000,000. Overall capex spending peaked at $60,346,622,300 in Q4-2013. Since reaching this peak, supermajors capex spending has fallen by 58.0%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 25.1%.

Supermajor Capex

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Peak Supermajors 1Q2016 Results

Overview

Supermajor liquids production increased significantly year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. This is partly due to a large increase in capital expenditures by the supermajors from 2006 to 2013. Interestingly, this large increase in capital spending has not abated the drop in natural gas production. As supermajor CAPEX spending peaked in in the 4th quarter of 2013 and has dropped by over 50% since, it seems likely that both liquids production and gas production will continue to decline from the historical peaks of 1973 and 2010, respectively.

 

Liquids Production

The supermajors’ liquids production rate for Q1-2016 was 9,603,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 410,111 barrels per day. Overall production peaked at 30,554,482 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajors liquids production rate has fallen by 68.6%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.6%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2035. The more recent peak occurred at 11,135,767 barrels per day in Q3-1999. Since reaching the second peak, Supermajors liquids production rate has fallen by 13.8%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 0.9%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2119.

Supermajor Oil Production

 

Gas Production

The supermajors’ natural gas production rate for Q1-2016 was 40,572,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production declined by 1,858,333,333 cubic feet per day. Overall production peaked at 47,339,390,527 cubic feet per day in Q1-2010. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajors natural gas production rate has fallen by 14.3%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2052.

Supermajor Gas Production

 

Capex

The supermajors’ capex spend for Q1-2016 was $26,716,978,000. Year-over-year, capex spending declined by $10,519,623,400. Overall capex spending peaked at $60,346,622,300 in Q4-2013. Since reaching this peak, supermajors capex spending has fallen by 55.7%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 23.8%.

Supermajor CAPEX

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Peak Supermajors Introduction & 4Q2015 Result

Introduction

Today I would like to introduce my “Peak Supermajors” project. The goal of this project is to answer the question “when will we reach peak oil” by studying the production and financial health of the world’s largest oil companies. Because oil is a finite resource, its daily global production will eventually reach a peak. By measuring when individual oil companies reach peak oil, I hope to bring us closer to answering the question “when will we reach peak oil?”

I am beginning my project by analyzing the largest publicly-traded companies: the “supermajors“. These 5 companies – BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Total – produce nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas. They are mostly descendants from the original “Seven Sisters,” which themselves were largely descendants of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company. These companies are leaders in the industry, both financially and technologically. By understanding the history of these companies and their strategy for the future, we can better understand the historical arc of the broader oil industry. As I fill out the database I plan to expand it to include data from all of the largest global oil companies.

 

Seeing Oil on a Longer Time Horizon

One of my goals with this project is to expand the peak oil conversation to a longer time horizon. I am a member of the Long Now Foundation, an organization whose goal is to “provide a counterpoint to today’s accelerating culture and help make long-term thinking more common.” When I read news stories about the oil industry, the time horizon discussed always seems to be a financial quarter or (at most) a year. News stories talk about production changes “year on year” but never “decade on decade” or “since the company reached peak oil in 1972.” By collecting a database of multi-decade production data I hope to expand the quarterly production discussion to a longer time horizon.

 

Focus on Oil and Gas Production Individually 

When quarterly earnings are reported, financial news sites usually mention the change in the company’s “headline” production figure (if they mention production at all). This “headline” figure combines oil production with gas production by converting gas to “barrels of oil equivalent” based on its embedded energy content. This is worse than combining apples with oranges. Chris Martenson describes it “as if someone asked you how many calories you had stored in your pantry, and you lumped together not just your food, but also the batteries in your flashlights and other home electronics. They might have caloric energy equivalents, but you sure can’t eat them.”

Oil and gas are not used in the same way. Oil is used to produce liquid transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and marine “bunker fuel”) and to make lubricants. Natural gas is burned in power plants to make electricity and is converted by chemical plants into fertilizer and plastics. Due to the differences in outputs, oil and gas operate in very different competitive environments. Oil competes with biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel) and the electrification of transportation (electric cars, high speed rail). Gas competes with renewable electricity sources (wind, solar, hydropower, etc), organic fertilizers and bioplastics.

So instead of lumping oil and gas production together, I will be discussing them separately each quarter. Hopefully this will help steer the quarterly conversation away from “headline” numbers and towards an analysis of oil and gas production individually.

 

Seeing Peak Oil From Multiple Angles

This database fits into a multi-faceted way of measuring peak oil. There are many ways to slice-and-dice global oil production including measuring production by country, by field, and (now) by company. Each of these measurements allows us to better measure whether we are approaching peak oil, are at peak oil or have passed peak oil. For example, using a country-level production database like the BP Statistical Review of World Energy allows us to determine which countries have passed peak oil. Steve Andrews publishes an analysis annually using the BP data to summarize all of the “Pre- and Post-Peak Nations.” Once enough countries have reached peak oil, we will pass the global peak in oil production. Using field-level data from IHS (Wood Mackenzie offers a similar field-level database) the Energy Watch Group in Germany has produced a series of reports showing current and future peaks by oil producing region. Once enough fields have reached peak oil, we will pass the global peak in oil production. The third way of looking at peak oil is at a company level. Every single barrel of oil is produced by a company, whether it be a publicly-traded company like ExxonMobil or a privately-held national organization like Saudi Aramco. Once enough oil companies have reached peak oil, we will pass the global peak in oil production. Looking at company-level data is just another window into peak oil.

 

Data Sources and Future Work

My ultimate goal is to have a “full history” of production data for all of the supermajors. Because these companies can trace their origins to the very beginning of the oil industry, this means collecting over 100 years of data. To achieve this monumental task I began by collecting the most recent data from the company annual reports and SEC filings currently available online. I quickly learned that this data only goes back about 15 years and started searching for additional data sources. I found additional annual reports on company websites, online databases, archive.org, eBay, Amazon, Google Books, Google Scholar and the National Iranian Oil Company’s online library. I have also spent dozens of hours at Stanford’s Media & Microtext Center scanning microfiche copies of old annual reports. To fill in some of the gaps and double-check my work I relied on Richard Heede’s extensive database at carbonmajors.com as well as Oil and Gas Journal company surveys.

I now have a private collection of over 1,000 annual and quarterly reports for some of the world’s largest oil companies. I will continue to expand the database and improve its accuracy over time. The database now stands at tens of thousands of data points, with hundreds of thousands of metadata points backing up each datum. Along with collecting 100+ years of production data I’ve also been collecting 100+ years financial and operational data for each company. I am planning to use this data to perform long-term analysis. For example, how has capital efficiency changed over time? Have the supermajors reached “peak production per dollar of inflation-adjusted CAPEX spend?” How has employee productivity changed over the last 100 years? Have the supermajors reached “peak free cash flow per barrel of production?” Have they reached “peak production per employee?” These are just a few questions that I plan on analyzing. As I complete the analysis I am planning to submit my findings to the Oil Age journal (arguably the best source for peak oil research) for academic publication. In the interim I’m planning to publish these short updates on a quarterly basis to show the current amalgamated state of the supermajors’ oil and gas production rates.

The data accuracy is not perfect right now. I’m about 80% confident with the accuracy of the data – which I consider “good enough to blog” but not necessarily good enough to submit to an academic journal. I still have some data validation to do and I plan to complete a full statistical audit with a large enough sample size to get me to 95% confidence in the data accuracy. So for the time being take all of this with a grain of salt.

Before I begin, I would like to knowledge the amazing work of people who inspired me to begin this project. I was inspired by similar company-focused efforts by Richard Heede, Matt Mushalik and the researchers at the Energy Watch Group. I would also like to thank Mason Inman for helping me think through the idea.

If you are interested in keeping up-to-date on this project, please SUBSCRIBE using the link to the left.

On to the show…

 

Supermajors

The supermajors’ liquids production rate for Q4-2015 was 9,329,500 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 611,022 barrels per day. Overall oil production peaked at 30,554,482 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching peak oil, Supermajor liquids production rate has fallen by 69.5%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.7%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2034. The more recent peak occurred at 11,135,767 barrels per day in Q3-1999. Since reaching the second peak, Supermajor liquids production rate has fallen by 16.2%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 1.1%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2099.

[image error]

The supermajors’ natural gas production rate for Q4-2015 was 40,598,130,435 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production declined by 1,338,695,652 cubic feet per day. Overall oil production peaked at 47,339,390,527 cubic feet per day in Q1-2010. Since reaching this primary peak, Supermajor natural gas production rate has fallen by 14.2%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.6%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2050.

[image error]

ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil’s liquids production rate for Q4-2015 was 2,481,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 299,000 barrels per day. Overall oil production peaked at 7,010,929 barrels per day in Q1-1972. Since reaching peak oil, Exxon Mobil Corporation’s liquids production rate has fallen by 64.6%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2039. The more recent peak occurred at 2,803,460 barrels per day in Q1-2007. Since reaching the second peak, ExxonMobil’s liquids production rate has fallen by 11.5%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 1.4%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2083.

ExxonMobil’s natural gas production rate for Q4-2015 was 10,603,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production declined by 631,000,000 cubic feet per day. Overall gas production peaked at 14,652,000,000 cubic feet per day in Q4-2010. Since reaching this primary peak, Exxon Mobil Corporation’s natural gas production rate has fallen by 27.6%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 6.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2029.

Chevron

Chevron’s liquids production rate for Q4-2015 was 1,775,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 43,000 barrels per day. Overall oil production peaked at 10,718,904 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching peak oil, Chevron Corporation’s liquids production rate has fallen by 83.4%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 4.1%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2024. The more recent peak occurred at 2,273,819 barrels per day in Q4-1998. Since reaching the second peak, Chevron’s liquids production rate has fallen by 21.9%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 1.4%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2076.

Chevron’s natural gas production rate for Q4-2015 was 5,385,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 285,000,000 cubic feet per day. Overall gas production peaked at 13,472,131,148 cubic feet per day in Q1-1972. Since reaching this primary peak, Chevron Corporation’s natural gas production rate has fallen by 60.0%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.1%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2045.

 

BP

BP’s liquids production rate for Q4-2015 was 2,137,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 169,000 barrels per day. Overall oil production peaked at 6,362,701 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching peak oil, BP plc liquids production rate has fallen by 66.4%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.5%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2037. The more recent peak occurred at 3,084,248 barrels per day in Q3-1988. Since reaching the second peak, BP’s liquids production rate has fallen by 30.7%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 1.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2077.

BP’s natural gas production rate for Q4-2015 was 7,076,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production declined by 148,000,000 cubic feet per day. Overall gas production peaked at 10,128,700,000 cubic feet per day in Q1-2000. Since reaching this primary peak, BP plc’s natural gas production rate has fallen by 30.1%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.2%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2052.

 

Total

Total’s liquids production rate for Q4-2015 was 1,077,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 0 barrels per day. Overall oil production peaked at 1,560,000 barrels per day in Q1-2006. Since reaching peak oil, Total SA liquids production rate has fallen by 31.0%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 3.7%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2037. The more recent peak occurred at 1,560,000 barrels per day in Q1-2006. Since reaching the second peak, Total’s liquids production rate has fallen by 31.0%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 3.7%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2037.

Total’s natural gas production rate for Q4-2015 was 6,219,000,000 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 0 cubic feet per day. Overall gas production peaked at 6,312,000,000 cubic feet per day in Q1-2015. Since reaching this primary peak, Total SA’s natural gas production rate has fallen by 1.5%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.0%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2066.

 

Shell

Shell’s liquids production rate for Q4-2015 was 1,859,500 barrels per day. Year-over-year, production rose by 100,022 barrels per day. Overall oil production peaked at 5,887,671 barrels per day in Q1-1973. Since reaching peak oil, Royal Dutch Shell plc liquids production rate has fallen by 68.4%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 2.7%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2035. The more recent peak occurred at 2,584,870 barrels per day in Q3-2002. Since reaching the second peak, Shell’s liquids production rate has fallen by 28.1%. This represents a compounded annual decline rate of 2.5%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2049.

Shell’s natural gas production rate for Q4-2015 was 11,315,130,435 cubic feet per day. Year-over-year, production declined by 844,695,652 cubic feet per day. Overall gas production peaked at 13,940,791,209 cubic feet per day in Q1-2013. Since reaching this primary peak, Royal Dutch Shell plc’s natural gas production rate has fallen by 18.8%. This represents a post-peak compounded annual decline rate of 7.3%. If production continued to linearly decline at this rate, it would reach zero production in 2027.

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