Jonathan Clements's Blog, page 241
December 26, 2021
Hits 2017-21
Terms of the Trade (2019) by Jim Wasserman
Nobody Told Me (2020) by Jonathan Clements
Farewell Money (2019) by Richard Quinn
He Gets, She Gets (2020) by James McGlynn
Don't Delay (2020) by Dennis Friedman
12 Investment Sins (2020) by John Lim
The Taxman Cometh (2020) by James McGlynn
Still Learning (2019) by Richard Quinn
Skimping on Cash (2021) by Jonathan Clements
This Too Shall Pass (2020) by Richard Connor
An F in Retirement (2021) by Mike Drak
My Four Goals (2020) by Jonathan Clements
Don't Get an F��(2019) by James McGlynn
27 Things to Do Now (2020) by Jonathan Clements
Farewell Yield (2020) by Jonathan Clements
Enough Already (2017) by Jonathan Clements
Flunking the Test (2020) by Richard Connor
Ten Commandments��(2018) by Richard Quinn
The Tipping Point (2018) by Jonathan Clements
Ten Years Retired (2020) by Richard Quinn
The Bogle Method (2021) by Jonathan Clements
45 Steps to Success (2019) by Jonathan Clements
Unanswered (2018) by Jonathan Clements
Price Protection (2021) by John Lim
Don't Overdo It (2021) by Jonathan Clements
The $121,500 Room (2018) by Joel M. Schofer
When Cash Is King (2021) by William Bernstein
State of Taxation (2020) by Richard Connor
Making It Last (2021) by Dennis Friedman
About That 4% (2020) by Richard Quinn
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Whither Crypto?
What if folks got in later in the year? Despite being all over the financial press and having inked all sorts of sponsorship deals���including the naming rights to what was once the Staples Center in Los Angeles���total crypto market cap today is pretty much unchanged from the peaks reached in May and September, and down somewhat from the Nov. 11 all-time high. Still, total crypto market cap is up 211% year-to-date.
Some investors keep a close eye on the two stalwarts in crypto land: bitcoin and ether. Those coins rallied sharply before the stock market close on Thursday. Santa came early for so-called HODLers, those holding on for dear life to their cryptocurrencies. Tech stocks also rose on the final trading day before Christmas.
CNBC���s Brian Kelly noted that bitcoin���s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq Composite index is 47%���the highest since September. Kelly contends bitcoin might be more correlated with the stock market in the coming years as institutions accept it as a traditional asset.
If that thesis plays out, owning cryptocurrencies might lose some of its luster going forward. After all, if virtual currencies will simply move with share prices, then the diversification benefit diminishes.
Next year will be yet another fascinating one for cryptos, especially given that massive gains have been made, but recent performance has been lukewarm. Next year will also be a period of tightening credit conditions if the Federal Reserve has its way. On top of that, there will almost certainly be less fiscal stimulus sloshing around. Those were tailwinds earlier this year but will be headwinds in 2022.
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In the Clown Car
Consider recency bias, which is investors��� tendency to extrapolate from recent experience. When the market���s been going up, we tend to believe it���ll keep going up. When it's in a rut, it���s hard to imagine what might make it go up again.
This year, however, has seen an unusual mix of data. Many financial metrics have been positive, including GDP growth, corporate profits and unemployment. But we���ve also seen rising inflation and we���re living under the constant cloud of new COVID variants. As a result, recency bias has been replaced by a sort of Rorschach test. Optimists see an economy that, despite the pandemic, is fundamentally healthy. Pessimists, on the other hand, see a supply chain that remains snarled. They note that dozens of stocks are in negative territory this year despite the overall market averages being��positive. Result: Many investors are unsure what to think.
In one sense, this is good. Recency bias is often a trap, so this year���s conflicting signals are a positive insofar as they help us avoid extrapolating market developments in either direction with too much confidence. In other words, the silver lining of an up-and-down market is that it provides a useful reminder that the market can and does move to the beat of its own drum. We should never be too sure that tomorrow will look like today. As we head into 2022, I think that���s one useful lesson to keep in mind.
Anchoring is another bias that���s been a challenge for investors this year. What���s anchoring? Suppose you own a stock that you bought at $650 a year ago and today it���s trading at $1,000. Most people would be happy with this result and happy to sell it at this level. But if the stock had been trading at $1,200 a few months ago and has since fallen back, you might be upset, even though you've made money since buying the shares for $650. If you own Tesla shares, these numbers might look familiar. But this phenomenon isn���t limited to Tesla. In today���s environment, owners of many stocks���especially those of highflying companies in tech and biotech���are struggling with the effects of anchoring.
Fortunately, there���s a straightforward solution: rebalancing. If you have a target asset allocation for your portfolio���say, 70% stocks and 30% bonds���you don���t need to worry so much about where any investment has been. Instead, you simply need to look at your��current��allocation, compare it to your portfolio targets and rebalance accordingly.
Another bias to consider is what retired poker champion Annie Duke calls ���resulting.��� The idea: It���s a mistake to judge the quality of a decision solely by its outcome. That���s because of the large dose of luck���sometimes positive, sometimes negative���that impacts every investment outcome. Good decisions can have bad outcomes due to bad luck, while bad decisions can have good outcomes simply because of good luck.
Let���s come back to Tesla. If you���d invested your entire net worth in the company���s shares at any point over the past 10 years, you would have beaten the overall market by many thousands of percent. But you would only know that with the benefit of hindsight. Yes, the result would have been great. But to call such a large, undiversified bet a good��decision��would be an example of resulting.
By the same token, if you���d started out 2021 by taking a more balanced approach���investing carefully via dollar-cost averaging and diversifying globally���your results would have trailed the overall market and certainly trailed Tesla. You would have been better off concentrating your bets on a handful of tech stocks and doing nothing else. But again, that���s only with the benefit of hindsight. That would be resulting.
In a year like we���ve just had���a year in which ���meme stocks��� entered our vocabulary���investors may be more susceptible than usual to resulting. The lesson: As you evaluate your portfolio, try hard to consider not just your results, but also your decisions. To put it another way, it���s okay to take a balanced approach to your investments in 2022 even if you saw people make fortunes doing the��craziest things��in 2021.
Perhaps the most famous concept in behavioral finance is Prospect Theory, developed in the 1970s by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They were the first to recognize that people dislike losses about twice as much as they enjoy gains. For example, an investor would need to experience a 10% gain to offset the pain of a 5% loss. Just as anchoring has upset many investors this year, so too has our disproportionate aversion to losses.
Consider the S&P 500���s monthly returns this year: In January, it was down. Then it went up for seven months in a row. After that, it oscillated between negative and positive for four months. As I��noted��a few weeks back, the market sometimes even alternates between negative and positive on a daily basis. That���s normal. But because of Prospect Theory, it can nonetheless be upsetting. Also, if you���re like most people and have seen your portfolio grow in recent years, the losses in dollar terms are now larger when the market has a down day.
What���s the solution? I used to have a colleague who started her review of any investment by looking at a 10-year chart. Then she���d shorten the timeframe to five years and then three. Only then would she look at a one-year chart. Her objective was to avoid evaluating anything through too narrow a lens. That approach, I think, makes a lot of sense. That���s because the reality is that you could find a timeframe over which virtually any investment will look like the world���s best investment or the world���s worst.
The bottom line: It would be glib to say the solution is to avoid looking at your investments too frequently. For many people, that���s easier said than done. But when you do look, I recommend taking my colleague���s approach. Never mind what an investment has done lately. Instead, ask what it���s done for you over the entire period that you���ve owned it.
How much should you really care about behavioral biases? According to a recent��study��by Morningstar, the impact is real���and it can be significant.

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December 25, 2021
Juice from Lemons
By contrast, tax-loss harvesting is difficult to implement with individual stocks. Is there a ���nearly identical��� investment for a company such as Tesla or Amazon? Furthermore, tax-loss harvesting only applies to taxable accounts, not tax-sheltered ones, which is where Americans hold the bulk of their retirement savings.
Still, there���s a long-term strategy that investors can employ to capitalize on losing investments���including individual stocks���that���s tailor-made for tax-deferred accounts. The strategy: Perform a Roth conversion of the temporarily (we hope) down and out investment.
To see how this works, imagine you invested $20,000 in Alibaba stock (symbol: BABA) within your IRA at the beginning of 2021. After this year���s beating, your holding is now worth just $10,000. If you still believe in the stock and plan to hold it long term, a Roth conversion of your Alibaba stock could make a lot of sense.
If your marginal tax bracket is, say, 22%, you would owe $2,200 in taxes (22% of $10,000) on the Roth conversion. But once the stock is in your Roth IRA, you���ll never owe taxes on it again. If the stock soars in value over the next decade���the best-case scenario���you just saved yourself a bundle in future taxes.
I believe this strategy is underutilized for behavioral reasons. First, there���s inertia. It takes work to file the necessary paperwork to do the Roth conversion. Second, humans are strongly present-biased. The tax savings from this strategy, however generous, won���t be enjoyed for years or even decades. But the pain of paying taxes on the conversion today is front and center in our minds. Finally, it���s painful to attend to our losing investments. Our pride is at stake.
Behavioral quirks aside, there���s a little discussed downside to holding investments inside a Roth account. If the investment does poorly���say Alibaba is nationalized and your stock becomes worthless���you absorb the entire loss. Not so for investments held in a traditional IRA or 401(k). In these accounts, you and the Treasury are effectively investment partners, since the federal government has a partial tax claim on every dollar inside a traditional retirement account. If your account balance falls, so too does your tax liability.
Individual stocks can and do occasionally go to zero. A broadly diversified index fund, on the other hand, will never suffer that fate. Hence, it���s probably safer to use this strategy for diversified investments such as mutual funds, particularly index funds. For instance, given the drubbing that emerging market stocks have undergone this year, emerging markets funds may now be great candidates for this strategy.
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December 24, 2021
A Man Possessed
I now have a firm idea of what they are, thanks to a ruthless process of subtraction. I���ve spent the past four months throwing out and selling countless things I don���t greatly care about.��What remains?
There are things I���m extremely fond of: the Edwardian loveseat and armchairs originally purchased by my parents and which moved with them from England in 1966. The dining room table that was likely owned by my great-great-grandfather, who was one of the richest men in England when he died. A Queen Anne desk, originally bought by my mother. Some oil paintings of moderate value. My all-carbon bicycle, which has the ability to make me feel decades younger.
But while I like these things a great deal, I don���t love them. In fact, for the right price, I would probably say goodbye to all of them. Therein lies the problem. No, the problem isn���t that I would part with them. Rather, the problem is that others would also value them.
They may have sentimental value to me, but they potentially have real value to others���and that real value crowds out my sentimental value, leaving me somewhat ambivalent. In my perhaps twisted thinking, some object doesn���t rise to the level of lovable if it could be so easily liked by others.
Instead, the possessions I treasure most are things of almost no value to others: The teddy bear I had as a baby and which now sits on top of my bedroom armoire, surveying the room. The ugly mug given to me one birthday by my son, and

These items would have little or no value for others, but for me they are priceless. Does that mean I equate zero monetary value with great sentimental value? Not at all.��Rather, the items in the accompanying photograph have survived the test of time. Many other items of inconsequential value��have passed through my hands over the decades and been discarded���because they��held little or no meaning. What remains are those things that recall times, places and people that are important to me.
Will you find something of comparable personal value under the tree today? I wouldn���t count on it. Instead, the items you���ll one day treasure will come into your hands almost carelessly���and you���ll know they���re valuable because somehow they never leave.
Latest Posts
HERE ARE THE SIX other articles published by HumbleDollar this week:
"Retirement is about choices," says Mike Drak. "One of the most important is what kind of person do you want to be as you age. Do you want to be a grumpy old man���or like Scrooge on Christmas day?"
If you're leaving your job and your employer offers COBRA coverage, you can turn that to your advantage. How? Logan Murray read the fine print���and saved himself almost $1,000.
"As a kid, I remember people joking about the notion of double reverse psychology," writes Adam Grossman. "But in many ways, that seems to be the stock market���s specialty."
When picking health insurance, Rick Connor favors high-deductible plans with low premiums. But he discovered they aren't always the best bet���if you're in the plan for less than a year.
How to separate consumers from their hard-earned dollars? The latest contender: BNPL. Phil Kernen takes a look at Buy Now Pay Later.
"Even though most of us aren���t surprised that giving makes us happier, we still default to the opposite behavior���and think spending on ourselves will lead to greater satisfaction," says Matt C. White.
Also be sure to check out the past week's��blog posts, including Ron Wayne on wish lists, Jim Wasserman on training the mind, Mike Zaccardi on stocks at year-end, Dick Quinn on living simply, Kyle McIntosh on tax-loss harvesting and Don Southworth on playing Santa Claus.

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Santa Claus Rally
THERE ARE FEW certainties in life, but December always brings a few. Our neighbors will decorate their houses with bright lights, our mailbox will be stuffed with letters asking for charitable donations and the financial pundits will speculate whether there���ll be a Santa Claus rally this year.
If you���re a regular reader of HumbleDollar, you know that a Santa Claus rally has the potential to fill our portfolios with extra dollars via higher stock and mutual fund prices. But the Santa Claus rally I want to share has been much more valuable to me than a few extra percentage points added to my net worth.
I was in my early 20s and slowly putting my life back together after bankrupting myself with my compulsive gambling addiction. As the holidays came around, I began feeling lonely and even more depressed than usual. I had lost my money, my girlfriend and most of my self-esteem. A friend suggested I spend Thanksgiving delivering meals to seniors who couldn���t get out of the house. For at least one day, I forgot myself and felt good because of the smiles and joy my deliveries had brought.
The Christmas season was going to be even harder. I���m the kind of guy who watches all the holiday movies and cartoons and can���t get enough of the spirit of giving. I decided to leverage my Thanksgiving learnings. I went to the costume shop and bought the most expensive Santa suit I could find. If I had a financial advisor back then, she would have warned against adding the equivalent of a week���s pay to my credit card debt. But more than 35 years later, I can say it was one of the best purchases I ever made.
I soon became a volunteer in the Santa Claus helper patrol. I dressed up for parties and for friends. On Christmas Day, a friend dressed up as an elf and we drove around the Bay Area bringing good will and joy to friends and strangers along the way. It���s hard to describe the look in children���s and even adults��� eyes when they look into Santa���s eyes. Twinkling and shining are apt adjectives. The joy in my heart was even bigger. While Christmas Day was fun, my biggest learning and memory came the following year.
That year, the office where I worked hosted a Christmas party for a group of 20 children who had been orphaned and were awaiting placement in foster homes. These kids ranged in age from six months to 12 or 13. Some were disfigured or had fresh scars from recent beatings. A few were disabled and needed assistance.
My job at the party was to hand out presents that the people in our office had purchased for each kid. As I���Santa���made my entrance, I hugged as many kids as I could find, while giving a hearty ���ho ho ho��� and wishing everyone a Merry Christmas. One little boy, who was probably five or six years old and who, believe it or not, was named Don, gave Santa the biggest and strongest hug he had ever felt, and then said, ���Santa, I love you.���
Everywhere Santa went, little Don followed. He hung on Santa���s leg and tugged on Santa���s pants. Frankly, the kid started to annoy me. When Santa sat down to hand out the gifts, little Don ran to the front of the line to sit on Santa���s knee first and to get his presents. ���Ah ha,��� the man behind the beard thought, ���now he���ll go and play with his presents and leave me alone.���
But when Santa gave Don his gifts, Don ran over to a little boy who was in a wheelchair and couldn���t make it to Santa���s lap. Don gave the boy the presents, ran back to Santa���s lap, hugged him hard, told him he loved him again and never asked for another gift. Behind my beard and makeup were tears that, luckily, little Don couldn���t see. I had thought that he was only interested in presents, not Santa or the other kids. Although I gave out the presents that day, little Don showed and gave big Don the greatest gift of all���the gift of love.
I, of course, hope our finances enjoy a Santa Claus rally this year. But there���s a bigger Santa rally that I wish for you, no matter what winter holiday you do or don���t celebrate. I���m talking about the rally���the inspiration���that comes from sharing your time and your love. I can���t promise your portfolio will get bigger in the next few days. But I can guarantee that, if you remember to give some love, your heart will grow larger.
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Christmas All Year
I GAVE THE BEST PEP talk I could muster, but it didn���t help. Our family of four entered Walmart in solidarity, planning to buy gifts to fill an Operation Christmas Child shoebox. Two of us left early in disarray.
I had to wrestle my screaming two-year-old all the way to the car because she knew only one way to approach the toy department���with herself in mind. Eliza melted down over her refusal to part with a cheap plastic toy. As much as we romanticize the idea of giving, it seems we have a hard time actually doing it.
A growing body of research shows that giving does more for us than spending. It sparks various psychological and physiological benefits, including pleasure, greater sustained happiness and decreased likelihood of depression.
What���s peculiar about such findings is that, even though most of us aren���t surprised to hear that giving makes us happier, we still default to the opposite behavior���and think spending on ourselves will lead to greater satisfaction.
If giving doesn���t come naturally, wouldn���t it make sense to study how to get better at it? How can we get ourselves to give more? The fact is, if our aim is to maximize money���s utility for bettering our lives, then giving is the lever we need to pull.
Unfortunately, I doubt that studying the research���no matter how convincing���will help much. Perhaps logic and reason could sway an open mind seeking to make an informed decision, but it���s powerless against those whose minds are already made up. In the movie��Home Alone, I don���t think Kevin McCallister could have changed Harry and Marv���s ways with a detailed presentation on the benefits of giving.
If logic won���t work, perhaps emotion can. Christmas is an emotional time. It is, after all, the season of giving. When we open our hearts and feel a personal connection with those we���re helping, we���re more likely to follow through on our charitable intentions. Like Ebenezer Scrooge, we would do well to let Christmas remind us to be more empathetic and grateful people.
But while emotion is a powerful motivator, it���s also fleeting���just as the holiday season comes and goes. Does Christmas really do no more for our giving conundrum than spur some extra kindness and charity during the year���s final month? My contention: If we take the time to explore why we have this thing called Christmas, perhaps we could also change our ways.
Let���s face it, our proclivity toward me-centered living stands in embarrassing contrast to the humility of Jesus, who we���re supposedly celebrating each Dec. 25. The pageantry of Christmas���the stable, the shepherds, the angels, the baby in the manger���is beautiful and sacred, but it���s just one chapter in a grander story. The baby grew up, and he said and did some pretty stunning things, and left the most indelible mark history has ever seen. I���m an apprentice of Jesus, the most extravagant of all givers. Guided by my faith, giving has become a prominent part of my life���and not giving would be difficult.
To me, Christmas means hope that we can become more like Jesus and can revolutionize our giving���and our entire relationship with money���so we can get maximum satisfaction out of it. Whoever you give to this holiday season, I���d encourage you to think about how much joy it gives you, and how much richer your life would be if giving became a 12-month-a-year habit. That way, the warm glow of Christmas can last long after Santa hangs up his red suit���and even long after we box up the Nativity scene.

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December 23, 2021
Chance of a Lifetime
Even though we���re having to deal with the fallout from COVID-19, I like my life. I wouldn���t want to turn back the clock and be young again. I enjoy being 70. It���s a good age to be if you have your health and financial independence.
My wife and I are at a time in our lives where we finally have the freedom to do the things we want to do. Both of our families are doing well. They don���t need us as caregivers or babysitters. It���s our turn to live our lives the way we want to.
It���s an opportunity that comes once in a lifetime for many people. We���re determined to take full advantage of it. I���m not going to jeopardize it in any way. That���s why I have an investment portfolio of 40% stocks, 55% bonds and 5% cash. Some may argue a portfolio like that is too conservative. But I���m thinking that you only need to reach financial freedom once. Why risk losing it?
I get that inflation is a major threat to our financial security. But an investment portfolio like ours should have enough stocks to ward off that threat. According to Vanguard Group���s asset allocation models, a portfolio with a similar mix of stocks and bonds had an average annual return of 8.2% from 1926 to 2020. Even if returns are somewhat lower going forward, we should be just fine.
At this point, I feel our most valuable commodity isn���t our stocks and bonds, but our health. That���s what I worry about. Without our health, we wouldn���t have the freedom to do the things we want to do.
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On the Receiving End
Here are some basic numbers for context. As of December 2020, the U.S. population was 329,484,123. The population age 65 or older was 55,659,365, or 16.9% of the total. The SSA provides benefits to retirees, their survivors and disabled citizens. In certain situations, children may also receive benefits. Roughly one in five of us is receiving some form of Social Security benefit���65 million in all. About 49 million receive Social Security retirement benefits, six million receive survivor benefits and 9.5 million receive disability benefits.
Have you ever wondered which state has the largest population receiving benefits, by percentage of population? That would be West Virginia at 26.4%. The state with the lowest portion of the population receiving benefits is Alaska at 14.6%.
Considering a tropical retirement? You can join 22,576 of your countrymen who are receiving their retirement benefits while enjoying life in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Among U.S. territories, Puerto Rico has the largest number of recipients at a little over 800,000.
I took a close look at my home state of Pennsylvania. Here���s what I found:
12,783,254 total population
2,447,687 population 65 and older
90.5% of those 65-plus receive benefits, or 2,215,157 total
Among all 2,877,728 Pennsylvanians receiving benefits, 2,056,241 are retirees, 90,913 are spouses of retirees, 26,011 are children of retirees, 259,513 are collecting survivor benefits, and 445,050 are disabled workers and their families.
Whenever I���m concerned about Social Security���s future, all I need do is think about how many citizens rely on the program. Chances are either we, or someone close to us, are receiving benefits. This segment of the population also happens to turn out in large numbers at election time.
According to the 2020 presidential election voting tables from the U.S. Census Bureau, voter turnout was highest among those ages 65 to 74. This gives me hope that Congress will eventually make changes to shore up Social Security���because politicians won���t want to risk the wrath of their constituents who are most likely to vote.
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Last-Minute Selling
What have I been up to? First, I logged on to my Schwab account and reviewed my year-to-date realized gains and losses. I had generated $8,000 in long-term capital gains earlier in 2021 by selling an appreciated exchange-traded fund. While I knew I was generating a gain at the time, I postponed any tax-loss selling���until now.
My next move was to look across my portfolio for any unrealized losses that could offset my $8,000 gain. Fortunately���although, at the same time, unfortunately���I was sitting on a sizable unrealized loss from a hotel-focused real-estate investment trust. I made the most of this negative position by selling a portion to fully offset the capital gain generated earlier in the year. Now, I���m contemplating selling more of this position to have a net capital loss of $3,000 in 2021. A net capital loss of up to $3,000 can be used to offset ordinary income.
My final step: Think about next year. In my case, I won���t have a material change in my income next year, so I���m not making any further moves in 2021. The situation is different for a close friend whose portfolio I recently reviewed. She���ll see her 2022 income spike because of a capital gain from a pending real estate transaction. Because of that gain, any capital gains from portfolio moves in 2022 will likely be taxed at 20%. As she���s looking to diversify away from stocks, she decided to take some gains in 2021 on a heavily appreciated S&P 500 fund. By making this move in 2021, she saves herself a decent amount, because the gains will be taxed at the lower rate of 15%.
A final note on last-minute selling: It���s the ���trade date������or the date on which a trade is executed���that dictates the year in which a gain or loss is calculated for tax purposes. As such, those of you who love to procrastinate can delay tax-related portfolio moves until Friday, Dec. 31.
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