Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention

It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November.

As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.

But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen at state or local party conventions a long way from Washington. Few will be household names, having quietly attended party gatherings in Fargo, North Dakota, or Cheyenne, Wyoming, for years with little remuneration or recognition. Although the proverbial Acela-riding insiders might dream of Ryan or Kasich, there are indications that the rank-and-file delegates are into Ted Cruz — and they’re the ones who will have votes in Cleveland.

To recap a bit, the Republican presidential voting process is separate from the delegate selection process in most states. In South Carolina, for instance, most delegates are selected through a series of county, congressional district and state conventions. Although those delegates are bound to Trump (who won the state’s primary on Feb. 20) on the first ballot, they could peel off and vote for another candidate after that.1

There are some states where delegates are selected directly on the ballot (as in Maryland, for instance) and others where slates are submitted by the candidates (as in New Hampshire) — these are a fairly small minority. Below, you’ll find a table showing the Republicans’ delegate selection method in all states and territories, according to the Republican Party’s rulebook.

TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTENOT TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTESTATE OR TERRITORYBY CANDIDATESON PRIMARY BALLOTAT STATE OR LOCAL CONVENTIONSBY STATE OR LOCAL PARTY COMMITTEESRNC MEMBERSAlabama473Alaska253American Samoa63Arizona553Arkansas12253California1693Colorado343Connecticut253Delaware133D.C.163Florida81153Georgia733Guam63Hawaii163Idaho293Illinois54123Indiana543Iowa273Kansas373Kentucky433Louisiana433Maine203Maryland24113Massachusetts27123Michigan563Minnesota353Mississippi373Missouri493Montana243Nebraska333Nevada273New Hampshire203New Jersey483New Mexico213New York923North Carolina693North Dakota253No. Mariana Isl.63Ohio633Oklahoma403Oregon253Pennsylvania54*143Puerto Rico203Rhode Island163South Carolina473South Dakota263Tennessee41143Texas1523Utah373Vermont133Virgin Islands63Virginia463Washington413West Virginia313Wisconsin24153Wyoming263Total2593981,358289168Share of total10%16%55%12%7%How are Republican delegates chosen?

* 54 Pennsylvania delegates are directly elected but unbound to any candidate.

SOURCE: Republican National Committee Presidential Process Planning Book

Without getting too lost in the details,2 there are five major delegate selection methods:

Candidates choose their delegates (10 percent of delegates). In some states, candidates name a slate of delegates. These states include California, making it even more important to the Republicans’ delegate math; delegates won in California are likely to remain loyal to their candidates longer than in most places.Directly elected (16 percent of delegates). Other delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen directly on the primary ballot. Usually, the ballot indicates which candidate the delegate prefers, and the delegates are bound to that candidate. An important exception is Pennsylvania, where 54 delegates will be elected on the ballot as uncommitted.

In these first two cases, there’s a strong link between the presidential preference vote and delegate selection. The link isn’t perfect —