Apocalypse Survival 101: Define the Level of Risk
©2016 C. Henry Martens
Apocalypse Survival 101Mental attitudeAssess the situationDefine the level of riskQuestions that need to be askedLocation, location, locationSkill setTimingThe realities in your support systemInventory of resourcesOdds versus priority
Apocalypse Survival 101: Define the Level of Risk
Learning to use a risk matrix is a valuable ability. Basically, you make a simple graph which lists two kinds of criteria along the top and one side. On the top, left to right, place the probability of an event occurring. Remote, Unlikely, Common, Probable, Certain. Next list the possible consequences of an event occurring down the left side, top to bottom. Negligible, Minor, Moderate, Significant, Severe. Fill in the squares with the concerns you perceive, those events you see as threats.
For instance, the chances of an extinction-level event from an asteroid hitting the earth is virtually one hundred percent, but during your lifetime (the area of your concern) virtually non-existent. So you would place that concern under Remote.
Next define the result of an earth killing asteroid hitting the earth. That would be under Severe.
Depending on where the event sits on your graph, it tells you the level of risk. In this case, since an asteroid is so unlikely in hitting the earth (to say nothing of what you might do to survive an event like this), the risk is very low.
Any other possibilities would fill the rest of the squares based on your assessments. One of my extreme concerns is an intentional plague. Some things have to come together to make it an imminent threat, so I place it under Probable and across from Severe. If you read my books you will understand why I classify this threat as the highest level of risk, but perhaps twenty years from now (more or less). An accidental plague is perhaps as likely.
You can use this kind of mental image to help in your every day life as well, just by changing the values to suit the kind of decision required. It is certainly a useful tool when making a budget for your personal finances. With practice the mental process will become familiar and second nature. That way, when an imminent threat makes a sudden appearance, you will automatically make better decisions.
Besides assigning value to a course of action, making decisions easier, thinking this way gets your mind comfortable with considering and identifying options. Too often an untrained mind will settle on only one solution, the first that comes to mind, and will not go beyond that idea. You would be surprised how many options there are in the simplest tasks. How many ways can you make pancakes? Different batters? Different berries? Different toppings? Thin, thick, large, small, rolled up with stuff inside, stacked…? You get the idea.
The use of a risk matrix is about defining whether you should run, hide, or plant a garden. It gives you realistic information so that you can consider the options available. We often ignore options because we are creatures of habit.
In an apocalypse, being a creature of habit can get you killed.
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www.readmota.com
Apocalypse Survival 101Mental attitudeAssess the situationDefine the level of riskQuestions that need to be askedLocation, location, locationSkill setTimingThe realities in your support systemInventory of resourcesOdds versus priority
Apocalypse Survival 101: Define the Level of Risk
Learning to use a risk matrix is a valuable ability. Basically, you make a simple graph which lists two kinds of criteria along the top and one side. On the top, left to right, place the probability of an event occurring. Remote, Unlikely, Common, Probable, Certain. Next list the possible consequences of an event occurring down the left side, top to bottom. Negligible, Minor, Moderate, Significant, Severe. Fill in the squares with the concerns you perceive, those events you see as threats.
For instance, the chances of an extinction-level event from an asteroid hitting the earth is virtually one hundred percent, but during your lifetime (the area of your concern) virtually non-existent. So you would place that concern under Remote.
Next define the result of an earth killing asteroid hitting the earth. That would be under Severe.
Depending on where the event sits on your graph, it tells you the level of risk. In this case, since an asteroid is so unlikely in hitting the earth (to say nothing of what you might do to survive an event like this), the risk is very low.
Any other possibilities would fill the rest of the squares based on your assessments. One of my extreme concerns is an intentional plague. Some things have to come together to make it an imminent threat, so I place it under Probable and across from Severe. If you read my books you will understand why I classify this threat as the highest level of risk, but perhaps twenty years from now (more or less). An accidental plague is perhaps as likely.
You can use this kind of mental image to help in your every day life as well, just by changing the values to suit the kind of decision required. It is certainly a useful tool when making a budget for your personal finances. With practice the mental process will become familiar and second nature. That way, when an imminent threat makes a sudden appearance, you will automatically make better decisions.
Besides assigning value to a course of action, making decisions easier, thinking this way gets your mind comfortable with considering and identifying options. Too often an untrained mind will settle on only one solution, the first that comes to mind, and will not go beyond that idea. You would be surprised how many options there are in the simplest tasks. How many ways can you make pancakes? Different batters? Different berries? Different toppings? Thin, thick, large, small, rolled up with stuff inside, stacked…? You get the idea.
The use of a risk matrix is about defining whether you should run, hide, or plant a garden. It gives you realistic information so that you can consider the options available. We often ignore options because we are creatures of habit.
In an apocalypse, being a creature of habit can get you killed.
Sign up to receive the Apocalypse Observer Newsletter in your inbox
www.readmota.com
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